Category: Winter Storm

Jan 18

Frigid Day; Watching Accumulating Snow Threat Tomorrow Night…

Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 8.05.46 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid day
  • Accumulating snow Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Late week winter storm threat south
  • Active pattern continues next weekend

Bitterly Cold With Developing Snow Tuesday Night…It’s a bright, but frigid start to the day with mostly sunny skies in place.  Temperatures are below zero for many this morning and ‘chills have dipped to as low as 20 below.  If you have to be out today, layer up and limit time outdoors.

Clouds will quickly be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and snow will develop Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday morning.  Model data suggests snow may come down at a good clip at times early Wednesday morning. The initial snowfall map (below) places our best idea on accumulation for now.  As we always say, this should be used as guidance at this distance and we’ll have to fine tune as we move forward.

The consensus of nearly all model data shifts our late week winter storm further south overnight.  It’s too early to write this storm off, but we’ll trend our forecast drier in the Thursday-Friday time frame for now (that blocking high to our north can, at times, be a blessing and a curse ;-)).  Another chance of snow rumbles in late in the weekend.

InitialCall11912016event

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-day-watching-accumulating-snow-threat-tomorrow-night/

Jan 17

Tracking Two Winter Events This Week…

It’s a busy time in the good ole (cozy) forecast office these days as we track (2) notable winter events this week.

Time Line:

  • 1st event: Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • 2nd event: Thursday night-Friday

12z data is in and has been growing increasingly snowy for Tuesday night and Wednesday for a widespread portion of the area.  At this distance, a “plowable” snow appears likely and we’ll fine tune specific numbers as time draws closer.

12z GFS ensemble members show very good agreement on the snow event ahead Tuesday night-Wednesday. Source: Weatherbell.com

12z GFS ensemble members show very good agreement on the snow event ahead Tuesday night-Wednesday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Set-Up:

We expect upper level energy to dig southeast Tuesday morning and “slow” just enough to allow surface low pressure to develop Tuesday afternoon across southern MO.  The surface wave will lift east-northeast into the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday and should spread a widespread swath of snow across central IN.  In looking back at similar events in the past, we note that models usually continue to trend “snowier” with these type set-ups as time draws closer.  This will likely be a rather impactful event, likely greatly hampering the Wednesday morning commute.  Stay tuned.

Just as we begin to clean up from Wednesday’s snow storm, eyes will shift to what may lie ahead in the Thursday night-Friday time period.  The big question that remains with our second storm is the northward extent of the significant precipitation.

Individual ensemble members are much less in agreement when it comes to our late week winter storm threat. Source: Weatherbell.com

Individual ensemble members are much less in agreement when it comes to our late week winter storm threat. Source: Weatherbell.com

The European ensemble look at Day 5 has to make winter lovers smile from the Mid West into the East. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

The European ensemble look at Day 5 has to make winter lovers smile from the southern Plains into the East. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Set-up:

Surface low pressure will develop across OK Wednesday evening and track ENE Thursday into Friday.  The overall pattern supports a significant winter storm late week that will impact a widespread portion of the country.  Looking at the big picture overview suggests we should see a winter storm spread significant snow (and ice for some) out of the central Plains, into the Ohio Valley and on into the Mid Atl and Northeast region.  Of course we know no storm is alike, but leaning on past experience would suggest our second storm comes north a couple “clicks” in the days ahead.  That said, there’s no doubt the northward extent will be limited by the blocking high (a key component to supplying the cold weather “goods”) to the north.  Our advice at this point is to stay tuned closely to the Thursday night-Friday forecast and understand a significant winter storm is a good bet for at least portions of the region.  We’ll have to fine tune the specifics as we move forward.

At the end of the day, hopefully most are realizing this winter, though late, has a lot of “winter” in it.  We’re now dealing with our second surge of bitter arctic air in as many weeks and moving forward, the stormy pattern will continue to rumble through the upcoming 10-14 day period.  This will continue to make-up for the slow start to the snow season.

Looking ahead, given the weakening Nino and a number of other factors, there’s plenty reason to see busy wintry times continue as we rumble through the 2nd half of winter.

Giddy up!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-two-winter-events-this-week/

Jan 17

Active Wintry Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2016-01-17 at 10.00.00 AMHighlights: 

  • Frigid stretch of weather
  • Accumulating snow mid week
  • Winter storm potential late week

Busy Winter Pattern…Frigid air is helping usher in the new week and this morning’s snow bursts are setting the tone for potentially “more important” snow events in the days to come.

First things first though and that’s today.  Morning snow showers and heavier squalls will diminish and give way to an absolutely bitter feel for the afternoon.  Highs today took place at midnight and will continue to plummet through the day.  We’ll be in the single digits by dinner.  Wind chill values tonight and Monday will reach 20 degrees below zero.  Ouch!

All eyes will then shift to an approaching mid week snow maker and this should be a “plowable” event for most.  We expect a swath of snow to roll through central IN late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Just as soon as the mid week snow maker moves out, we’ll have to turn our attention to late week.  There are many questions regarding the northward extent of snow with this storm, but the overall set-up from this distance has to put a smile on the faces of Ohio Valley snow lovers.  The blocking high to the north will be sufficient to supply cold air at the surface as moisture is supplied from the Gulf of Mexico, but it will limit how far north the low will track.  Is this an Ohio Valley or TN Valley event?  Ensemble data at the moment leads us to believe this will track far enough north to impact our region.  We’ll have to sort through additional details in the coming days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-wintry-week-ahead/

Jan 16

Bitter Week Ahead; What About Snow Chances?

January to date is running 2 degrees above normal at IND.  That number will drop significantly this week with the punch of arctic air inbound.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

After a snowy week last week, we’ll attempt to make another run this week.  Despite model inconsistencies, we focus on Sunday morning, Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, and late week for accumulating snow prospects.  More on that in a minute.

Note the difference in snow cover, locally, when compared to this time last year.  Can we get things to look similar to image 2 below come late week?  We’re on the playing field, at the very least.

1

2The arctic surge of bitter air will blast into central IN Sunday morning late into the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the plunge, and reach the single digits come evening.  Wind chill values will go below zero Sunday afternoon.

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com.

A blast of snow showers and embedded squalls will accompany the arctic surge Sunday morning and may accumulate up to an inch in spots.  Strong and gusty winds will create brief whiteout conditions from time to time.

1We eye the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame for the next opportunity of accumulating snow.  A “plowable” snow may be in the works during this time frame and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning as depicted by the 12z GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Things remain very active moving forward.  While the model specifics differ significantly at this juncture (no surprise ;-)), it’s important to look at the overall picture and see the potential of a fairly widespread winter event late next week.f144ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-AYqVLj

Stay tuned.  There are significant differences between the potential of this event and the reality of the past several more significant precipitation makers.  – Namely a blocking cold high to the north as the more significant moisture arrives.  This will help supply the cold and limit the northward track to a point.  Is it a mostly snow event or do we get into the wintry mix potential?   Many questions will have to be answered in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-week-ahead-what-about-snow-chances/

Jan 12

Very Busy Winter Pattern…

First and foremost tonight, our thoughts and prayers are with the Smith family.  It’s comforting to know that Andrew is now in heaven and the pain and suffering is no…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/very-busy-winter-pattern/