First, I apologize for the lack of posts today. I had my first (and hopefully only) encounter with food poison yesterday evening and it’s taken most of the day to…
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Highlights:
Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN. Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County). Further north it’s mainly a snow event. Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.
Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon
We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives. While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise. Here’s our updated snowfall map.
The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight. Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.
Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day. Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period. This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…
Highlights:
Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping! Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.
Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN. The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.
Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week. Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west. We’ll continue to monitor. Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.
The differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.
We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound. Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.
Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November. Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”
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Highlights:
A cold front swept through the state during the predawn hours. While a few breaks of sunshine may be seen early this morning, low clouds will quickly spread back over the region.
Wind will be the big story today as we still think gusts over 50 MPH are a good bet throughout central parts of the state. Note the tight pressure gradient that remains in place across the region today into Friday. Friday won’t be AS windy as today, but still quite blustery.
Our next big weather maker will arrive during the early to middle portions of next week. Model consensus continues to highlight a hefty rain event and thunderstorms. Early numbers would suggest 2″-3″ potential. More details on our next storm tomorrow and on Twitter (@IndyWx).
Before we close this morning, we wanted to post the updated JAMSTEC seasonal outlook for the upcoming winter. As a whole there aren’t a lot of changes from previous runs. (We like to see consistency :-)).
Overall, it agrees with our forecast and strongly disagrees with any of those warm winter forecasts out there for the south and east. One note, just because the drier anomalies show up over the Ohio Valley (what you would typically expect during a moderate to strong El Nino event) doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a lower than normal snow season. Keep in mind, moisture content in snow is much less than rain.
After taking a look at things, I like where we stand with our Winter Outlook. One thing’s for sure, time will tell!