Category: Winter thoughts…

Feb 27

Spring “Tease” Just That; Long, Long Road Ahead…

Updated 02.27.23 @ 6:15p

Temperatures are running around 7° above normal at IND February to-date, and the first few days of March will also get off to a well above normal start. Winter, as a whole, aside from the bitter pre-Christmas blast, has been absolutely forgettable to most winter weather enthusiasts. I suppose it only makes sense that just as most are ready for “stick and hold” spring weather to show itself, we are seeing the best alignment and most bullish signal for persistent anomalous cold from a variety of pattern drivers all winter long. 😉

Long time IndyWx viewers know that this is the time of year we lean heaviest of NAO impacts, particularly if in a negative state. Latest long range data places the NAO in a negative state for the better part of the upcoming (6) weeks:

This strongly argues for more of a persistent eastern trough, including below normal temperatures and an active storm track, thanks to the busy Pacific pattern.

Secondly, and we really should have started with this one, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is finally set to rotate into the traditionally cold phases (8 and then 1) as we flip the page to the 2nd week of March and beyond. This should eventually translate into a widespread cold pattern, including the East, with an active coast-to-coast storm track continuing. Also note the high latitude blocking emerging as we transition into Phase 1.

Throw in a negative WPO, and this further backs up the widespread cold, active pattern. Similar to the NAO chart to open this piece, the majority of the (6) week period is spent in a negative state. Pattern alignment…

Add in all of this and there’s no wonder the most updated (as of this afternoon) European Weeklies are banging the drum, quite loudly I might add, for a prolonged period of colder than normal weather from mid-March through mid-April. Don’t put away that cold weather gear- or snow shovels just yet…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/spring-tease-just-that-long-long-road-ahead/

Dec 09

LR Update: Pattern Discussion Through December And Into January…

Updated 12.09.22 @ 4:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-pattern-discussion-through-december-and-into-january/

Dec 04

Sunday Afternoon Update On The Remainder Of December – 1st Half Of January…

Updated 12.04.22 @ 3:22p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-update-on-the-remainder-of-december-1st-half-of-january/

Nov 26

After November’s Cold “Jab,” Is The Stage Set For Winter To Set In?

Updated 11.26.22 @ 6a

November opened well above normal on the temperature front. The first (11) days of the month featured above to well above average conditions, including multiple days with highs into the 70s. A dramatic change followed, thanks to a strong frontal passage on the 11th. The following (10) days were made up of well below normal temperatures, including a few days that didn’t feature highs getting out of the lower 30s. We’re now back to an overall milder than normal time to close out the month (IND officially is running right at “average” as of this post despite the wild swings).

Wild temperature swings are common in the fall and at times those can continue into December. With that said, despite a relatively mild first few days of the month, we continue to believe December ’22 will be made up of more sustained cold than the majority of the Decembers we’ve come to know over the past decade.

Our research from summer began to highlight reasoning for this idea and now that we’re front and center, we note the important pattern “drivers” aligning in such a manner that will likely lead to cold overwhelming our pattern as we move deeper into the month. The negative EPO, combined with the anticipated MJO movement through the traditionally cold phases ups the ante for a wintry stretch as the holidays kick into high gear. Add in a negative PNA (at least initially) and that should provide enough resistance from storms simply bypassing us to the south. Simply put, we believe the chances are high for 1 or 2 accumulating wintry events in the Dec. 5-15 time period. Thereafter, the thought here is that the cold grows stronger and likely deeper into the south.

It’s hard to argue with the overall look of the GEFS Extended below. If anything, I would anticipate the model (and others) correcting colder for mid and late December, especially with the idea of an expanding snow pack taking shape.

Nov. 23 – Nov. 30
Dec. 1 – Dec. 7
Dec. 7 – Dec. 14
Dec. 14 – Dec. 21
Dec. 21 – Dec. 28

Indianapolis averages 6.4″ of snow each December. We feel that the pattern supports above average snow this December to combine with the anticipated persistent below normal temperatures.

Not sure we can get to the level of December ’00 cold (a chief analog year), but it’s fun to see shades of the past providing hints to the future…

At the very least, fans of wintry weather around the holidays can’t ask for a better pattern setup than the stage that’s being set this year.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/after-novembers-cold-jab-is-the-stage-set-for-winter-to-set-in/

Nov 03

LR Update: Alignment For A Wintry Stretch Through The Holiday Season?

Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/