Category: Windy

Feb 03

02.03.21 Weather Bulletin: Keeping A Watchful Eye On The Weekend…

Updated 02.03.21 @ 8:19a

Best Day Of The Week…We can’t get too picky this time of year in the weather department. Long time fellow Hoosiers know to never take a day featuring sunshine for granted in early February. Though still chilly, given the pattern ahead, I’d recommend getting outside and enjoying some of those rays today.

A cold front blows into town Thursday and will deliver a chilly rain by the afternoon. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the system, rain will likely mix with and end as a period of snow across the northern half of the state Thursday evening. Though the moisture will be leaving as the cold air is arriving, we may still be able to squeeze out a dusting to 1″ of wet snow for northern areas.

Attention will then shift to an arctic wave that will move into the Ohio Valley this weekend. Snow will become widespread across the central Plains Friday evening into Saturday morning before expanding east into our neck of the woods Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With cold air in place, this will be a higher ratio snow event than we’ve seen so far this winter (“fluff factor” will be in full effect). Additionally, strong and gusty winds are expected during this time frame leading to blowing and drifting concerns. Stay tuned. We’ll take a stab at early accumulation numbers with this evening’s Client Video update.

Additional upper level energy will scoot through the region into early next week, keeping a supply of snow showers ongoing. While still cold, models have pushed back the truly dangerous cold until late week. Case of delayed, but not denied? Unfortunately think so…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/03/02-03-21-weather-bulletin-keeping-a-watchful-eye-on-the-weekend/

Feb 02

Never Trust An Arctic Wave: Accumulating Snow Prospects Growing This Weekend…

Updated: 02.02.21 @ 6:15p

While we have a few flurries (thanks to a little help from Lake Michigan) flying this evening, the bulk of the upcoming 48 hours will be rather quiet across the region. The next item on the agenda will come in the form of a cold front Thursday afternoon. As of now we anticipate rain (perhaps a brief early mix, but this won’t be a big deal) to arrive into central Indiana between 11a-1p Thursday. Mostly light to, at times, moderate rain will continue into the evening hours before ending as a brief period of wet snow Thursday evening (again, little if any impacts are expected).

Rainfall totals between 0.25″ and 0.50″ can be expected Thursday PM with the passage of the cold front.

The relatively quiet regime should return Friday, but by this time all eyes will be focused on the 1st of (2) arctic frontal systems. The 1st of these arctic fronts will sweep through the state Saturday PM and early Sunday. As this takes place, an arctic wave is expected to form along the leading edge of the true arctic air Saturday evening. This should result in an expanding area of snow that originally develops in the central Plains Friday night/ Saturday morning before pushing east, northeast Saturday into Sunday. With the arctic air pouring into the region, this should be a high ratio type snow and blowing/ drifting issues will likely be more of a problem than with the majority of systems so far this season.

While this is all taking place, a secondary low pressure system should develop along the Carolina coast early Sunday morning and it’s this system that will likely become the primary “player on the field” late in the weekend or early next week. Before that though, the arctic wave will likely result in a stripe of accumulating snow from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana (too early for specific amounts). This will lay the groundwork for the coldest air of the season early next week…

Snow removal clients, as well as those in the ag. industry should keep close tabs on the weekend forecast. While we’re not expecting a widespread heavy snow event, the combination of snow, wind, and eventual bitterly cold air will lead to significant impacts as we move forward.

I would plan on temperatures falling into the single digits below zero, along with wind chill values potentially approaching 20° below zero by early next week.

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/02/never-trust-an-arctic-wave-accumulating-snow-prospects-growing-this-weekend/

Jan 10

01.10.21 Weather Bulletin: Moderating Ahead Of A Late Week Cold Front…

Updated: 01.10.21 @ 11:28a

Moderating Trends Gets Underway Monday…The 2nd half of the weekend will feature more of what we’ve grown so used to as of late: overcast conditions. With the thick cloud deck in place, afternoon highs won’t budge much. As we flip the page to the new work week, a milder westerly and southwesterly air flow will turn gusty at times (especially by midweek), but this will also help boost temperatures to levels around 10° above normal. We should also see a little more of that vitamin D through midweek.

We’re still targeting a cold front to blow through our neck of the woods Friday. This, coupled with just enough upper level energy, will likely be enough to ignite a brief period of scattered snow shower action Friday PM. Colder air will settle into the area next weekend…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/10/01-10-21-weather-bulletin-moderating-ahead-of-a-late-week-cold-front/

Jan 09

01.09.21 Weather Bulletin: Unusually Quiet Times Continue…

Updated 01.09.21 @ 8:18a

Fighting For That Sun To Return…Skies cleared overnight across central Indiana and this allowed temperatures to dip into the middle 20s (still about 5° above normal for most). Unfortunately, clouds are once again increasing this morning and will remain with us through the day. We’ll still hold out hope for a few breaks in the cloud cover from time to time through the weekend, but we can expect mostly cloudy conditions to persist.

Looking ahead, there’s really no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the forecast as quiet times remain. Our best opportunity to see more significant sunshine will likely come Tuesday. We’ll then eye a cold front that will pass through central Indiana as we close the work week. Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds can be expected ahead of this front Thursday. This will be a moisture starved system, but we could squeeze out a few scattered snow showers Friday.

Enjoy your Saturday. We’ll be back later this afternoon with a fresh Client Video update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/09/01-09-21-weather-bulletin-unusually-quiet-times-continue/

Dec 17

VIDEO: Weak Weekend System; Push Of Arctic Air For Christmas…

A weak system will scoot through the region this weekend and then eyes turn to the coldest air so far this season by Christmas Eve…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/17/video-weak-weekend-system-push-of-arctic-air-for-christmas/

Nov 30

Client Brief: “System” Snow Transitions To Lake-Effect…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating Snow/ Wind

When: Today through Tuesday Morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: NW 15-20 MPH; Gusting to 35 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate, especially with late afternoon-evening lake-effect snow band.

Pavement Impacts: Salting required; plowing required within lake-effect snow band.

Summary: We’ll undergo a transition from “system” snow (mostly light) this morning into early afternoon to a more localized, but robust lake-effect snow event late afternoon and this evening. At least for central portions of the state, this is the better opportunity for accumulating snow. As temperatures continue to fall and the wind direction becomes better aligned, a band of lake effect snow is expected to develop initially across northwestern Indiana late morning. It’s this band of snow that should continue to get better organized and heavier as we move into late afternoon and the evening hours and be driven well inland. Eventually, this lake snow band should reach areas as far south as Indianapolis (and surrounding ‘burbs) by late afternoon, potentially including the 5 o’clock rush for parts of the city. Snowfall intensity within this band is expected to be heavy enough to whiten roadways and create slick spots. For most this will only last an hour or two before the band pivots east and impacts east-central Indiana for a longer period of time into the overnight and early Tuesday morning. If you find yourself under this lake effect snow band, a quick 1″ to 2″ can be expected

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tonight (video package)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/30/client-brief-system-snow-transitions-to-lake-effect/

Nov 28

Client Brief: Sunday Night – Monday System…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating Snow/ Wind

When: Sunday night and Monday

Temperatures: Low-Mid 30s

Wind: N 15-20 MPH; Gusting to 35 MPH

Blowing Drifting: Minimal to Moderate in lake enhanced zone, as well as east-central IN

Pavement Impacts: Salting required; plowing likely required in lake enhanced zone, as well as east-central IN

Summary: While not nearly as robust as what guidance earlier this week printed out, the season’s first widespread wintry event looms Sunday night into Monday. This is a byproduct of phasing between the southern and northern jet stream (initially set off by the evolving strongly positive PNA), but there are important differences in the speed of the initial vort. max being a bit more progressive that will keep this from bombing out like earlier guidance showed. Consequently, this will result in a much further east system (may still not have seen that eastward trend finish). While our forecast specifically focuses on Indiana, if you have travel plans east of here into Ohio early next week, please pay special attention to the local National Weather Service products as impacts will be greater from heavy snow and strong winds.

Locally, we anticipate precipitation overspreading central Indiana (from southwest to northeast) around, or just after, midnight Sunday night. Initially, this should be in the form of a cold rain before precipitation transitions to wet snow prior to sunrise. Moderate snow should be falling across east-central Indiana from the mid morning hours Monday into early afternoon. Additionally, by this point, a more organized band of lake-effect snow should be firing up off Lake Michigan. This is a bit of a wild card as a combination of ingredients favor a pretty robust lake snow band making it further south than typical. As the wind direction veers towards more of a northwesterly flow late Monday afternoon and evening, it’s possible this lake effect snow band pivots into the Indy metro and surrounding ‘burbs. We’ll keep a close eye on this as time draws closer. Within this snow band, heavier accumulations are possible. Snow showers will continue into Tuesday morning before diminishing.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tonight (video package, including longer range update).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/28/client-brief-sunday-night-monday-system/

Nov 26

VIDEO: Quiet Weather Builds In, Latest Thoughts On An Increasingly Wintry Pattern As We Open December…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/26/video-quiet-weather-builds-in-latest-thoughts-on-an-increasingly-wintry-pattern-as-we-open-december/

Nov 26

Confidence Continues To Increase On A Major Winter Storm Early Next Week…

Good morning and happy Thanksgiving! From our home to yours we want to wish you a blessed holiday! During a year where it’s been a bit more “hectic” than normal,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/26/confidence-continues-to-increase-on-a-major-winter-storm-early-next-week/

Nov 25

Strong Storm Potential By Evening; More Chatter About Late Weekend-Next Week…

It’s a wet morning across central Indiana as widespread rain (some of which is moderate to heavy) is falling for most of the region. This is due to a well organized low pressure system and associated frontal boundary currently spinning across the central Plains.

As the widespread shield of rain departs late morning and into the early afternoon hours, we’ll have a “lull” in the activity until late afternoon and early evening. That’s when we anticipate storms to fire as the area of low pressure moves across the state. Should we get into any sort of sunshine later this afternoon (questionable at best), the opportunity for severe weather would increase during the 4p to 9p window (west to east). As it is, a couple of strong-to-severe storms can’t be ruled out given the dynamics in play. The biggest threat would be localized hail and/ or damaging wind gusts with these stronger cells.

Widespread 1″+ rainfall can be expected (both from this morning’s rain and what’s ahead this evening) with locally heavier amounts- especially south of the I-70 corridor.

Things will quieten down tonight and we still anticipate a much calmer Thanksgiving Day, itself, continuing through Black Friday and Saturday as high pressure settles overhead.

By this time, of course, attention will turn to the “shenanigans” ahead early next week. We have no changes to our thinking a significant event is ahead and continue to favor this initial storm tracking west of the spine of the Appalachians. Operational model will likely continue to offer up a wide range of solutions (sometimes with each model update). The item we’ll be most focused on is the phasing of the 2 streams. The timing of this taking place will play a critical role into who ends up with a sizable snow/ wind event vs. mostly rain with backlash snow. Stay tuned and know, as per usual, we’ll be posting away right through the holiday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/25/strong-storm-potential-by-evening-more-chatter-about-late-weekend-next-week/

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