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Category: Winter Outlook
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-video-update/
Sep 16
Updated JAMSTEC…
6:51a, 9.16.15 I tried my best to stay up late enough last night to post this update, but decided to finally turn in after nearly two collisions with me falling…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/updated-jamstec/
Mar 03
Icy Morning…
Rough Travel Conditions This Morning…Freezing rain and freezing drizzle is making a mess of the morning commute. Thankfully, eventually we’ll climb above freezing around, or just after, noon. Before then, icy travel conditions can be expected. Take it slow or postpone travel until the afternoon if possible. By this afternoon, temperatures will climb above freezing and plain ole rain can be expected into tonight. We don’t anticipate flooding issues locally as rain won’t be heavy enough and temperatures won’t be warm enough to result in significant melting.
Much colder air will blow into town late tonight and Wednesday morning and as a second area of low pressure tracks along the front, widespread accumulating snow is a good bet across the southern half of the state Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. As of now, we still target areas along and south of I-70 most at risk for snow accumulation Wednesday afternoon.
A much drier, but cold, pattern will be with us to wrap up the work week, including more record cold a good bet. Dry and slightly milder conditions are ahead over the weekend before a weak system may deliver a light snow or rain shower early next week.
Looking ahead, it appears as if we finally may deal with a much milder, spring-like pattern around mid March. 60s for highs anyone?! That said, concerns remain that we reverse this and go colder than normal late March.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″ (south)
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″
In case you missed it this morning, we posted an article on meteorological winter and you can find it by clicking here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/icy-morning/
Mar 03
A Word On Meteoroligcal Winter
We wanted to take a moment and discuss the 2014-2015 meteorological winter. Going into the winter, we knew this would be one of many challenges. The nearly ideal SST profile…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-word-on-meteoroligcal-winter/
Nov 21
Looking Closer At The Current SST Anomalies…
It may only be November, but we’ve been locked in the grips of Old Man Winter for the past few weeks (really since the early season snow back at Halloween). While some “relaxation” will likely occur at a point during the first half of December, simply taking a look at the latest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies has to put a smile on the faces of those wanting cold and snowy weather for the upcoming winter.
Let’s take a look at the highlighted features above, starting in the Atlantic and moving towards the Pacific.
1.) Warm water off the eastern seaboard: Suggests some ridging is likely from time to time that could force would-be east coast storms inland. This is a factor in our forecasted above normal snowfall for the winter of 2014-2015.
2.) Modoki El Nino: A Modoki event, or central-based, El Nino is far different than an east-based El Nino event and the associated “blow torch” that can ensue for the winter months. Computer modeling continues to suggest a weak to borderline moderate Modoki event is in the cards. The sensible weather here in the states is vastly different from this type of event than many of the broad-brushed El Nino impact maps you may see on various media outlets. This is a cold, snowy look for many central and east.
3.) North-central PAC Waters: Water temperature profiles in the north-central PAC region continues to be an item we at IndyWx.com lean heavier on in looking at our longer range forecast outlooks. The ring of warmth around the colder north-central anomalies in the Pacific suggests plenty of Alaskan ridging ahead in the coming months. Downstream impacts? Central and eastern troughiness and associated colder than normal air.
As we state, there are MANY drivers that impact the weather, and this is simply taking the SST anomalies (1 ingredient) and dissecting the impact that they alone would have on the region. There are many other factors that we look at as we forecast long range weather. Taken verbatim, the SST anomalies suggest we’re on the right track suggesting a colder, snowier than normal winter looms… By the way, if you haven’t seen our winter outlook that was posted back on 10.19.14, you can view it here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-closer-at-the-current-sst-anomalies/