Quick video update on our thinking tonight, as well as a look at the weekend…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Winter Storm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/28/wednesday-evening-thoughts-2/
Jan 28
Now This Is More Like It…
Making Up For Lost Time…Many snow lovers out there have been disappointed by the lack of the white stuff winter to date. The cool thing is that the next 7-10 days (most likely longer) will offer up multiple opportunities to serve up accumulating snow.
First things first and that’s today- look for bright sunshine and a frosty start. Temperatures will “warm” to just under seasonal levels this afternoon. A fast moving storm system will scoot through here late tonight and Thursday morning with light rain, possibly transitioning to light snow showers before precipitation ends Tuesday (not a big deal). Far eastern areas may experience a brief period of light freezing rain or light sleet during the onset of precipitation, but things should switch over to light rain rather rapidly even for you. We’ll turn dry and cold to wrap up the work week.
All eyes are on the weekend as a storm system moves towards the region. We have a ways to go and we’ll have to fine tune the details over the next few days, but this has potential to be the most widespread significant wintry event of the season. Stay tuned. MUCH colder air will punch in here early next week and may set the stage for more wintry “mischief” by the middle of next week.
IU at Purdue: 9p tonight
Good news is that for those driving to West Lafayette tonight, you should be dealing with dry conditions. Precipitation chances will begin to go up as we near 11p, or after, for western portions of the state.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 6″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/28/now-this-is-more-like-it-2/
Jan 27
Weekend Thoughts…
The video goes into the detail around our weekend thoughts. Is a winter storm brewing?
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/27/weekend-thoughts/
Jan 27
Keeping An Eye On The Weekend…
Forecast models have been printing out wintry solutions for the upcoming weekend- particularly Saturday night through Super Bowl Sunday.
The GFS 500mb charts between 12z Monday and this morning show the key with this potential storm. Note the difference between yesterday (top) and today (bottom). The GFS model brings more energy out and the result is a stronger storm system.
Timing between cold and moisture associated with storm systems has been the important missing link this winter with bigger storms. Does that trend continue this weekend? Snow lovers hope not…
A key ingredient that has been missing in the past is a big area of high pressure north of the region supplying cold air as surface low pressure tracks in a favorable position for wintry precipitation. Models do suggest not only renewed arctic high pressure building down the Plains region Sunday into Monday, but also a 1040mb high over the northern Lakes region. This would help go a long way in keeping cold air flowing into the region.
What about the sensible weather here?! Keeping in mind that this is still an event 5 days out….. The GFS model suggests mostly a snow event north-central, but also brings in a wintry mix of icy precipitation and rain across the southern half of the state. The Canadian forecast model (not shown here) is more suppressed and leads to an accumulating weekend snow event across the region and targets southern portions of the state for heaviest snowfall. The European model is the most “ideal” scenario for central Indiana snow lovers and leads to a significant snow event across the heart of the state.
Note the European forecast model track a wave of low pressure in an ideal location for heavy snow across central Indiana before intensifying and hammering the Northeast region.
We’ll continue to keep a close eye on this developing situation. Stay tuned….
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/27/keeping-an-eye-on-the-weekend/
Jan 24
So Long Boring Weather…
Busy Times In The Forecast Office…Let’s get to the easy part of this forecast package and that’s today. Look for lots of sunshine along with seasonably mild temperatures after a cold and frosty start.
Things get fun tomorrow as a clipper low dives southeast and tracks in a favorable position for accumulating snow- especially from the city and points north (snowfall forecast below). A mixture of rain and snow will overspread central Indiana Sunday morning and transition to all snow through the late morning into the early afternoon. This will be a heavy, wet snow (perfect for snowball fights or making a snowman). The other aspect to this storm system will be an increasing east and northeast wind Sunday evening into Monday morning. Snow will diminish Sunday night, but the “damage” will likely be done by that point, leaving a mark on your Monday morning commute.
Another (weaker) weather maker may deliver scattered snow showers Tuesday.
Briefly milder air will move in here Thursday with a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet (depending on where you’re viewing us through the state), but the bigger story will be MUCH colder air set to pour into the region to close January and open February. Some forecast models suggest a winter storm will precede the bitterly cold air around Super Bowl Sunday…. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 5″
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/24/so-long-boring-weather/
Jan 15
Quiet Weather For Now….
Moderation Continues; Windy Saturday…A weak frontal boundary will slip through the state this afternoon/ evening and could offer up a snow flurry. Otherwise it’s a rather uneventful forecast until Saturday when we introduce a gusty southwesterly wind (up to 30 MPH). The bright side of that southwesterly breeze will be that temperatures will reach the middle 40s.
The milder air will be very brief as a cold front moves through Saturday night and provides snow shower potential as early as Sunday morning. We should remain dry for the better part of the first half of next week, but we’ll be keeping a close watch for a potential winter storm brewing the middle to latter portions of next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Trace
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 1″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/15/quiet-weather-for-now/
Jan 12
Looking Ahead…
January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:
The snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:
Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana. Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).
A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week. The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.
The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).
While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2. See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:
The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option. Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.
Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February. The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:
It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch. Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods. Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/looking-ahead/
Jan 12
Turning Colder; Icy Mix To Light Snow Before Ending…
Greatest ice accumulations set up from Indianapolis and points north last night and this morning. Glaze reached just under one quarter inch here across southern Boone County.
The icy mixture will transition to light snow before ending mid morning.
Temperatures will also be sliding backwards through the day. Morning highs in the lower 30s will fall into the 20s this afternoon.
The big push of arctic air arrives tonight into Tuesday and sets the stage for widespread sub-zero lows Wednesday morning. Wind chills will, of course, be even colder (10 to 20 below zero).
We’ll be back later tonight to talk about what lies ahead in the longer term. Stay safe out there!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/turning-colder-icy-mix-to-light-snow-before-ending/
Jan 11
Ice Storm Warning…
Freezing rain (initially may be mixed with sleet) overspreads central Indiana between 1p-3p. We advise to get any and all travel done prior to 1p and plan to stay in…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/11/ice-storm-warning/
Jan 10
Ice Storm For Some Sunday Evening; Late Night Thoughts…
Just a quick update to give you some fresh thoughts on the next winter storm that will impact central Indiana.
We bracket the hours of 1p-3p for the onset of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana.
Coverage and intensity of freezing rain will increase as we progress through the evening hours. We suggest hunkering down at home (or at a loved ones home) for the Colts game, as roadways will likely become hazardous during the game.
Early data hot off the press this evening is suggesting Ice Storm Warning criteria (freezing rain amounts of 0.25″, or greater) is met through the heart of central Indiana.
A fresh push of cold, arctic, air will ooze back into central Indiana during the day Monday. We think overnight lows head back into the single digits Tuesday morning and below zero Wednesday morning. Needless to say, should power outages take place, a nasty situation will develop with the new push of cold air.
Please stay tuned to your favorite media or means of obtaining weather information, as this will be an impactful event for central Indiana tomorrow afternoon into Monday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/10/ice-storm-for-some-sunday-evening-late-night-thoughts/