Category: Winter Storm

Jan 08

Confidence Growing In Potential Major Winter Storm…

Confidence continues to grow in the prospects of a major winter storm impacting the Mid West and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.  A cold front will slip through central Indiana Thursday night, allowing colder air to push back into the state.  At the same time, surface low pressure should begin to organize along the tail end of the frontal boundary across the Ark-la-tex region.  As we progress through the day Friday, cold air will continue to penetrate south into the Ohio Valley while the surface low lifts northeast into the region.  While we can argue about the specific track (this is still a few days out, after all), the pattern supports a central Ohio Valley track as we progress through the day Friday into Saturday.

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Friday

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Saturday

EPS 500mb ensemble mean Sunday

We caution not to get too worked up over individual operational output (including those “spectacular” runs) as run-to-run variance is likely over the next few days.  That said, when we have support from overall pattern techniques that have supported a significant interior event for late this week since last week, along with ensemble agreement, it does lead to greater than normal confidence.  If you have travel plans late this week/ weekend, we suggest keeping a very close eye on the forecast.  This will be a high impact event for portions of the Ohio Valley.

While it’s impossible to say precisely where the heaviest swath of snow is laid down in this situation from a few days out, this is a storm that should carry a swath of 6″ to 12″+ snow just to the northwest of the track.  Additionally, an initial period of an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is also possible.  Finally, as the storm wraps up over the Ohio Valley Saturday, a strengthening wind will lead to potential severe blowing and drifting issues.  Fresh arctic air will flow into the region Saturday night into Sunday that will return sub-zero wind chills to the area.

Bottom line, stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/confidence-growing-in-potential-major-winter-storm/

Jan 08

Brief Thaw; Late Week Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Brief midweek thaw
  • Late week winter storm threat
  • Much colder air returns

Take It Slow This Morning…An overnight mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow has created a few slick spots, but widespread travel issues haven’t been reported this morning.  Thankfully, even a 1° to 2° difference (milder) in surface temperatures overnight helped us out in that regard.  The wintry mix is heading out and we should even see a little sunshine later today.

As temperatures settle back below freezing tonight, concern is present for the possibility of freezing fog and freezing drizzle in spots into Tuesday morning.  A warm front will then lift north through the state Wednesday helping our brief midweek “thaw” get underway in earnest.  Showers will accompany the milder conditions into Thursday.

A cold front will settle south through the state Thursday night and colder air will press southeast.  At the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the tail end of the front and lift northeast into the Ohio Valley Friday evening into early Saturday.  While this has the sure sign to be a significant, impactful winter storm, we’re obviously still a couple days away from being able to nail down precise track and strength.  Stay tuned and keep close tabs on that Friday-Saturday forecast.  We’ll turn much colder once again over the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ to 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/brief-thaw-late-week-winter-storm-brewing/

Jan 07

VIDEO: Icy, Snowy Night Ahead; Late Week Winter Storm?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-icy-snow-night-ahead-late-week-winter-storm/

Jan 07

Busy, Busy, Busy…

Highlights:

  • Messy wintry mix arrives tonight
  • Briefly milder midweek
  • Potential storm brewing Friday

Snow And Ice Arrive Tonight…Clouds will lower and thicken across the state as we progress through the day.  We’ll also note a stiff easterly breeze as an approaching storm system inches ever so much closer.  This storm system will spread a wintry mix through the state tonight into early Monday morning.  Initially, we think most of central Indiana will deal with snow before a transition to freezing rain during the overnight, continuing into Monday morning.  Before the transition, 1″ to 2″ of snow seems to be the best idea before an icy glaze develops atop the freshly fallen snow.  Based on the expected transition to freezing rain, there’s an opportunity for up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.  That said, we’ll have to keep a very close eye on temperature profiles this evening as even the difference of a couple of degrees aloft can make all the difference in a faster or slower transition to freezing rain.  Expect the Monday morning commute to be heavily impacted.

Colder air will push back in here Monday evening into Tuesday with considerable cloudiness remaining.  A milder southerly flow will overtake the region Wednesday into Thursday.  Low clouds and fog along with drizzle will develop Wednesday and we may have to deal with a touch of freezing drizzle early in the day before temperatures rise.  A spike in temperatures will take place Thursday, briefly sending central Indiana into the 50s before a cold front slides through the state Thursday evening.

An area of low pressure will develop along the southern end of the frontal boundary and lift northeast into the TN Valley and eastern Ohio Valley Friday.  As colder air presses into the region, precipitation will change from a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain to all snow through the day Friday.  It’s far too early to get specifics around accumulation ideas, but this storm has potential to be significant.  Much colder air will whip in here next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-busy-busy/

Dec 30

Additional Snow Overnight; Dangerous Cold Grips The Region…

Highlights:

  • Blowing and drifting issues
  • Snow returns late tonight
  • Prolonged stretch of severe cold

Bundle Up; Snow Returns Overnight…Yesterday’s snow event went as planned and many Hoosiers are waking up to several inches of powder this morning.  The winners yesterday stretched from Frankfort to Elwood to Winchester with a 6″ to 7″ band of snow.  All of that fresh snow will be blown and drifted about today with strong and gusty northwest winds.  If your travels take you into the open country, plan on significant blowing and drifting and leave extra time to reach your destination.

Additional upper level energy will scoot across the region late tonight into early Sunday and this will help kick up an area of light snow for central and southern portions of the state as we head into New Year’s Eve.  With the arctic air mass in place, don’t be surprised if we squeeze a quick inch out in spots.

Otherwise, the big story is the prolonged nature of this severe cold.  At times, wind chill values will drop to more than 30° below zero through early week.  Take the frigid conditions seriously.  Reinforcing arctic air will pour in here late next week and lead to scattered snow showers along with a bitter feel after slight midweek “moderation.”

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ to 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/additional-snow-overnight-dangerous-cold-grips-the-region/