Quick video update from the road this evening on what the upcoming work week will deal central Indiana:
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When we look forward to the overall pattern as we wrap up October and open November, we see good general agreement between the GEFS and EPS in a “blocky” look, including an eastern trough. This is a stormy signal.
There will be an attempt at a significant eastern storm around Halloween- give or take a few days. The specifics associated with this storm are difficult (at best) to pin point from this distance. When thinking ahead towards Halloween, keep the potential of wet conditions, strong winds, and chilly temperatures at the forefront. Stay tuned.
What’s much more clear is that the pattern will continue to promote a colder than average feel during the period.
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High pressure and warm southwesterly winds will lead to one more summer-like day before significant changes take place. Plentiful sunshine can be expected Tuesday with temperatures closer to a record high (88° set in 1939) than the average of 68°.
A cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday evening and will lead to a better chance of more concentrated showers and thunderstorms for our hump day. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″ Wednesday afternoon which is almost unheard of by October standards. As a result, a couple of the storms may be accompanied by locally heavy rainfall.
Winds of change will be blowing in earnest Wednesday night and Thursday morning and a legit fall feel will greet us out the door! Most of central Indiana can expect temperatures to be falling into the 40s Thursday morning along with a nice northwest breeze.
Longer term, a new storm system (including remnant moisture from Sergio) is expected to impact our weekend weather. We’ll trend our forecast wetter with reviewing some of the latest data. Sunday appears to be the wettest day.
An even more impressive push of fall air will follow on the heels of Sergio’s remnants early next week, including the potential of frost for more of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
I.) An unseasonably warm pattern will remain as we move into the middle of the week. A more summer-like feel can be expected as opposed to the increasingly chilly early October air we should be dealing with. Highs will reach the middle 80s this afternoon along with a gusty SW breeze.
II.) After a windy and warm Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday. Not everyone will get wet, but a few locally heavy downpours can be expected.
III.) The ridge will “flex its muscle” into early and middle parts of next week and promote an extended (and unusual) stretch of 80s. Don’t put those shorts away just yet…
IV.) A “game changer” of a cold front will approach late next week with better chances of organized rain and storms followed by a return of more seasonal times…
V.) Ingredients are in place for a significant shift in the pattern around the middle of October and colder times continue to look like they will return as we flip the page into Weeks 2-3.
