Category Archives: Winter Storm

Potential Is Mighty, But Can It Turn To Reality?

Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p

We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.

It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?

While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.

Details to follow in the week ahead!

Arctic Cold, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Greenland Block, High-latitude Blocking, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Winter Storm

The Pending Halloween Pattern Transition And Initial Taste Of Winter…

Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a

The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.

A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.

Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.

We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.

Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…

AG Report, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, First Freeze, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Halloween, Harvest23, Lake Effect Snow, Long Range Discussion, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Storm

VIDEO: Multi-Faceted Significant Storm To Close The Work Week; Colder Shift Takes Place Next Week And Sets The Stage For More “Fun And Games…”

Updated 03.03.23 @ 7:40a

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Client, Ensemble Discussion, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos, Windy, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix

Classic “Leader-Follower” Setup Next Week…

Updated 02.04.23 @ 8a

All is quiet now, but that will change next week as an active weather pattern returns. A weak frontal boundary will scoot through the Ohio Valley Tuesday with a few showers before a bigger deal unfolds mid and late week. It’s a classic “leader-follower” type setup.

The lead storm system will lift northwest of the region Wednesday, bringing a slug of moisture northward into the region. Moderate to heavy rain is a good bet at times in an unseasonably mild pattern. Highs will zoom into the 50s to near 60° and we’re even talking about some embedded thunder to boot. A solid 1” to 2” of rain seems like a good call with this system, most of which will fall Wednesday.

As this storm exists, it’ll drag a cold front and more seasonally cool air back into the region for late week. That’s when additional energy will track east out of the Plains and towards the East Coast.

While confidence is high on this setup, exactly where the energy phases with the late week system will determine whether we’re talking about an Ohio Valley winter storm threat or more of an East Coast threat. Stay tuned. At the very least, despite the mild pattern, next week sure won’t be boring…

Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Storm