Updated 10.04.23 @ 7:47a
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Updated 10.02.23 @ 7:44a
“Severe” clear dominates weather headlines in the short-term. This and the unseasonably warm pattern we’re currently enjoying is a byproduct of an omega blocking pattern. Look for plentiful sunshine and afternoon highs 10° to 15° + above average through Wednesday. The combination of our dry airmass and longer nights will still allow for comfortably cool lows (mid to upper 50s).
A game changing cold front will come plowing through the region Thursday morning. Models have upped the ante a bit with respect to moisture return. We now believe scattered to numerous showers (embedded thunder) will arrive Thursday morning, continuing into the afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.75″ seem like a good bet now with this FROPA, with local amounts to 1″. A secondary front will pass Friday night and Saturday morning with even chillier air behind the boundary. Winds will also turn gusty as we open the weekend. By early next week, patchy frost is possible for areas outside of the city, itself.
The bigger “shock” to the system will likely come from the swing in daytime highs. Those unseasonably warm readings will take a nose dive and result in temperatures close to 10° below normal over the weekend into early next week.
Updated 09.26.23 @ 7a
A closed upper low will pivot across the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. Our quiet start this morning will give way to “bumpy” times by evening. We expect scattered, but strong to severe storms to fire up after 5p. A couple of these could produce hail/ wind and we can’t rule out a quick spin up tornado with this setup.
The Storm Prediction Center highlights most of the area in a “marginal” risk of severe weather today, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this area (particularly western and central IN) is upgraded to a “slight” risk at some point.
Storms should become most widespread just before sunset and continue into the overnight hours.
As we transition into Wednesday, morning convection will likely still linger before greatest concentration of rain and storms pivots to eastern and southeastern parts of the state by afternoon.
By the time all is said and done, many central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain but there will be a few lucky folks that accumulate much more (type setup capable of 1”-2”+ in localized areas).
As we get set to rumble into the weekend, drier air will return and plentiful sunshine is expected. We still expect an unseasonably warm open to October with an extended stretch of days in the lower to middle 80s- good for 10° to 15° above the norm.
Updated 08.23.23 @ 7:50a While the heat and humidity grab headlines (and rightfully so), we’ll have to keep close eyes on the potential of outflow boundaries offering up some cooling…
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Updated 08.17.23 @ 6:04a
A quiet start to the day will give way to a noisy lunchtime period as a line of thunderstorms drops in from the northwest.
Vivid lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours can be expected.
The Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a ‘marginal’ risk of severe today. Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated with this frontal passage.
Our unseasonably cool, pleasant airmass we’ve enjoyed the past couple days will be reinforced with this frontal passage. Lows tomorrow and Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s in outlying areas. Dry and sunny conditions will compliment the early fall-like air. Soak it up as a period of unseasonably hot weather still awaits next week.
The byproduct of the sprawling ridge above? A week ahead with highs well into the 90s and an extended period of dry, sunny weather.
