Highlights:
- Wet with a few t-storms
- Dry weekend
- Wet then cold to open 2019
Rain Gear Needed…The pattern is transitioning from the predominantly mild stretch of the past couple weeks to one that will turn much colder as we move into January. In between? Active times, as we’re tracking two big storm systems between now and NYE.
The initial push of moisture has reached the I-65 corridor as of this forecast issuance early Thursday morning. Periods of rain will continue through a good chunk of the day and we may even throw in some thunder into the mix later this evening- especially across southern portions of the state. The other big story today? Strong and gusty southerly winds.
Rain will end later tonight with dry, blustery, and colder times returning as we close the week. Highs tomorrow will come predawn before falling through the day. Dry and seasonable times will continue as we move through the last weekend of 2018.
A new storm system promises a return of wet times as we get set to ring in the new year. Definitely plan on having the rain gear handy as you head out to those New Year’s Eve parties Monday. Heavy rain is possible at times. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through here Monday night and we’ll turn sharply colder with snow showers on New Year’s Day, itself.
Highlights:
The basis of our late-December forecast is built from the MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation. We note the MJO is expected to rumble through Phase 4 before heading into Phase 5 around Christmas. Phase 4 (image 2 below) is a warm phase and correlates well to what the week ahead will provide. However, Phase 5 (image 3 below) is a colder phase and could “up the ante” for the potential of wintry weather around Christmas.
If the MJO amplitude remains, it’ll roll into Phase 6 to close the month and open January. Here’s how that would correlate in the temperature department:
The upcoming week will run milder than normal- lining up perfectly with MJO Phase 4.
The first of our targeted holiday storm systems will come at the tail end of the warm Phase 4 and will likely deliver a wind-whipped rain in here as early as Wednesday night and Thursday morning. However, as the storm pulls northeast along the Ohio River, it’ll deepen on its journey into the eastern Great Lakes region. This will help pull colder air into the region, likely resulting in rain transitioning to snow Friday. Given the path of the storm, this doesn’t favor some sort of prolonged backlash snow event, but it could be enough to result in accumulating snow across eastern Ohio Valley sections and downwind of the snow belt regions of northern IN, OH, and MI.
The pattern, as a whole, appears to be one of transition to close the month and open January and it’s not really until we get to mid-January where we think all of the drivers “align” to create more of a lock and hold cold pattern. With that said, a stormy late December pattern can present problems, even in the midst of relatively mild times. We’ll be here to dissect the storms as they come throughout the holiday season…
Highlights: