Dec 07
Updated 12.07.23 @ 7:53a Long winded discussion this morning diving into the long range pattern evolution through the holidays, including drivers behind the transition we believe is ahead. We also…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/07/video-a-lot-to-discuss-this-morning-between-the-short-term-and-long-range-pattern-evolution/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 8:32p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/long-range-update-interesting-times/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:30p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/evening-video-update-the-trend-is-your-friend-winter-fans/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/
Nov 13
Updated 11.13.23 @ 1:50p
Good afternoon, Clients! As additional seasonal guidance updates, we wanted to take a moment to review the latest trends with you as that data becomes available. Today, the latest JMA monthly product updated and “doubles down” on the idea of an overall mild, but active December morphing into a colder, stormy eastern US regime come January and February. Overall, the model is very consistent from October’s update.
December
Highlights
I. A milder than normal open to meteorological winter, but quite an active pattern on a widespread level- centered Central and Southern tier.
II. Lets keep an eye on the potential of a colder pattern to evolve the last 10 days, or so, of December.
January
Highlights
I. Ridge pulls back into the “sweet spot” and subsequent trough develops across the East. (Would watch for potential of cold to grow more widespread in the next update should this 500mb be accurate, and we think it is).
II. Active Nino southern stream delivers a hectic and busy pattern across the southern tier and up the eastern seaboard. Ripe pattern for eastern winter storm threat(s).
February
Highlights
I. Persistent pattern from January. If anything, ‘mean’ trough/ ridge positions only become that much more prominent. Cold becomes more widespread across the East, compared to January. Again, should the upper air pattern be correct, I’d lean that the model will have to grow colder in time for this period.
II. Very stormy southern and eastern seaboard. Likely multiple attempts at wintry “fun and games,” including deep into the south with this pattern.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/13/doubling-down-on-the-winter-idea/
Oct 30
Updated 10.30.23 @ 5:36p
I. Vigorous upper level energy will dive southeast and impact our Halloween weather. Many will see their 1st snowflakes of the season (at least those who didn’t today) tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. This is the type setup that will lead to localized heavier squalls within the broader area of snow showers and I imagine this will carry deep into Tuesday night- longer than what most high resolution guidance currently suggests.
II. Cold and wind will also make for bitter conditions by Halloween standards. Trock or treaters will certainly need the layers under those costumes tomorrow night as wind chills fall into the 10s at times. Gusts up to 30-40 MPH will also create for “spooky” conditions at times.
III. New long range, “seasonal” data continues to suggest we’re heading for a Modoki Nino event. If this does, indeed, verify then we’ll look for colder and potentially snowier trends to take hold (certainly compared to a “traditional” Nino event) towards late December and on into the middle of winter. To no surprise, this should also play into some other drivers that suggest we should see more in the way of high latitude blocking periods this winter, compared to the past few. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/30/pre-dinner-rambles-halloween-snow-and-new-winter-tidbit/
Oct 17
Updated 10.17.23 @ 5a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/17/video-new-seasonal-guidance-ups-the-ante-for-upcoming-winter-unsettled-close-to-the-work-week/
Oct 07
Updated 10.07.23 @ 6:09a
Though officially, we’re only a couple weeks into autumn, attention here has begun to shift towards the potential predominant pattern as we push into the holiday season.
A quick, simple look back over the most recent November and December patterns is a sight that generates anxiety for most winter lovers. At a time when the majority of even non-winter lovers would like snow (i.e. the holidays), well above normal temperatures, and almost record warmth has become all too common over the years.
November 2015-2022
December 2015-2022
Is there reason to believe that could be different this year, especially with our base transition to El Nino? Simply put, not so fast my friend. El Nino winters are notorious for getting off to slower, warm starts. Our research shows that many times November can start cold but that the December pattern flips warmer around these parts. That’s, obviously, not to say it “has” to be that way. Many other factors contribute to the overall regime, but just that when you simply bundle all 1st year Nino events together, it’s more typical than not to find things play out such as illustrated above.
Let’s take a more specific look at our analog package (’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16) and see what that suggests may be in store as we begin to set our eyes on the holidays.
November: Slightly above normal, locally. Unseasonably cold west and unseasonably warm New England are the headliners.
December: Greatest warm anomalies are centered over the Ohio Valley, in what otherwise is a large-scale warmer than normal regime from the Plains east.
January: The pattern begins to really flip around with cold bleeding southeast as the northern Plains and Northwest turn warmer than normal.
What does this all mean to me? While there’s only one that knows the future, if I was a betting man, I’d lean towards another holiday season that features above normal temperatures and most likely a greater than normal chance of below average December snowfall. I’d anticipate a few cold shots in November and the possibility of one or 2 accumulating snow events that gives way to the overall warmer idea in December. There’s always the chance the pattern begins to shift that last week of December for the colder January look… That’s the hope we’ll leave you with in this post in what otherwise will likely be a warmer than normal month as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/07/trend-hasnt-been-our-friend-as-of-late-around-the-holidays-reason-to-believe-this-year-is-different/
Sep 10
Updated 09.10.23 @ 10:46a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/10/video-tuesday-frontal-passage-reviewing-new-seasonal-data-for-winter/
Sep 07
Updated 09.07.23 @ 7:15a
September has opened significantly warmer than normal across the northern Plains and to a lesser extent into the southern Plains and along the northern tier. Indianapolis is running 5° above average through the 6th. We’ll chip away some at those toasty anomalies over the course of the next week, but still anticipate the month finishing slightly warmer than normal as a whole. We’re also running dry- more than half an inch below normal to open the month.
As we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the combination of the Madden Julian Oscillation sneaking into Phase 4, combined with a strongly positive PNA should help lead to more of a trough across the eastern portion of the country.
The NEW JMA Weeklies show that trough and associated cooler pattern (not cold by any means, but instead slightly below normal overall) taking up shop in the Week 1 and Week 2 time period below.
The latest ensemble guidance is also on board with the more seasonal look, especially compared to how the month opened.
Overall, the dry start to the month is anticipated to persist through the remainder of September as a whole.
Jumping ahead, the JMA seasonal data also updated today. In short, the model shows a warm fall giving way to a warm start to the winter before potentially taking a colder mid and late winter turn. Still far too early to put much stock in the specifics from this distance. The next couple of months will be very telling with the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest central PAC sea surface temperatures along with modeled trends deeper into the winter. Long ways to go; stay tuned…
JMA meteorological (Dec. through Feb.) winter idea:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/07/long-range-chatter-new-jma-data-on-winter/