Updated 12.04.22 @ 3:22p
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Category: Winter thoughts…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-update-on-the-remainder-of-december-1st-half-of-january/
Nov 26
After November’s Cold “Jab,” Is The Stage Set For Winter To Set In?
Updated 11.26.22 @ 6a
November opened well above normal on the temperature front. The first (11) days of the month featured above to well above average conditions, including multiple days with highs into the 70s. A dramatic change followed, thanks to a strong frontal passage on the 11th. The following (10) days were made up of well below normal temperatures, including a few days that didn’t feature highs getting out of the lower 30s. We’re now back to an overall milder than normal time to close out the month (IND officially is running right at “average” as of this post despite the wild swings).
Wild temperature swings are common in the fall and at times those can continue into December. With that said, despite a relatively mild first few days of the month, we continue to believe December ’22 will be made up of more sustained cold than the majority of the Decembers we’ve come to know over the past decade.
Our research from summer began to highlight reasoning for this idea and now that we’re front and center, we note the important pattern “drivers” aligning in such a manner that will likely lead to cold overwhelming our pattern as we move deeper into the month. The negative EPO, combined with the anticipated MJO movement through the traditionally cold phases ups the ante for a wintry stretch as the holidays kick into high gear. Add in a negative PNA (at least initially) and that should provide enough resistance from storms simply bypassing us to the south. Simply put, we believe the chances are high for 1 or 2 accumulating wintry events in the Dec. 5-15 time period. Thereafter, the thought here is that the cold grows stronger and likely deeper into the south.
It’s hard to argue with the overall look of the GEFS Extended below. If anything, I would anticipate the model (and others) correcting colder for mid and late December, especially with the idea of an expanding snow pack taking shape.
Indianapolis averages 6.4″ of snow each December. We feel that the pattern supports above average snow this December to combine with the anticipated persistent below normal temperatures.
Not sure we can get to the level of December ’00 cold (a chief analog year), but it’s fun to see shades of the past providing hints to the future…
At the very least, fans of wintry weather around the holidays can’t ask for a better pattern setup than the stage that’s being set this year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/after-novembers-cold-jab-is-the-stage-set-for-winter-to-set-in/
Nov 03
LR Update: Alignment For A Wintry Stretch Through The Holiday Season?
Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/
Oct 25
The Expected November Transition…
Updated 10.25.22 @ 5:08p
(A friendly reminder that our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Friday morning).
When we look at our top 2 analog years (’75-’76 and ’00-’01), we note a couple of common themes in November: cooler than normal anomalies were favored across the West while the East was favored warmer than normal. Note the temperature scale differences at the key on the bottom of both images.
Another common theme in these Novembers? Cold started bleeding east mid and late month, which eventually set up cold, wintry Decembers and a fast start to winter across the Mid West, Great Lakes, and East.
The new European Weeklies hold the ridge east through the 1st half of November. Given the EPO, PNA, and MJO (not to mention analogs above), there’s no reason to disagree with this. In fact, early November will likely still include some 70° days, if not flirt with 75°+.
Notice what transpires as we rumble into late November and early December: A totally different look at 500mb as a trough begins to form in the exact same place the persistent ridge will reside to open the month. Winter enthusiasts have to also love the look of high latitude blocking.
Wholesale pattern “transitions” can be finicking and will require close attention as we get to mid month and closer to Thanksgiving. From this distance, there’s no reason not to think our longstanding idea of a mid month colder shift has merit. Then, it’ll be time to understand how the vastly different sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) may impact the December and quick start to winter idea.
More on this and the winter as a whole Friday morning!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-expected-november-transition/
Oct 13
LR Update: Closing Out Fall And Looking Ahead To December…
Updated 10.13.22 @ 8:54p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-closing-out-fall-and-looking-ahead-to-december/