Category Archives: Winter Storm

Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.

Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.

Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.

AG Report, Client, Drought, First Freeze, First frost, Harvest19, Severe Weather, Winter Storm

Morning Video Update: Stormy Saturday Gives Way To Very Strong Winds Sunday; Looking Ahead To March…

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1 Comment Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy, Winter Storm

All-Access Client Brief: Plowable Snow Moves In Overnight…

Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Heavy Snow & Sleet

When: 12a to 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet

The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).

Confidence: High

Blowing/ Drifting, Client, ClientBrief, Fog, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Rain, Sleet, Winter Storm

Whole Lot Of Weather Going On…

There’s sure no shortage of active weather, and unfortunately (or fortunately- depending on your perspective), there’s no letup in sight. As we look ahead, we see a fascinating battle of heavyweights set to duke it out for control of our mid and late February pattern. Before we get into some of the longer range model updates, let’s focus on the short and medium term challenges.

Heavy Rain

We continue to target (3) distinct windows where rainfall will be heaviest:

I. Late tonight-Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning

III. Thursday evening

In general, widespread 2″ to 2.5″ totals are expected in area rain gauges with heavier amounts across south-central Indiana (where flood risks are highest).

The other item to note? The potential of strong and gusty thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening. These would be located directly ahead of the cold front. While we’re not anticipating a widespread major event, temperatures and dew points will approach 60 deg. and the atmosphere will be favorable to support a few strong gusts that may mix down to the surface.

Sharply Colder

The cold front that will deliver the heavy rainfall for our midweek will sweep through central Indiana around 4p-5p. Behind the boundary, sharply colder air will blow in on strong and gusty northwest winds Thursday night. Daytime highs (actual highs will occur at midnight Friday) will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the 0s most of the day.

Winter Threat Late Weekend-Early Next Week?

The fresh batch of cold air in here to wrap up the work week will lay the ground work for potential wintry mischief late weekend into early next week. While the cold still isn’t set to truly establish itself (still think we’re a week-10 days away from that), just enough cold may be around to present the opportunity for an accumulating central and northern Ohio Valley winter threat in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

The hesitation that we still have from beginning to “ring the bells” a little louder in the aforementioned period is the position of the high in front of the storm and forecast strongly positive AO. Both of these argue against the idea of this being a widespread wintry event for the southern, and potentially as far north as central Ohio Valley. The early idea here as of now is that we’ll be looking at a wintry mix event to rain for central and southern areas with more of an opportunity for substantial snow across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Again, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things.

Longer term, today’s MJO update continues to take things into Phase 8 and you don’t need us to cover the end result again (think cold) at this point. Should we get the other teleconnections to line-up (AO, PNA, NAO) then a 2-3 week period of significant winter weather would ensue during the 2/20-3/10 timeframe…

AO, Arctic Cold, ClientBrief, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Highlights, Winter Storm

Snowy Thursday Night-Early Friday Morning On Tap…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

Forecaster: McMillan


What: Accumulating snow

When: This evening into the predawn hours Friday

Temperatures: 15 to 18 F

Wind: ESE 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ drifting: Minimal

Attention will shift from the dangerous cold to an accumulating snow event across central and north-central Indiana this evening into the predawn hours Friday. We expect snow to begin reaching the surface (may take a little longer than models suggest due to the dry air in place initially) in western portions of the viewing area between 6p-7p and into central Indiana between 8p and 9p. Heaviest snow still looks to fall during the hours of 10p and 3a. Banding may result in periods of moderate to heavy snow during this time frame. Light snow will be ongoing across southeast Indiana around 7a Friday before departing the state shortly thereafter.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 6:30p Thursday

Arctic Cold, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter Storm