Category: Winter Storm

VIDEO: Use The Weekend To Prepare…

Updated 02.12.21 @ 5:50p

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02.12.21 Weather Bulletin: Continuing To Keep Close Eyes On Next Week…

Updated: 02.12.21 @ 7:34a

Use This Weekend To Prep…The short-term portion of this forecast is relatively quiet. Take advantage and prepare for significant winter weather next week. We may even see a few breaks in the cloud cover today. All in all, look for mostly cloudy and continued cold conditions. Keep in mind, average highs this time of year should be close to 40°. We’ll be nowhere near that anytime soon. In fact, most days will feature high temperatures even colder than average lows for this time of year!

Reinforcing arctic air will penetrate the area Saturday and will likely kick up some light snow showers- especially during the afternoon. Light snow will remain a possibility Valentine’s Day, but “light” is the key word.

The more exciting part of this forecast comes at us as we open the work week. Surface low pressure will develop in the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and track northeast up along the Appalachians. This will spread a swath of snow into the Ohio Valley through the day Monday. It appears as if snow will become heavy at times Monday evening into the predawn hours Tuesday before tapering to light snow/ snow showers late Tuesday morning. This will be a much more powdery snow than we typically see with these Gulf storms, due to having truly arctic air involved with the storm. Gusty winds will create significant blowing and drifting issues throughout the early and middle portion of the work week.

That then leads us to the threat of another significant winter storm as we push into Wednesday night into Friday morning. We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but the threat is very real that this storm also deals out heavy impacts across the region with additional heavy snow possible during the aforementioned time frame.

We’d suggest using the weekend to prepare for the potential of two back-to-back “big deal” winter storms. We’ll be here through the weekend with additional updates.

Averages: H: 39/ L: 23° on the 12th –> H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 18th

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VIDEO: Long Range Update And Fresh Thoughts On Next Week…

Updated 02.11.21 @ 10:48p I apologize for the abrupt stop in tonight’s video. After rambling on for close to 20 min., YouTube informed me that I had to trim under…

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VIDEO: Long Hours In The Forecast Office Ahead…

Updated 02.11.21 @ 7:55a

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Reasons For (And Against) The “Big One” Next Week…

Updated 02.10.21 @ 6:23p

Before we look ahead, snow continues to fall across most of central Indiana. So far, immediate downtown Indy has avoided significant snow, but other areas are approaching 1″ to 2″ already as of this post. We continue to believe another band of snow will organize during the overnight into the predawn hours across central Indiana (especially along and north of the I-70 corridor). Given how cold it’s been as of late, even the lightest snow is creating havoc on area roadways. As winds become gusty, blowing and drifting issues will remain into the day Thursday.

As we look ahead, this pattern remains nothing short of remarkable. Feb. 5th (last Friday at 6p) was the last time Indianapolis was above the freezing mark. As we look ahead, we’re likely talking about another 12 days below freezing (if not longer). The “moderation” that some models are hinting at after that time frame isn’t something I’d label as high confidence at this point. That’s rare territory for central Indiana- even during some of the infamous cold winters of the “good ole days.” There’s also already been a fair share of snow events in this pattern. Sure the big one hasn’t hit (yet), but many across the state are getting used to clearing snow off the sidewalk and driveway on a daily basis. Not counting today’s snow, Indianapolis, officially, sits at 2.3″ month-to-date. Areas downstate received as much as half a foot (or more) earlier this week. As we look ahead, there’s a lot more white gold where that came from. (Keep in mind, the “average” snow total during the month of February in Indianapolis is 6.5″).

A fresh intrusion of arctic air will arrive just in time for the weekend. We’re looking at a mostly dry stretch of weather through the weekend, with the exception of some light snow prospects Saturday. Again, given how cold it’s been, even these light snow events will likely create travel trouble.

The coldest morning appears to be Sunday with lows falling to between 3° and 6° below zero. Wind chill values will approach 20° below zero, or worse, in spots.

By this time, all eyes will be on the developing storm system in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. There’s already been a great deal of chatter about this storm and that will only continue to ramp up as we move forward. Given the overall pattern and model consensus at this juncture, there’s plenty reason to believe the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana, is in store for a significant winter storm early next week.

With that said, nothing is a lock in this business. While the negative PNA (image 1 below) argues for the southeast ridge to “flex” it’s muscle and lead to a more inland track, the fact arctic air will be pressing southeast (image 2 below) does at least raise an eyebrow for potential shifts southeast in time over the next couple of days. It’s another fascinating meteorological battle we’ll have the pleasure to watch unfold in real time.

As it sits right now, we favor a storm track that will be far enough west to put central Indiana in play for potentially significant wintry precipitation (far too early to throw numbers out). The early call is for surface low to move out of the northwest Gulf and track west of the mountains before a secondary low take over along the Mid-Atlantic and moves northeast off the New England coast.

If this wasn’t enough, another storm system likely follows later next week that could also produce additional wintry “goods.”

Will every storm produce in your backyard? Negative. That said, when we get to March 1st, central Indiana winter weather fans are likely to look back on February 2021 as a truly special ride.

I suppose time will tell…

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