Updated 09.04.23 @ 8:58a
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Category: Winter thoughts…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/04/video-23-24-snow-nugget-rain-chances-return-tuesday-into-wednesday/
Sep 03
Initial Analog Set For Winter ’23 – ’24…
Updated 09.03.23 @ 9:22a
The extended stretch of quiet weather has given us time to finalize the initial set of analogs we’ll lean in on for the upcoming winter. Speaking of that, our annual Winter Outlook will be published Friday, October 27th.
While long range seasonal models differ on the placement of warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we’re refraining from going “all-in” on a modoki Nino event as of now. This is something that no doubt will have our attention as we go through the course of the next several weeks. It’ll be interesting to watch the trends. The modoki, or central based, warm event would go a long way in upping the ante for a colder, stormier winter, locally. This is something that’s possible but we still have more questions than answers with how this evolves.
SST configuration as of September 1, 2023:
Our initial set of analogs includes the following years:
- 1957-1958
- 1972-1973
- 1991-1992
- 2002-2003
- 2009-2010
- 1982-1983
- 2015-2016
We’re looking at 1st year Nino events of moderate to strong intensity. (Most modeling peaks this event in the +1.5 to +2 range in Nino region 3.4). In addition, we’re also looking at critical SST configuration in the NPAC and northwest Atlantic. Out of the list above, heaviest focus as of now centers on ’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16.
A blend of those years gives us the following temperature and precipitation pattern for meteorological winter:
Temperature
Precipitation
There’s a lot more that goes into our seasonal outlooks than simply taking a blend of analogs, but this will serve as a nice starting point from this distance. It’ll be very interesting to watch the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest SSTs currently “tucked in” to Nino regions 1+2 and 3 into potentially a more central, or region 3.4 event.
Make it a great Labor Day weekend and know we’ll have much more to come in the weeks ahead on our winter ’23 – ’24 thoughts…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/03/initial-analog-set-for-winter-23-24/
Jul 14
Different Flavors Of El Niños And Impacts On The Winter…
Updated 07.14.23 @ 10:34a
After a rare triple dip La Niña, significant changes have taken place in the equatorial Pacific this past spring and summer. The question isn’t “if” we’re dealing with an El Niño this fall and winter, but rather what type, or “flavor” of Nino we get to enjoy.
(A quick piece of advice for anyone viewing winter outlooks that are being published ridiculously early: be skeptical to any sources “broad-brushing” the outlook by labeling it simply as an “El Nino winter”).
Like we say with every seasonal outlook it seems, each Nina, Nino, or even neutral events have their own characteristics. No single event is identical. While we can gain valuable insights that can help build the foundation of what lies ahead through looking back at the past, undoubtedly, every year will have a few surprises. It’s our job to try and limit those surprises the best we can. 😉
A look at the current sea surface temperature (SST) configuration shows the warmest anomalies tucked in to Nino 3 and Nino 1+2.
Simply put, if this look continues this fall and into the early winter, it’s a warm to very warm signal for winter, locally.
The million dollar question is how the early stages of this Nino evolves in the coming weeks and next few months. There’s reason to believe there’s a chance this transitions into more of a central based, or “Modoki” El Niño event by winter. If that’s the case, we’ll have to up the ante for colder, more wintry conditions.
(You can read more about Modoki El Niño events here).
While still a bit early to put too much stock in any of the seasonal products for winter, it is interesting to see how the latest European seasonal model is trending as we move into the Nov through Jan timeframe below.
Stay tuned. We’ll really begin to firm up preliminary meteorological winter (Dec through Feb) thoughts over the course of the next couple months.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/14/different-flavors-of-el-ninos-and-impacts-on-the-winter/
Feb 27
Spring “Tease” Just That; Long, Long Road Ahead…
Updated 02.27.23 @ 6:15p
Temperatures are running around 7° above normal at IND February to-date, and the first few days of March will also get off to a well above normal start. Winter, as a whole, aside from the bitter pre-Christmas blast, has been absolutely forgettable to most winter weather enthusiasts. I suppose it only makes sense that just as most are ready for “stick and hold” spring weather to show itself, we are seeing the best alignment and most bullish signal for persistent anomalous cold from a variety of pattern drivers all winter long. 😉
Long time IndyWx viewers know that this is the time of year we lean heaviest of NAO impacts, particularly if in a negative state. Latest long range data places the NAO in a negative state for the better part of the upcoming (6) weeks:
This strongly argues for more of a persistent eastern trough, including below normal temperatures and an active storm track, thanks to the busy Pacific pattern.
Secondly, and we really should have started with this one, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is finally set to rotate into the traditionally cold phases (8 and then 1) as we flip the page to the 2nd week of March and beyond. This should eventually translate into a widespread cold pattern, including the East, with an active coast-to-coast storm track continuing. Also note the high latitude blocking emerging as we transition into Phase 1.
