Category: Windy

Bitterly Cold Air Returns…

screen-shot-2017-01-03-at-4-31-46-pmHighlights:

  • Turning much colder tonight
  • Light snow Thursday
  • Bitterly cold, but dry weekend

The Ice Box Returns…An arctic cold front will sweep through the state tonight and help usher in a drastically colder feel as we progress through the middle and latter parts of the week.  Left over rain showers this evening may end as a couple of snow flurries before precipitation comes to an end.  Winds will really increase tonight behind the cold front, gusting between 30 and 40 MPH.  This will lead to single digit wind chill values out the door Wednesday morning.

Our next weather disturbance arrives Thursday morning and will help spread light snow across the southern half of the state.  Snow will continue into the early afternoon before departing off to the east.  Light accumulations (around 1″) will be possible, especially from Indianapolis and points south.  We’ll keep an eye on fresh data coming into the forecast office tonight and update if need be.

Otherwise, the big story going into the weekend will be the return of bitterly cold air.  In fact, overnight lows will drop into the single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Dress warmly if you have plans to be outside for any length of time.

Our air flow will back around to the southwest early next week and temperatures will begin to moderate.  Moisture may make it to the surface to create a little spotty freezing drizzle Monday evening before temperatures sky-rocket to around 50 Tuesday as showers return.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/03/bitterly-cold-air-returns/

Busy 7-Day To Usher In 2017…

screen-shot-2016-12-30-at-7-18-25-pmHighlights:

  • Raw New Year’s Eve
  • Briefly milder Monday with showers
  • Snow prospects mid week

Busy Times…Clouds will increase late tonight and give way to showers during the daytime New Year’s Eve.  Most of this shower activity will be light, but you’ll want to carry the rain gear with you as you leave for New Year’s Eve parties and celebrations throughout central IN.  Once to the nighttime hours, showers should diminish and most of the nighttime should feature rain-free conditions, along with colder temperatures.

New Year’s Day may start out with some sunshine, but clouds will increase through the day and drizzle or light rain is possible by evening.  Low pressure will track northeast from the central Plains into the upper Mid West Monday.  This will place Indiana in a relatively warm southwest flow.  Periods of showers can be expected through the day, along with breezy conditions.  An accompanying cold front will sweep through the state early Tuesday morning and shut rain chances off, shift winds to the northwest, and lead to falling temperatures.

Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems.  Cold high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley and supply unseasonably chilly temperatures, but with sunshine.

Our next storm system will approach Thursday.  Clouds will increase Wednesday night and give way to an expanding snow shield during the day Thursday.  We still have a few days to look at things, but from this distance, the potential is present for an impactful wintry event across a widespread portion of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.  Stay tuned.  Fresh arctic air will move in to put a close on yet another short work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1″ – 3″

Rainfall:  0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/30/busy-7-day-to-usher-in-2017/

Intense Snow Squalls By Evening…

One cold front moved through central Indiana last night with rain showers and a notable wind shift.  A secondary cold front will sweep through the region later this afternoon.  Not only will this deliver reinforcing cold air to wrap up the short work week, but with enough upper level energy and instability, it’ll also serve to ignite some intense snow squalls by evening.  This won’t be a “uniform” snow event, but where the squalls develop, expect rapid reduction in visibility (brief white-out conditions), and a quick coating to 1″ of snow.  Winds will also gust to 40 MPH by evening and overnight.

Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like later this evening:

4p forecast radar

4p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

10p forecast radar

10p forecast radar

If you have travel plans this evening into tonight, please allow extra time to reach your destination as these intense snow squalls lead to brief white-outs and quickly create slick travel.  Scattered snow showers will continue into Friday morning, especially across the northern and eastern sections of the state.  Friday will be a cold day as highs top out around 30.

More with an updated 7-day forecast later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/29/intense-snow-squalls-by-evening/

Snow Squalls Thursday Evening; Active Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-28-at-10-18-11-amHighlights:

  • Showers this evening
  • Snow squalls develop Thursday evening
  • Active weather pattern into next week

Early Sun Gives Way To Showers By Evening…A sunny, frosty start to the day will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky by afternoon and scattered showers by evening.  Latest data suggests showers arrive into central Indiana by 6-7p.  This won’t be a significant rain maker, but just enough to create damp conditions as we put a wrap on Wednesday.

A reinforcing push of cold air will blow through Thursday evening.  With enough instability and upper air energy, scattered heavy snow squalls will become likely across the region by afternoon into the evening.  This won’t be a “uniform” snow event, but some localized accumulation (thinking a coating to less than 1″ in spots), along with dramatic drops in visibility can be expected by evening as these scattered snow squalls increase in coverage.  Additionally, winds will gust to 40 MPH and will aid in creating hazardous travel at times tomorrow PM.  Scattered snow showers will continue into the day Friday.

Moving forward, we continue to eye the potential of a light wintry mix arriving on New Year’s Eve.  As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but we’ll monitor things as new data streams in.  “Light” is the key word for now and temperatures look marginal, at best, for wintry issues.

