Category Archives: Winter thoughts…

Long Range: Cold Pattern Isn’t Going Anywhere Fast…

We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.

Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:

EPO

AO

NAO

PNA


Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:

CFSv2 Weeklies

Weeks 1 & 2

Weeks 3 & 4

JMA Weekly

GEFS

While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.

Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.


Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:

Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.

Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…

No Comments AO, Arctic Cold, CFSv2, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, NAO, PNA, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook, Winter Storm, Winter thoughts...

Trying to Answer Questions When Winter Will Show Up…

Daily, we’re receiving questions around if and when winter will show up. While admittedly later than originally thought here, we’ve never been in the camp of “throwing the towel” in on winter. Our winter outlook that includes below normal cold and near average snowfall remains unchanged.

Before we get into some of our reasons why we think winter will show up (and likely make up for lost time), the upcoming week will remain much warmer than average.

We’re tracking (3) storm systems that will deal the region rain over the upcoming week:

  1. Southern IN this afternoon and evening
  2. All of the state Monday
  3. All of the state next Friday into Saturday

As a whole, rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive for most, with 7-day totals between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for central portions of the state. Heavier amounts can be expected across southern areas.

Now, let’s look ahead to some potentially colder times. Before moving forward, it’s important that we recognize models have attempted once already to drive in a wholesale pattern change to colder (originally thought to be underway now). Perhaps it’s a case of “delayed, but not denied.” There’s a lot going on behind the scenes:

  • Sudden stratospheric warming event and potential polar vortex displacement, etc.
  • SOI flipping from a Niña-like state to one we’d expect to see associated with an El Niño
  • Active MJO remains

There are significant changes brewing in the arctic/ higher latitudes that have to raise an eyebrow at the very least.

Today

Mid-January

Note the higher pressures building over the upcoming 10-14 days in the arctic regions.

Not surprisingly, the models begin to tank the AO.

The PNA rises…

Something that also lends credence to a potential pattern shift is the recent SOI drop.

This would tend to suggest that an active storm track may be in place as the more bonafide cold shift is underway.

The moral of the story? Despite the milder period being extended a couple weeks longer than originally thought, there’s still a lot on the table this winter. It’s far too early to think winter’s over before it’s really even begun for most. We expect to see increasingly wintry conditions show up around the middle of January…

Stay tuned.

No Comments AO, Arctic Cold, Client, El Niño, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, La Nina, PNA, Premium, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Outlook, Winter thoughts...

Winter 2018-2019 Notes…

As the calendar turns from July to August, we really begin to increase the amount of research into the upcoming winter season.  While still a couple months out from publishing our official Winter Outlook, we did want to touch base on a couple of items.

The early “baseline” of our ideas focuses on the likelihood of El Nino returning for the upcoming winter season.  As we’ve stated many times in the past, each Nino event is different from one another and other ingredients (highlighted above) can play a significant role in ultimately determining the eventual outcome.

  • Weak Modoki (central-based) Nino is expected this winter
  • SST configuration in the NPAC (north Pacific) is perhaps the most “intriguing” item at the moment
  • Low solar/ QBO

Somewhat of a surprise is that the majority of longer range, seasonal data is aligning for a cold, stormy eastern winter.  Included in the cold, stormy camp are the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS.  A few snap shots are included below…

JAMSTEC Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter (December through February).

JAMSTEC Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter.

CanSIPS 500mb for meteorological winter.

The CFSv2 is siding with a warmer winter, but it appears as if the model is struggling with the coming Nino and “over-hyping” things.  Accordingly, the model results in a blow torch winter.  Again, remember, we’re leaning towards a weak, central-based event.

That sea surface temperature configuration in the northern Pacific argues for western Canada ridging and downstream troughiness such as the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS would imply.

Just wanted to touch base briefly on our early thinking before we release our official 2018-2019 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook in October.

No Comments Canadian Model, CFSv2, European Model, JAMSTEC, snow, SST Discussion, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Outlook, Winter thoughts...