Throw in a negative WPO, and this further backs up the widespread cold, active pattern. Similar to the NAO chart to open this piece, the majority of the (6) week period is spent in a negative state. Pattern alignment…
Add in all of this and there’s no wonder the most updated (as of this afternoon) European Weeklies are banging the drum, quite loudly I might add, for a prolonged period of colder than normal weather from mid-March through mid-April. Don’t put away that cold weather gear- or snow shovels just yet…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/27/spring-tease-just-that-long-long-road-ahead/
Dec 09
LR Update: Pattern Discussion Through December And Into January…
Updated 12.09.22 @ 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/09/lr-update-pattern-discussion-through-december-and-into-january/
Dec 04
Sunday Afternoon Update On The Remainder Of December – 1st Half Of January…
Updated 12.04.22 @ 3:22p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/04/sunday-afternoon-update-on-the-remainder-of-december-1st-half-of-january/
Nov 26
After November’s Cold “Jab,” Is The Stage Set For Winter To Set In?
Updated 11.26.22 @ 6a
November opened well above normal on the temperature front. The first (11) days of the month featured above to well above average conditions, including multiple days with highs into the 70s. A dramatic change followed, thanks to a strong frontal passage on the 11th. The following (10) days were made up of well below normal temperatures, including a few days that didn’t feature highs getting out of the lower 30s. We’re now back to an overall milder than normal time to close out the month (IND officially is running right at “average” as of this post despite the wild swings).
Wild temperature swings are common in the fall and at times those can continue into December. With that said, despite a relatively mild first few days of the month, we continue to believe December ’22 will be made up of more sustained cold than the majority of the Decembers we’ve come to know over the past decade.
Our research from summer began to highlight reasoning for this idea and now that we’re front and center, we note the important pattern “drivers” aligning in such a manner that will likely lead to cold overwhelming our pattern as we move deeper into the month. The negative EPO, combined with the anticipated MJO movement through the traditionally cold phases ups the ante for a wintry stretch as the holidays kick into high gear. Add in a negative PNA (at least initially) and that should provide enough resistance from storms simply bypassing us to the south. Simply put, we believe the chances are high for 1 or 2 accumulating wintry events in the Dec. 5-15 time period. Thereafter, the thought here is that the cold grows stronger and likely deeper into the south.
It’s hard to argue with the overall look of the GEFS Extended below. If anything, I would anticipate the model (and others) correcting colder for mid and late December, especially with the idea of an expanding snow pack taking shape.
Indianapolis averages 6.4″ of snow each December. We feel that the pattern supports above average snow this December to combine with the anticipated persistent below normal temperatures.
Not sure we can get to the level of December ’00 cold (a chief analog year), but it’s fun to see shades of the past providing hints to the future…
At the very least, fans of wintry weather around the holidays can’t ask for a better pattern setup than the stage that’s being set this year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/26/after-novembers-cold-jab-is-the-stage-set-for-winter-to-set-in/
Nov 03
LR Update: Alignment For A Wintry Stretch Through The Holiday Season?
Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/03/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/
Oct 25
The Expected November Transition…
Updated 10.25.22 @ 5:08p
(A friendly reminder that our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Friday morning).
When we look at our top 2 analog years (’75-’76 and ’00-’01), we note a couple of common themes in November: cooler than normal anomalies were favored across the West while the East was favored warmer than normal. Note the temperature scale differences at the key on the bottom of both images.
Another common theme in these Novembers? Cold started bleeding east mid and late month, which eventually set up cold, wintry Decembers and a fast start to winter across the Mid West, Great Lakes, and East.
The new European Weeklies hold the ridge east through the 1st half of November. Given the EPO, PNA, and MJO (not to mention analogs above), there’s no reason to disagree with this. In fact, early November will likely still include some 70° days, if not flirt with 75°+.
Notice what transpires as we rumble into late November and early December: A totally different look at 500mb as a trough begins to form in the exact same place the persistent ridge will reside to open the month. Winter enthusiasts have to also love the look of high latitude blocking.
Wholesale pattern “transitions” can be finicking and will require close attention as we get to mid month and closer to Thanksgiving. From this distance, there’s no reason not to think our longstanding idea of a mid month colder shift has merit. Then, it’ll be time to understand how the vastly different sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) may impact the December and quick start to winter idea.
More on this and the winter as a whole Friday morning!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/25/the-expected-november-transition/
Oct 13
LR Update: Closing Out Fall And Looking Ahead To December…
Updated 10.13.22 @ 8:54p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/13/lr-update-closing-out-fall-and-looking-ahead-to-december/