What Season Is This? Active Pattern Develops…

Screen Shot 2015-12-07 at 7.31.39 AMHighlights:

  • AM fog gives way to sunshine
  • Another fast moving disturbance moves through Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Major warmth
  • Stormy finish

A quick glance at the updated 7-day shows two things, a lack of cold air and a rather active time of things.  In the near term, it remains a relatively quiet period.  We’ll deal with morning fog in spots this morning (especially north-central IN) and another fast moving disturbance in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame.

The big story as we move into the back half of the week is the unseasonably warm regime that will have many asking “What season are we in?”  We’ll aim for the upper 50s Thursday, around 60 Friday, and upper 60s Saturday as a strong SW flow develops in advance of our next storm system

Warmth will reach it's peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell
Warmth will reach it’s peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell

While a scattered, fast moving, shower is possible Saturday, the big story will be the warmth and a gusty SW breeze.

Our storm system will grow closer Sunday and we’ll ramp up rain and storm chances accordingly during that period.  Our two most trusted global models handle things differently as we progress into the Sunday-Monday time frame (strength, track, and timing), and we’ll need to continue to fine tune that particular period as we move forward.  As it stands now we’ll forecast rain and thunderstorms to become widespread Sunday before colder air arrives on the backside of the storm. Stay tuned.

SundayMap

MondayMap

Major Warmth Ahead Of Storm Next Weekend…

The near term period is about as quiet as you’ll get it this time of year so that gives us an opportunity to search for the next “trouble maker.”  Out…

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Rain Changes To Snow Today; Busy Pattern Into Early December…

Screen Shot 2015-11-21 at 7.47.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain changes to snow
  • Early season arctic air settles in
  • Next storm arrives for Thanksgiving
  • Eyeing a cold open to December

Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN.  Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County).  Further north it’s mainly a snow event.  Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.

Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon

8aSat
Forecast radar 8a, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

 

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives.  While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise.  Here’s our updated snowfall map.

112115SnowMap3The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight.  Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.

Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day.  Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period.  This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”