Category: Winter thoughts…

Nov 13

No Secret Behind The Early Bitter Shots Of Air

As I write this, many Hoosiers are awaking to temperatures at downright bitter levels, despite the fact it’s only mid November.  The official low here at IndyWx.com HQ was a frosty 18 degrees and a far cry from the normal low of 37.

The early season bitter air mass has even settled in across portions of the Deep South and Coastal Plain.  Amazingly, snow was reported along the Carolina coastline last night (almost unheard of for mid November). Note the deep freeze penetrating far into the Deep South.  My home town of Auburn, AL dipped to a frigid 27 degrees this morning.  Again, very rare for so early in the season.

rtma_conus

It’s my job to look at what is behind these expansive early season bitter attacks of air (by the way, another bitterly cold air mass is ahead next week).  In my opinion, a lot of the early shots of impressive arctic air has to do with the widespread early snow and ice pack developing across the Northern Hemisphere.  We wrote about this first back on October 17th and the snow and ice pack has only been growing since.  The latest image shows a very impressive and vast snow and ice pack for so early in the season.  As early season cold moves south into the Lower 48, it doesn’t have much time to modify as it passes over the growing early season snow pack.

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As we look ahead, despite the weekend warm-up, another impressive shot of arctic air will plow into the Hoosier state early next week (perhaps even colder than this current air mass).  The European forecast model, once again, shows temperatures 12-18 degrees below normal by early next week.

ecmwf_t2min_a_f_east_31

Temperatures currently are running well below normal in similar areas modeling is sticking the “heart” of the cold next week.

t0

As we continue rumbling into the colder, snowier months ahead, one has to at least wonder what the overall impact of the early season expansive snow and ice cover during October and November will leave on the winter of 2013-2014…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/no-secret-behind-the-early-bitter-shots-of-air/

Nov 12

Pattern Showing Signs Of More Sustained Wintry Weather?

As we progress into the second half of November and December, friends and family begin to hit the road for holiday travel.  It’s also at this time where winter weather enthusiasts begin to wonder when that first “true winter storm” will arrive.  As we look towards this period, it becomes more important to note the state of the “big three” teleconnections.  These include the PNA (Pacific North America pattern), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and AO (Arctic Oscillation).  While it’s impossible to predict, with 100% certainty, the weather based solely off these teleconnections, they can be very good indicators of where the pattern may be heading in the next couple three weeks.

In a “perfect world” for those wanting cold and wintry weather here across the Hoosier state you want to see a positive PNA, which promotes western ridging and eastern troughiness (associated with cold weather).  Additionally, you want to see a negative AO and NAO (promotes high latitude blocking and corresponding cold, arctic, air is shunted south into the Lower 48).  What do the teleconnections currently show?

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Taken at face value, this suggests a cold and potentially wintry pattern may ensue to close out November and as we go into December.  We’re looking at an AO and NAO trending negative and a PNA trending positive.  *It should be noted that, at times, a negative NAO can be so strong that it supplies the cold air, but can also lead to a suppressed storm track- south of the available cold air…

Each storm provides it’s own set of challenges and must be dealt with as they come. We can look at past storms and patterns (called analog forecasting) to help get an “idea” as to what patterns and storms in front of us may produce, but no storm is identical to the other.  At this early stage in the game, it appears as if a pattern is setting up that could provide “wintry mischief” just at the time when most folks want it- for the Thanksgiving and Christmas season.

Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pattern-showing-signs-of-more-sustained-wintry-weather/

Nov 04

Thoughts On Winter…

This is the first time since 2002 that I haven’t produced a winter outlook.  Part of the reason behind this is due to the fact that our recent move back from Cleveland, OH to Indianapolis has taken priority.  Moving is always a much bigger chore than you expect originally.  That said, the upcoming winter of 2013-2014 presents quite the challenge when trying to determine what particular player takes control for the “long haul.”  I can’t remember a time when so many variables were at play, presenting quite the headache in trying to determine which one will take the lead.  Ultimately, confidence is lower than normal for the winter forecast.  That said, “confidence” in something 3-4 months out is never considered high. 🙂

Here are just a few items I’m looking at for the upcoming winter:

1. Data is pointing towards a southeast ridge in play for the better part of the upcoming winter.

The strength and precise position of the ridge will go a long way in aiding our weather here in central Indiana.  Southeast ridging isn’t always a bad thing in the winter if you’re a cold and snow fan as storms can’t “escape” harmlessly to our south or east.  That said, should we deal with a strong southeast ridge then we’re looking at a warmer, rainier time of things here as opposed to cold and snowy…

2. Modeling suggesting Nino Region 3.4 warms slightly as we progress through the winter months.

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The implications here are interesting when we drill down to the “home front.”  The following data from similar conditions during December-February in Nino Region 3.4 correlate to a few years that will go down in Hoosier snow lovers dreams…

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
  • 1977-1978: 49.7″ of snow, 2nd snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +0.8
  • 2002-2003: 46.9″ of snow, 4th snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +1.2
  • 2009-2010: 32.2″ of snow, 10th snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +1.6

3. NAO showing signs of going negative when it matters most?

Labeled as the new “NAO Model everyone is looking for” may, perhaps, be just that.  This formula has already proven to be incredibly accurate in the past.  This was developed by fellow midwestern, Al Marinaro (you can follow him on Twitter at @wxmidwest).  In the past I’ve been one to say it’s incredibly difficult to forecast the NAO beyond 2-3 weeks, but we look at water temperatures this time of year to try and get an idea of what may happen in the coming winter months ahead.  If Mr. Marinaro is on to something (and it appears that he is) that longstanding idea will all change.

Additionally, to the delight of many cold and snow lovers out there, Mr. Marinaro’s formula suggests we’re heading for a predominantly negative NAO this winter.

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4. The normally “highly variable” CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) monthly run has remained consistent as of late in thinking the east is warmer than normal for meteorological winter.  

It’s amazing how often this model is shown when forecasting cold, but seemingly forgotten when it’s forecasting warmer than normal conditions.

usT2mSeaInd2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thoughts-on-winter/