January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:
The snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:
Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana. Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).
A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week. The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.
The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).
While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2. See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:
The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option. Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.
Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February. The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:
It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch. Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods. Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:
