Category: Windy

Quiet Now; Weak System For Christmas…

Highlights:

  • Quiet weather for Christmas travel
  • Weak system Christmas Day
  • Stronger storm mid week

Chilly, But Rather Quiet…We’ll have some clouds around, but we should stay generally free of precipitation through Christmas Eve.  A weak weather system will provide some light snow or a wintry mix Christmas morning before ending as light rain or drizzle.  This won’t be a big deal, but will provide a festive time of things as you wake up to see what Santa brought.

A stronger (and warmer) storm will deliver rain Thursday along with gusty southerly winds.  Dry and colder weather will return as we get set to close out the week.

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Pattern Turns More Active…

While we’re tracking multiple weather makers between now and Christmas, there doesn’t appear to be any sort of major storm(s) on the horizon.

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“Pulling The Curtain Back” On The Late December Pattern…

Late December through early January is a critical time period where most folks (even those maybe not normally interested in the weather) are glued in on the forecast.  For some, they’re rooting for a white Christmas, while others are preparing for holiday travel to see loved ones.  The idea here of a transitional pattern remains and this should promote active weather during the holidays this year.

Understanding things can change with respect to timing from this distance (in some cases 2+ weeks out), these are the dates we’re targeting for storm impacts across central Indiana:

  • Dec. 20-21
  • Dec. 24-25
  • Dec. 27
  • Dec. 30-31

Before we talk specifics, it’s important to look at some of the pattern drivers.  Some of these drivers include teleconnections such as the NAO, AO, PNA, and MJO.

Forecast indices with respect to the AO, NAO, and PNA are expected to be more or less neutral through the late month period.  This is what the respective teleconnection “state” would result in the temperature department across the country.

Arctic Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation

Pacific North American Pattern

The basis of our late-December forecast is built from the MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation.  We note the MJO is expected to rumble through Phase 4 before heading into Phase 5 around Christmas.  Phase 4 (image 2 below) is a warm phase and correlates well to what the week ahead will provide.  However, Phase 5 (image 3 below) is a colder phase and could “up the ante” for the potential of wintry weather around Christmas.

If the MJO amplitude remains, it’ll roll into Phase 6 to close the month and open January.  Here’s how that would correlate in the temperature department:

The upcoming week will run milder than normal- lining up perfectly with MJO Phase 4.

The first of our targeted holiday storm systems will come at the tail end of the warm Phase 4 and will likely deliver a wind-whipped rain in here as early as Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  However, as the storm pulls northeast along the Ohio River, it’ll deepen on its journey into the eastern Great Lakes region.  This will help pull colder air into the region, likely resulting in rain transitioning to snow Friday.  Given the path of the storm, this doesn’t favor some sort of prolonged backlash snow event, but it could be enough to result in accumulating snow across eastern Ohio Valley sections and downwind of the snow belt regions of northern IN, OH, and MI.

The pattern, as a whole, appears to be one of transition to close the month and open January and it’s not really until we get to mid-January where we think all of the drivers “align” to create more of a lock and hold cold pattern.  With that said, a stormy late December pattern can present problems, even in the midst of relatively mild times.  We’ll be here to dissect the storms as they come throughout the holiday season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pulling-the-curtain-back-on-the-late-december-pattern/

Damp At Times Into The Weekend; Christmas Pattern Change?

 

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Freezing Fog This Morning; Unsettled Late Week Conditions…

Highlights:

  • Freezing fog this morning
  • Mid and late week rain
  • Briefly milder mid-month

Slow It Down…Freezing fog is creating slick travel in and around the city, itself, and points north.  Please allow extra time to reach your destination this morning and take it slow.  As we move into the afternoon, the low clouds and fog should slowly lift, but it’s likely not until we get to mid to late afternoon. With the longer period of fog and clouds, we’ve dropped forecast highs a few degrees today.

We should still get in on a sunny Tuesday before our first of a series of storm system begin to impact the area Wednesday.  Weak low pressure will result in increasing clouds and a narrow band of showers Wednesday afternoon.  Rain may mix with snow across north-central parts of the state.

As we look ahead, a slow moving (bigger) storm system spells periods of wet weather as we close the week and head into the weekend.  While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible during the period, along with gusty winds, and an overall “raw” feel.  Early thinking here is that we salvage the 2nd half of the weekend with at least a touch of sun.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/freezing-fog-this-morning-unsettled-late-week-conditions/