Updated 10.05.22 @ 6:19p
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Category: Winter thoughts…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/05/video-additional-winter-thoughts-on-this-gorgeous-october-evening/
Oct 03
Something’s Got To Give…
Updated 10.03.22 @ 5:32p
The NEW European Weeklies are in and continue to paint an intriguing picture as we look ahead to November. Remember, we’re of the belief that the pattern may, indeed, get off to a fast start to the winter season (for a change) this year.
At any rate, note the evolution at 500mb continues to up the ante that this idea may be right as we rumble into mid-November.
However, at the surface, the European doesn’t display the type of cooling one would imagine given the upper air pattern look.
My hunch is that we’ll see the trough “tuck in” further west to include a good portion of the central and east as we move forward and zone in on that mid-November time frame. That will likely force the surface temperature anomalies above to cool (significantly so if this idea is correct) for that time period.
It’ll be interesting to see what the update European seasonal product says in a couple of days. We’ll include that in Thursday’s long range update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/03/somethings-got-to-give/
Sep 20
Dinnertime Rambles: “Times, They Are A Changin…”
Updated 09.20.22 @ 6:33p Despite the fact that we’re looking at near-record heat tomorrow, when you get to late September, you know time is ticking on what can be an…
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Sep 14
Late Evening Winter Chatter…
Updated 09.14.22 @ 10:21p
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Sep 12
JMA Chimes In On Winter, Has Look Of A Fast Start…
Updated 09.12.22 @ 11:02p
The JMA long range (3 month) and seasonal (December through February) data is in and helps increase our confidence in the fast start to winter- for a change. The baseline of our call on a fast start is primarily due to analog research, along with keying in on global SST configurations.
Despite the latest European printing out a head fake from its August update, the JMA is going right to the 500mb look that could lead to all sorts of fun and games as the holidays near.
After a warm look to October (see no reason to disagree with that idea), note how the model begins to flip things around in November (2nd set of images) and December (3rd set of images).
I’ll spend more time tomorrow discussing the JMA updates in a video discussion. In short, another highly respected long range model is keying in on at least the kind of look that would lead to a vastly different close to fall and open to winter over the past couple of years…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/12/jma-chimes-in-on-winter-has-look-of-a-fast-start/
Sep 07
Re. Winter ’22-’23: Chatter Around Updated Modeling…
Updated 09.07.22 @ 7:22a
Now that we’re past Labor Day and the days are becoming noticeably shorter, there’s increased interest in what the upcoming winter may include. In case you missed it during the hustle and bustle of the summer, we’ve laid out some initial thoughts here:
Our complete and finalized annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook will be issued in October.
Now, onto the details from the updated European Seasonal (updates at the beginning of each month). Simply put, taken at face value, the “trend isn’t your friend” if you’re a fan of a quick start to winter. The model has really pulled back on the bullish look from its previous update regarding the December 500mb pattern. The model suggests another blow torch of a December is upon us. (Note last December, Indianapolis finished nearly a whopping 9° above average).
However, things do begin to change as we head into the new year. Note the reflection of a downstream (eastern trough) trying to be shown on the model. One could easily make an argument that if we do, indeed, go to this look at the upper levels, the surface temperatures would be significantly colder than what’s currently being modeled (meaning on or the other is likely to be wrong here: either the 500mb look or the model not being able to see cold).
By the time we get into the last month of met. winter (Feb), the model is keying in on a pull back of the said trough and resulting in a much warmer regime across the eastern portion of the country (relative to average, of course).
Despite some of the changes (most notably to December) from the previous model update, we don’t see any reason to throw the analog research from back in the summer in the trash just yet. Yes, that’s in the face of recent trends not being fond of the fast start to winter. The average December temperature in Indianapolis is 33.3°. We have to go back to December of ’17- weak La Nina in place (30.2°) and December of ’16 – a moderate El Nino (30.3°) to find our last “colder than average” Decembers.
Finally, it should be noted we don’t lean on one particular model when formulating our winter outlook. Like any longer range, seasonal forecast, we blend multiple models together, compile analog data, and do extensive research of sea surface temperature configurations across the globe before publishing our final product. Needless to say, we have a lot of work left to do for this year’s version.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/07/re-winter-22-22-chatter-around-updated-modeling/
Aug 11
VIDEO: Secondary Front Delivers Couple Quick Moving Storms This Afternoon; Winter ’22 – ’23- Looking Back At The Past To Gain Insight Into The Future…
Updated 08.11.22 @ 7:42a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/11/video-secondary-front-delivers-couple-quick-moving-storms-this-afternoon-winter-22-23-looking-back-at-the-past-to-gain-insight-into-the-future/
Aug 07
Sunday Morning Rambles: Tropics About To Wake Up? New Model Data In For Fall – Winter…
Updated 08.07.22 @ 8:44a
1.) In the short-term, a much cooler and less humid airmass awaits on deck this week. 2 frontal systems will pass through the state between Tuesday night and Thursday. We’ll notice an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon/ evening and repeating itself once again Monday afternoon/ and evening as the 1st front slowly sags south. Some gusty winds are possible with these lines of storms, as well as heavy rain. In fact, most areas in/ around Indianapolis and points north should cash in on 1″ to 2″ of rain (locally heavier totals) by Tuesday morning.
2.) The secondary cold front won’t have as much moisture to work with so coverage of showers and storms isn’t expected to be as widespread Thursday (“widely scattered” at best from this distance).
Thereafter, an even drier and cooler air mass is scheduled to arrive just in time for the weekend. Look for lower humidity levels, sunshine, and refreshing temperatures (even should dip into the 50s for overnight lows).
3.) After a quiet time in the tropics, there are signs we’re on the cusp of heading into busier days (should the MJO swing into Phase 2, then things could get very busy and in rather quick fashion). We note the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave that’s just now emerging off the African coast. There’s the potential the environment will become more conducive for gradual development of this feature over the next few days.
Also of interest is the precipitation pattern in the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple weeks. Additional trouble lurking here? It’s getting to be that time of year…
4.) Finally, new seasonal modeling is in for the upcoming fall and winter. The European seasonal model suggests that potentially our idea of a fast start to the upcoming winter (after a warmer than average fall overall) is on the right track.
Meteorological fall (Sept through Nov):
Note how the ridge builds in western Canada come December (reflection of a trough over the East). Candidly, for a model that struggles to ever really see cold, this is a bullish look. We’ll have to keep an eye on things as we get closer as I suspect cold to begin to show with more authority given the 500mb setup. Cold, wintry Christmas season in the works this year?
December:
The pattern is shown to remain favorable for additional colder than normal weather, locally, into the new year:
January:
Very interesting as this fits our early research (triple dip Nina). Also of interest is how things break down and are modeled to end on a warmer than normal note (would agree with this idea as well) as we finish off meteorological winter.
February:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/07/sunday-morning-rambles-tropics-about-to-wake-up-new-model-data-in-for-fall-winter/
Aug 04
VIDEO: Breath Of Fresh Air Arrives Next Week; Additional Early Chatter Around The Upcoming Fall And Winter Pattern…
Updated 08.04.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/04/video-breath-of-fresh-air-arrives-next-week-additional-early-chatter-around-the-upcoming-fall-and-winter-pattern/
Jul 13
VIDEO: Northwest Flow Aloft Keeps Us On Our Toes With Forecasting Rain/ Storms; Never Too Early To Look Ahead To Winter…
Updated 07.13.22 @ 5a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/13/video-northwest-flow-aloft-keeps-us-on-our-toes-with-forecasting-rain-storms-never-too-early-to-look-ahead-to-winter/