Category Archives: Windy

Here We Go Again…

Yet another winter storm is bearing down on the region and will promise a snowy time of things here Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

Surface low pressure will begin to organize over the lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday morning and move northeast…eventually into PA before a secondary low takes over off the Northeast coast Wednesday.  We like our track of the storm below.

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This will really be the first storm that’s tapped into Gulf of Mexico moisture since the major winter storm that pounded our area early last month.  Moisture will be plentiful with this system and, when combined with the cold air, will lead to significant snow accumulation for most of central Indiana, with significant ice accumulation expected downstate across southern sections of Indiana.

We think snow begins to develop across central Indiana as early as early to mid afternoon Tuesday, but the heaviest of the snow will fall Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.  In fact, snowfall rates may approach 1″ per hour for a time Tuesday night, especially where the heavy snow bands set up.  Just exactly where do these heavy bands of snow develop?  It’s a very tough call, but thinking at this juncture would suggest mainly north of Indianapolis.  Additionally, latest data suggests a thundersnow report or two may occur tomorrow night within the heavy snow bands.  Snow will begin to taper from west to east Wednesday morning, but the open country will have to deal with some blowing and drifting through the day Wednesday as the low departs northeast.  We’ll then enjoy a dry and cold couple of days as arctic high pressure builds in before our next winter storm develops for the weekend…

We forecast widespread 4-8″ (localized 8″+ totals possible within convective heavy snow bands) of snow to accumulate by the time all is said and done across central Indiana and our call right now is for the greatest chance of those 8″ reports to fall within the highlighted zone below.

HVY Snow Totals 020414:020514

Quick Bullet Point Thoughts:

  • Snow develops towards 3-4pm Tuesday.
  • Heaviest snow falls Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.
  • 4-8″ of snowfall expected across central Indiana, with heaviest totals from Indy’s northern suburbs and points north.  Locally heavier totals can be expected within the heavier convective snow bands.
  • Significant ice accumulation of 0.25″, or greater, possible down state
  • Placement of embedded heavy snow bands will have to be monitored closely Tuesday night and may be accompanied by thunder and lightning.
  • Snow begins to diminish Wednesday morning, but blowing and drifting continues through the day.

The dry slot, originally mentioned here Sunday, will likely impact southern and south-central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will essentially shut off the accumulating snow threat south of I-70 during the wee morning hours Wednesday with some light freezing rain and/ or freezing drizzle glazing over the snow that falls.  Meanwhile, accumulating snow will begin to taper Wednesday morning north of I-70.  The latest high resolution NAM simulated radar, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics, shows this well.

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No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, NAM Model, snow, Windy, Winter Storm

Tracking Two Winter Storms This Week

Initial thoughts from our first of two winter storms this week can be found below.  We’ll fine tune that forecast this evening, but feel good about our initial call.

A second winter storm is brewing for the late week and weekend period.  While we still have details to sort out with this storm, thinking would take a deepening surface low out of the Deep South into Ohio for the weekend.  This would, once again, place central Indiana in the favored zone for heavy snow.  Additionally, with a deepening surface low into Ohio, wind would be of concern with considerable to severe blowing and drifting.  It’s still very early in the game and we have time to watch things unfold, but we wanted to go ahead and make sure you put a mental note on the Friday-Sunday period, as well….

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No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Windy, Winter Storm

Arctic Front Hits Tonight With Wind And Snow Squalls

Today will be briefly milder as a nice southwesterly air flow develops and helps send temperatures close to 40 degrees for the city, itself.  Though winds will be gusty, 40 degrees will seem awfully nice!  Enjoy!  It won’t last long though as our next major arctic front already has it’s eyes set on our region.  In fact, we think snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arrive just prior to midnight. These will be short, but intense, bursts of snow and will be capable of producing white out conditions, as well as leading to a quick 1-2″ of fresh snow tonight for many across central Indiana.

Here’s a look at forecast radar tonight, showing the heavy bursts of snow during the overnight.

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Winds will once again become a problem, gusting in excess of 30 MPH and helping drive in some dangerously cold air.  We think we fall below zero early Monday morning (before the rush hour begins in earnest) and anticipate yet another horrible Monday morning commute.