As we rumble into next week, model consistency and overall agreement is rather non-existent.  This leads to a lower than normal confidence on the important details in regards to the early week storm system (and looking forward, towards a second storm coming along just beyond the current forecast period).  For now we’ll go with showers Monday afternoon paving way to more widespread rain Tuesday.  As colder air rushes in Tuesday night, precipitation will change to snow along with a strengthening northwest wind and an increasingly bitter feel by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/28/snow-squalls-thursday-evening-active-pattern/

VIDEO: Rambling Around On A Wednesday Evening…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/21/video-rambling-around-on-a-wednesday-evening/

Icy Concerns Grow Again Tonight…

After a night of freezing rain, many roadways throughout central IN remain glazed over and hazardous as of this update.  If you absolutely don’t have to travel today, please don’t.  Allow road crews to do their job.  Additionally, we have growing concerns of a new round of freezing rain to sleet and eventually snow tonight.  Lingering moisture on roadways will result in “flash freeze” conditions and treacherous travel tonight into Sunday.

First, a tip of the hat to short-term modeling, including the NAM, for suggesting we’d have a very difficult time eroding the shallow arctic air at the surface across most of central IN today.  While we never bought into the mid/ upper 50s idea the GFS and Euro were once suggesting, we did initially think 40s were in store today.  Forget about it.  Mid to potentially upper 30s are the best we can do today and temperatures will crash this evening as not one, but two, arctic fronts push through central IN.  Even if we didn’t have additional precipitation inbound tonight, “flash freeze” conditions would develop from lingering moisture and lead to renewed problems on area roadways.  Throw in another wave of low pressure riding along the pressing arctic front and a whole slew of problems will develop yet again from a freezing and frozen precipitation perspective.

Note the incredible temperature gradient from downstate to central and northern Indiana early this afternoon.

hrrr_t2m_indy_6The heavy, dense, arctic air will win out as evening turns into nighttime.  Indianapolis is back to the freezing mark around 6p and into the 20s by 9p.

hrrr_t2m_indy_10

hrrr_t2m_indy_13Temperatures will continue to fall through the day Sunday and by Monday morning central Indiana will be in the single digits, with below zero readings across northern parts of the state.

hires_t2m_indy_49Wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees below zero will be common by Sunday night into Monday morning across central Indiana.

gfs_windchill_indy_8Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue across the region into the early afternoon, but begin to expand in coverage and intensity once again by evening.  Note the area of freezing rain expand across central IN, including Indianapolis, between 4p and 7p.

4p

6p

7pFreezing rain will eventually begin to mix with sleet and eventually transition to light snow during the overnight from northwest to southeast.  A coating of snow to less than 1″ is a good bet on the new icy glaze that develops tonight.

When you factor in the current hazardous conditions in place along with the fresh push of arctic air and precipitation tonight, it’s a good idea to hunker down inside and remain off area roadways.  We have big concerns of new travel problems developing by evening across central Indiana.  By this time tomorrow, our attention will turn to the bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chill values developing.

More later, including prospects of snow around Christmas.  As always, you can follow our updates on social media by following us on Twitter (@indywx) and Facebook.  Stay safe!

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/17/icy-concerns-grow-again-tonight/

“Not Fit For Man Nor Beast;” Winter Issues This Weekend…

screen-shot-2016-12-14-at-9-20-36-pmHighlights:

  • Bitter feel
  • Weekend storm
  • Reinforcing arctic air to open Christmas week

Heavy Winter Gear Required…An arctic cold front slammed into central IN Wednesday evening with plummeting temperatures, strong and gusty (40 MPH) winds, blowing snow, and just a downright “rude” feel.  Those bitter conditions will remain through the close of the work week, including dangerous wind chills Thursday.  In fact, we still expect wind chills to fall into the 10-20 degree below zero range through the morning, and remain below zero most of the day.

We’ll flip the page and turn our attention to our next storm system as we rumble into the weekend.  Clouds will increase Friday and moisture will begin to override the cold air locked in place at the surface by the evening and nighttime.  With sub-freezing air still present, this moisture will likely fall as a combination of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana Friday night.  Eventually, temperatures will warm (briefly) above freezing Saturday morning and allow precipitation to transition to light rain.  Before that takes place, slick road conditions could develop Friday night from the sleet/ freezing rain mixture.  Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on the latest data as it comes in.

Almost as fast as we go above freezing Saturday, temperatures will begin to fall once again during the afternoon and evening as heavy, dense, arctic air “oozes” southeast.  As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride northeast along the pressing arctic cold front.  We expect precipitation to break out yet again Saturday evening and night, and fall as a wintry mix before ending as snow.  (Additional light ice and snow accumulation potential).

Temperatures will fall through the day Sunday along with strong and gusty NW winds.  Wind chills will once again fall below zero Sunday evening into Monday morning…

While the frigid conditions will “relax” as we go into the middle of Christmas week, we have an eyebrow raised for the potential of “fun and games” just beyond the current 7-day period.  Far too early for specifics, but the potential of wintry prospects around Christmas are alive and kicking…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″
  • Snowfall:  1″ – 2″

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/14/not-fit-for-man-nor-beast-winter-issues-this-weekend/

Wednesday Morning Weather Rambles…

1.)  Talk about number-busting cold.  With a fresh snowpack and clear skies overnight, temperatures plummeted (even colder than some high resolution data suggested yesterday evening). Officially, it’s the coldest December morning in Indianapolis since Christmas Eve 2013.  We note even a few communities below zero (talking about you Crawfordsville, Zionsville, and Greenfield).

Even colder air rushes in tonight behind a secondary arctic cold front.  Expect an increase in cloudiness, scattered snow flurries, and strengthening NW winds by late afternoon and early evening.  As the reinforcing bitter air pours into the region, wind chill values will fall to 10-20 below zero tonight into Thursday morning.  That’s dangerous stuff, friends, and requires limited time outdoors.  The National Weather Service has issued a *Wind Chill Advisory* 10p this evening until 11a Thursday.

gfs_windchill_indy_62.)  Our next storm will approach Friday evening. Clouds will increase and thicken as the day gives way to evening and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread central IN Friday night.  With snow on the ground and the recent bitter blast, we have concerns the cold air won’t be “dislodged” as quickly as last weekend.  The end result may be a period of accumulating freezing rain/ sleet Friday night into early Saturday morning.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

nam_ptype_slp_mc_25Regardless, icy precipitation will transition to rain during the day Saturday as temperatures briefly surge above freezing.  “Brief” is the key word there as temperatures plummet Saturday night, courtesy of fresh arctic air oozing back in.  A secondary wave of moisture may result in additional wintry issues Saturday night.  Additionally, with sharply colder air returning, “flash freeze” concerns loom Saturday night, as well.

3.)  Another “lobe” of arctic air will plunge into the area Saturday night and help set-up a frigid close to the weekend.  We’ll have to be on sub-zero watch again.

d44.)  Our attention then shifts to what may very well be an active Christmas week in the weather department.  We continue to think the frigid times of this week will relax.  That said, it’ll remain cold enough with a favorable storm track to result in wintry issues as Christmas nears.  Far too early for specifics with this 10+ days out, but keep it in the back of your mind that the weather pattern continues to look active and at least present a threat of wintry precipitation at times Christmas week.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/14/wednesday-morning-weather-rambles-2/

Another Arctic Shot Inbound…

screen-shot-2016-12-11-at-2-49-00-pmHighlights:

  • Even colder this week than last
  • Light snow chances
  • Bigger storm next weekend

Bitterly Cold Week Ahead…We’ll kick off the work week with mostly dry, but mostly cloudy and continued cold conditions.  Be careful if traveling early in the morning as some refreezing may take place across central IN during the overnight.

Reinforcing arctic air will begin to blow into town mid week and an area of light snow may precede this next arctic punch to the gut Tuesday.  Scattered snow showers and flurries will fly in the bitterly cold, arctic, air mass Wednesday and Thursday.  Along with highs only in the teens Thursday, expect below zero wind chills.

Eyes will then shift to the end of the week as our next storm of significance approaches.  This storm appears to be stronger than this past weekend’s system, but similar to this weekend’s overall pattern, we expect a “mild up” and mostly a liquid event across central parts of the state.  The primary reason?  Lack of high latitude blocking to keep the storm track south (more on that in another post later tonight or Monday).  Add in a “feisty” southeast ridge that keeps flexing it’s muscle and you have the makings for what’s likely another cutter to the Lakes.  Unlike this current event, we will have to keep an eye on a potential second wave of moisture moving along the front Sunday as the arctic air returns.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/11/another-arctic-shot-inbound/

Busy Winter Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-7-59-56-amHighlights:

  • Arctic air blows in tonight
  • Winter storm potential this weekend
  • Another blast of arctic air next week

Busy Times Ahead…The fun and active winter pattern has arrived and will keep us forecasters on our toes as we go through the next couple weeks.  Early sunshine will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky this afternoon and a couple snow flurries or scattered light snow showers may precede the arctic plunge this evening.  Snow lovers, unfortunately the arctic wave didn’t materialize as we once thought.  (Hang in there, you have many more snow opportunities ahead).  We’ll turn windy tonight and wind chills will fall into the single digits by Thursday morning.  We’ll stay dry, but cold to wrap up the work week.

Eyes will then shift to the weekend as a developing storm system pushes snow into the region Saturday night.  Snow and/ or a wintry mix will continue Sunday.  Where this remains all snow, it’s likely to be a “plowable” event.  We still need to fine tune the details over the next couple of days to hone in on just where the mixing line will set up.  Thinking now is that from Indianapolis and points north, this is mostly a snow event, but stay tuned.

Another round of snow and wind will blow into town early next week.  This will likely be ahead of an even colder push of air by the middle part of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ – 5″
  • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/07/busy-winter-pattern/

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