High pressure will supply absolutely beautiful weather around these parts through Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine along with moderating temperatures.
While mornings will be chilly, afternoon highs will begin to rise. We’ll be near 50 this afternoon, mid to upper 50s Wednesday, and lower 60s Thursday.
A gusty southwesterly wind will not only push those warmer temperatures into the region, but moisture will also be on the increase. Scattered showers will return to the forecast Thursday afternoon before steadier rain arrives Friday into Saturday as a cold front sags south through the region. A couple thunderstorms are also possible.
By the time all is said and done Sunday morning, widespread 1″+ rainfall totals are expected with this storm system across central Indiana. Locally heavier totals can be expected.
High pressure will support a drier close to the upcoming weekend, but temperatures will be much colder.
Scattered showers will spread across central Indiana at times through the day. Most of this rain will be light in nature through the afternoon hours, but a couple of moderate showers are also possible.
A surface low will track east across the lower Ohio Valley tonight and this will result in more concentrated heavy rain falling across the southern portion of the state this evening into early Monday morning. This is a bit further south than model guidance suggested yesterday. Additionally, a couple of strong thunderstorms are also possible tonight across far southern Indiana.
It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) include portions of southern Indiana in a ‘Marginal’ or ‘Slight’ risk of severe weather tonight with future updates.
With the more southern track now expected from this storm system, the corridor of .50″ to 1″ rainfall totals will settle across the southern portions of Indiana, with 0.10″ to 0.25″ expected for central Indiana on average.
Rain will come to an end for all of the state by mid to late morning Monday with dry conditions returning Monday evening into the middle of the week, thanks to high pressure.
Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through the daytime hours Thursday before a storm system approaches Thursday night into Friday. The gusty southwesterly air flow in advance of this storm will help pull warmer conditions northeast into the Ohio Valley. Highs between 65-70 are on tap by Thursday afternoon. Unsettled weather is anticipated to remain through next weekend along with progressively colder conditions.
Significant weather alert day across central IN, including damaging wind potential and severe thunderstorms…
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What: All modes of severe weather, including tornadic potential. Damaging wind gusts.
When: Damaging wind gusts develop late tonight into the predawn Thursday. Severe storms are most likely Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.
Wind: SW 45-55 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH+
Winds will begin to gust to potentially damaging levels during the overnight tonight.
A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will impact central Indiana during the overnight and again Thursday afternoon and evening. It’s the second round tomorrow afternoon that has us most concerned for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. A lot of this hinges on just how much clearing takes place from the morning round of showers and embedded thunder. Should we clear things out in significant fashion, and introduce some sunshine, the threat of severe weather tomorrow afternoon will grow significantly. Conversely, should we hold onto a mostly overcast sky, this will limit the overall severity of afternoon storms. The sun would help destabilize things in rather rapid fashion and given some of the other parameters in place, would lead to all modes of severe weather with storms that develop tomorrow afternoon- including large hail and tornadoes.
Additionally, due to the sheer strength of the storm system, damaging winds are still in play tomorrow (even outside of thunderstorms). In fact, winds will begin to gust upwards of 50 MPH+ during the overnight period tonight. If you haven’t already, please take the time now to tie down or secure loose objects to keep them from being blown about in the wind.
Conditions will begin to improve as early as tomorrow night, although we’ll turn much colder. Air will grow cold enough to promote “wrap around” moisture to fall in the form of snow by Friday afternoon.
Threat of strong to severe storms will be greatest Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours.
Thursday is shaping up to be a significant weather day across the state. Multi-threat severe potential and damaging wind event both on the table…
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Concern is growing for the potential of severe weather Thursday. A strong and potentially damaging wind event is still on the table Wednesday night through Thursday, as well…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-concern-is-increasing-for-the-potential-of-severe-weather-thursday-strong-wind-event-on-deck/
Strong winds and the potential of strong storms loom Thursday. We look in more detail at these threats and ahead to the pattern for late March and into April…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-closer-look-at-the-strong-wind-and-storm-potential-more-on-the-late-march-april-pattern/
High winds and storms arrive Thursday. We also look ahead towards late-March and April…
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After a cold open to March, a taste of spring will develop this week as temperatures go into the 50s Tuesday, 60s Wednesday, and 70s (not a typo) for the first time this year on Thursday. Unfortunately, this spring preview will be joined by a strong and potentially damaging wind event Thursday.
A combination of ingredients has us particularly concerned in advance of this event:
A well mixed airmass
Lapse rates exceeding 8 deg or higher C/Km- enabling easier access to the high winds aloft (you can read more about this here if curious)
Dry slot after Wednesday showers and Thursday evening rain
Accordingly, the potential of 60 MPH + gusts are possible Thursday and we’d expect the National Weather Service to eventually have to issue high wind products as we get closer. These are the type gusts that will lead to downed trees and scattered power outages.
Already, modeling is producing ominous signals for very high and potentially damaging gusts out of the southwest Thursday. Stay tuned, friends.
Looking at the week ahead and the pattern as we move through the latter portion of March…
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