Mar 09
Good Sunday afternoon! We’re enjoying beautiful weather and conditions will only improve Monday into Tuesday. That said, a potential winter storm looms Wednesday. Additionally, we’re keeping a close eye on…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/09/sunday-afternoon-update-awesome-stretch-of-weather-before-dramatic-changes/
Mar 06
Quick video update tonight to cover a couple of things: Southeast rain and western NC winter event. Beauty of a close to the work week here! More “rumblings” of a…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/06/thursday-evening-video-update/
Mar 05
We continue to closely monitor the goings on towards the middle of the month- more specifically March 12th through the 14th. There are indications a significant late season winter storm is brewing and the overall pattern is one that is aligning itself in a way that certainly has to raise an eye brow. That said, it’s far too early for precise details. Is a major storm possible? Absolutely. Is it okay to pin down a given area for heavy snow totals at this stage? Absolutely not.
First, let’s take a look at the latest ensemble charts.
GFS
European
Canadian
At this stage in the game (more than a week away from the expected event), we suggest investing much more in the ensembles as opposed to a single operational model run. (Case in point just from today alone…the 0z run of the European suggested the interior northeast was ground zero for widespread 12″ type snowfall totals with little to nothing expected across central Indiana. Flip ahead 12 hours later and the 12z European takes the heavy snow axis through the heart of central Indiana on into the Northeast region).
Wikipedia has a nice write up on ensemble forecasting:
Ensemble forecasting is a numerical prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis: multiple numerical predictions are conducted using slightly different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations, or measurements. Sometimes the ensemble of forecasts may use different forecast models for different members, or different formulations of a forecast model. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by thechaotic nature of the evolution equations of the dynamical system, which is often referred to as sensitive dependence on the initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical methods to solve the equations. Ideally, the verified future dynamical system state should fall within the predicted ensemble spread, and the amount of spread should be related to the uncertainty (error) of the forecast.
Though this is an event set to take shape close to a week from now, confidence on a significant storm across the east is higher than normal due to:
1.) Excellent agreement amongst the three primary mid range ensemble charts.
2.) The significance of the trough depicted on each set of ensembles.
While there are some differences, it’s highly unusual to see such relative agreement at this stage in the game. We continue to bracket March 12th through the 14th time period for potential impacts from this storm across central Indiana. Many questions will remain unanswered for now concerning precipitation type or amount, but we’re leaning more towards a winter weather maker at this early juncture for the Ohio Valley region. We stress this can, and likely will, change multiple times in the days ahead.
Regardless, we strongly agree with the week 2 temperature anomalies courtesy of the GFS. Should this come to fruition then March 12th through the 18th would feel more like early February then early to mid March. Again, we think the GFS is on to something with the return of the cold pattern.
As we move ahead know that we’ll be here keeping a close eye on the goings on behind the scenes around the potential “trouble” brewing for mid month. As we continue to dig into the details with this potential storm, you worry about finding ways to enjoy the spring like feel Friday and again Monday :-). We forecast both days to certainly have many craving spring as temperatures zoom well into the 50s both days. Get out there and enjoy it!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/05/trouble-brewing-mid-month/
Mar 04
We wanted to take the time to quickly update you on a couple of very minor events in here tomorrow evening and again Saturday. Additionally, we’re monitoring the prospects of…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/04/video-update-on-the-mid-month-storm-brewing/
Mar 02
Without question, snowfall numbers didn’t reach our initial forecast of 6-8″ made Thursday. We revised our projected accumulation numbers last night to the 2-5″ range and that did just fine.…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/02/a-note-on-today-and-a-look-ahead-to-tomorrow/
Mar 02
|
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16/ 23 |
9/ 19 |
4/ 28 |
10/ 30 |
18/ 38 |
27/ 50 |
22/ 37 |
|
Moderate |
– – – |
– – – |
– – – |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Forecast Updated: 03.02.14 @ 12:25a
Sunday Winter Storm…The well advertised winter storm is here and will make a mess of travel and plans for the second half of your weekend. Moisture is streaming northeast over a bitterly cold air mass locked in place at the surface and this will create a mixture of sleet and freezing rain to quickly change to a mixture of sleet and snow during the early morning hours across central Indiana.
We forecast precipitation intensity to really begin to increase across the greater central Indiana region around 3-4 am. Waves of accumulating snow will continue through the day, though it won’t snow all day. In particular, we bracket 4am to 10am and then again early Sunday afternoon.
Finally, a wave of low pressure will eject into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into Monday, continuing the significant snow and icing down state. We anticipate the majority, if not all, of “round two” to bypass most of central Indiana to the south Sunday evening into early Monday. So, what’s the culprit behind the suppression? As mentioned in previous posts, a powerful arctic high will build south Sunday into Sunday night and this is the primary driver for the shift south in the surface low track.
All of that said, we’re still looking at significant accumulations of sleet and snow across central Indiana today, though reduced from the 6-8″ forecast we’ve had out since Thursday morning. We now forecast 2-5″ of snow and sleet across central Indiana. Needless to say, we’ll continue to monitor. Sunday night will turn downright frigid across the region as temperatures crash into the upper single digits.
As a quick side note, we once again have to tip our cap to the Canadian forecast model. It began to catch onto the southward shift with “phase 2” of the storm well in advance of the other model data (during the mid week period), including the highly touted European forecast model.
Frigid Start To The Work Week With Slow Mid Week Moderation…Fresh arctic air will be locked in place across the area to begin the new work week. While it’ll be dry, temperatures will run as much as 30 degrees below seasonal norms. The cold winter of 2013-2014 just doesn’t want to let up.
As we push into the mid week stretch we’ll note a powerful Gulf low that’s expected to push up the eastern seaboard. Early indications here keep us dry with slowly moderating temperatures. Though we’ll remain well below normal, it’ll be a step in the right direction, so to speak, from the frigid early week start.
Weak Late Week System…The early take on late next week shows a cold front moving through Friday afternoon and evening. This may create a few rain showers Friday evening followed by light snow Friday night into Saturday morning as a fresh push of cold air blows into the state. We have time to watch this and update as needed.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
We’ll have fresh thoughts posted here and on our social media accounts through the day. Have a nice Sunday and God Bless! You can follow us on Twitter @indywx and become a friend of ours on Facebook by searching IndyWx.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/02/accumulating-ice-and-snow-then-frigid/
Feb 28
It’s been a long day, but we’d like nothing more than to be right here in the good ole forecast office, digging into data for our next winter storm with you. While “part 2” of the storm remains just offshore as of this post, it’ll likely be trudging onshore by the time you read this early Saturday morning. That said, the initial wave of accumulating snow (and for some, ice) will arrive as early as late Saturday night/ wee morning hours (well before sunrise) Sunday in the form of an overrunning event- where comparably warmer, more moist air is lifted up and overruns the cold air at the surface.
Early ideas suggest we undergo a period of moderate to heavy wintry precipitation as early as 3-ish Sunday morning, extending into the late morning hours. Particularly, we bracket the hours of 3am to 10am Sunday for the initial wave of wintry weather. This will be a mixed bag of precipitation, including snow, sleet, and freezing rain across central Indiana. An early look at the high resolution simulated radar courtesy of the NAM shows this well- valid 7am Sunday morning. Image is courtesy of the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics.
After a “lull” in the accumulating wintry precipitation from late morning/ early afternoon Sunday, we’ll likely deal with another round of moderate to heavy accumulating wintry precipitation Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. It’s important to note this is where we have more questions than answers in regards to the interaction of a juiced up southern stream of the jet- infused by the powerhouse late season winter storm (still spinning just off shore as of this update). Powerful arctic high pressure will be sinking south and could result in a more suppressed track of the low. Should this be the correct scenario snow totals would likely be towards the lower end of the ongoing 6-8″ forecast we hoisted back on Thursday morning. That said, one can’t ignore the pattern as it’s one notorious for heavy snow producers across central Indiana. A scan over heavy snow events of the past here across central Indiana show similar setups that have yielded impressive snow totals. Just as the potential of suppression has to be noted, so should the potential of a slightly more north trend that models may currently see as time gets closer.
In closing tonight, 12z model data should really begin to hone in on the area most likely to see heaviest snow and/ or ice accumulations. Our ongoing forecast of storm totals remains unchanged for now of 6-8″. Stay tuned, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/28/some-late-night-thoughts/
Feb 28
As we’ve been discussing, a significant winter storm is developing this weekend. The set up is one that will feature an arctic cold front sinking south and stalling out across southern and central Indiana Saturday night. Low pressure will then organize over the Ark-la-tex region and head northeast, tracking into the northern Tennessee Valley Sunday and Sunday night. The low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coastline Monday evening. This will be more of a prolonged event when compared to our last two winter storms as waves of moderate to heavy snow move into central Indiana beginning late Saturday night.
This is an ominous set up for more heavy snow across central Indiana- one that’s notorious for heavy snow events across central Indiana. We hoisted our initial snowfall forecast Thursday morning and placed central Indiana under the threat for 6-8″. As of this morning, we’re remaining firm on that idea. It should be noted that the GFS remains very bullish on heavier totals (and consistent, as well), but it should also be pointed out it’s somewhat of an outlier as of this morning as the GEM and ECMWF are more suppressed with lighter totals. All of that said, we lean more towards the GFS solution versus the more suppressed Canadian and, to some extent, European forecast model. Should the other model data begin to trend towards the snowfall idea per the GFS then the initial 6-8″ forecast will have to be adjusted upward. The storm is just now coming onshore and will be sampled better with model runs later today.
Any way you slice it, a significant and disruptive winter storm is brewing this weekend and could make an absolute mess of your Sunday and Monday. A shot of bitterly cold air will flow in behind our departing storm early next week.
Our current accumulation idea and storm track can be found below: We’ll have another update here late tonight and you can keep up-to-date with all of our thoughts on the go on Twitter (@indywx).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/28/more-on-this-weekends-winter-storm/
Feb 28
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 405 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 ...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA... .A WINTER STORM IS PROGGED TO MOVE…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/28/winter-storm-watch-hoisted/
Feb 27
|
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6/ 14 |
10/ 35 |
28/ 39 |
19/ 30 |
10/ 19 |
– 5/ 19 |
0/ 20 |
|
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Heavy |
Light |
– – – |
– – – |
Forecast Updated 02.27.14 @ 7:30a
Fresh Arctic Air…A fresh arctic air mass is blowing into the state this morning on gusty northerly winds. Top wind gusts here at IndyWx.com HQ, in southern Boone County, have been clocked at 41 MPH so far this morning. Despite a lot of sun today, don’t look for the thermometer to move much. In fact, we forecast most communities to remain below the middle teens- a far cry from the average high of the middle 40s.
Watching A Light Snow Maker…Most of Friday will feature sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon and some light snow will follow late Friday night into Saturday morning. This won’t be a big deal and really looks unimpressive- less than an inch for most neighborhoods.
Big Winter Storm Brewing…We continue to gain confidence in a winter storm that will impact central Indiana Saturday night through Monday morning. The set up is one that will feature an arctic front stalling out across the state Saturday night into early Sunday with moisture overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in periods of significant precipitation- mostly in the form of snow. Finally, a wave of low pressure will move out of the Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into early Monday.
Our initial snowfall idea places a band of heavy snow through the majority of central Indiana, including Indianapolis, to the tune of 6-8 inches.
Bitter Air Flows In Behind The Winter Storm…A bitterly cold air mass will plunge into the area behind our winter storm. With a fresh, deep snow pack in place and clearing skies, it’s possible that we could be looking at below zero temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Forget that the calendar will say early March by this point…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/27/1186/