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This arctic air really tightens it’s grip heading into Tuesday and we think lows approach 15-20 degrees below zero Tuesday morning.  Below zero readings make it as far south as the southern Appalachians.

We’ll deal with yet another, potentially more widespread, winter event late in the week.  More on that in the coming days…  Enjoy your Sunday!

No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Models, snow, Windy

1st of 3 Rounds Of Wind-Whipped Snow This Weekend!

The first of three rounds of accumulating, wind-whipped, snow is blowing into central Indiana as I type this.  We still think widespread 2-3″ totals fall across many central Indiana neighborhoods during the overnight, with snow ending from north to south between 6-8am.  Additionally, blowing and drifting snow will be a huge concern and local white-outs/ near blizzard conditions will develop into the morning Saturday.  Needless to say, if you don’t have to travel tonight or Saturday, it would be a great time to hunker down at home, start a fire, and enjoy friends and family!

Here’s a look at forecast radar during the “height” of the storm, most likely between 2-4a for most areas:

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Snow will end Saturday morning, but we’ll have to contend with continued severe blowing and drifting, especially in central Indiana’s open country.  Remain cautious if you must venture out.  Winds will back around from the southwest during the wee morning hours Saturday to a colder (yet again) northwest direction late Saturday morning, resulting in another bitter feel to the air Saturday afternoon.

We’ll enjoy a brief calm period Saturday evening (despite continued gusty winds), but our meteorological eyes will already be poised to the northwest, focused on our next round of accumulating snow Sunday morning. We call this “warm advection” snow as it’ll fall on milder southwest winds ahead of yet another arctic front due in here Sunday night.  This will likely be a  “thumper” snow as additional accumulation Sunday of 1-3″ is a solid bet at this point- most of which falls within a 2-3 hour time period.

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Sunday afternoon will likely turn drier (and briefly milder) before that “famous” arctic front slams into the region Sunday night. We think additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will accompany the frontal passage (FROPA) and could easily lay down yet another half inch to one inch of accumulation Sunday night/ early Monday.

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All of this additional weekend snow will be capped off with some of the most brutally bitter air so far this season (and that’s obviously saying something, considering how cold it’s been). Gusty northwest winds will lead to continued blowing and drifting issues in the open country early next week, but produce dangerous wind chill values, colder than 30 degrees below zero from time to time.  Additionally, overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely fall to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero and highs on Tuesday will likely struggle just to make it to the 0 degree mark for a high…

No Comments Arctic Cold, Blizzard, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Windy

Combo Of Snow & Wind Likely To Cause Problems…

We wanted to take some time to focus solely on our next shot of accumulating snow due in here late Friday night into early Saturday morning.  This will be a quick-hitter, but with snow ratios much higher than normal (thanks to the arctic air mass in place), it won’t take much moisture to fluff up a few inches of powder.

Before we get into the next snow, we can’t ignore what will be a growing concern as morning progresses into afternoon Friday.  The pressure gradient will really begin to tighten between arctic high pressure to our south and the next cold front and associated low pressure to our north.  West winds will increase and gust in excess of 30 MPH by early to mid afternoon.  This will lead to concerns for blowing and drifting in the open country from the existing snow pack in place.  Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will begin to cloud up later in the afternoon and evening.

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A continued very windy evening will be coupled with light to moderate snow spreading south over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning.  We note the heaviest snow likely to fall in the pre dawn hours Saturday and may become briefly heavy at times.  We forecast 2-3″ of new snow with this system across all of central Indiana, but when you combine a strong west wind, shifting to the northwest Saturday morning, trouble will result.  Significant blowing and drifting snow can be expected through the night and into Saturday.  Travel will likely be very tough late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Not only will we have to contend with severe blowing and drifting, but we’ll also have to deal with local white-out conditions.

The latest high resolution model data shows widespread snow across the region Saturday morning before snow tapers by mid morning from north to south.

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As mentioned in posts from earlier this week, we’ll also deal with yet another round of accumulating snow for the second half of the weekend and we’ll have more on this tomorrow and Saturday…

No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy