Category: Weather Rambles

Aug 24

Wednesday Morning Weather Notebook…

1.)  Humidity is on the rise this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow late morning into the early afternoon.

CODNEXLAB-1km-C_Illinois-rad-ani24-201608241115-100-100-022.)  HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.

13.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday.  We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week.  That said, “briefly” is the key word.  Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.

DryMoist4.)  Attention next week will shift to the tropics.  There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week.  Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.

Here on the home front, it’s not entirely out of the equation our region deals with tropical remnants in the Week 2 time period.

Patience is required as we sort through the data in the coming days…

AL99_current

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Jul 21

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) A big ole ridge will supply oppressive heat and humidity across the Mid West this weekend.  Unseasonably hot temperatures will combine with downright “soupy” air to create heat indices between 105-110 degrees across central IN this weekend.  Take it easy and implement frequent breaks if your plans take you outdoors.

HeatIndex

2.) Similar to what we’re seeing on radar this evening, thunderstorms will also make an appearance from time to time for some.  With an atmosphere loaded with moisture, any storm that develops will be plenty capable of producing “frog straggler” type rainfall rates.  Perhaps there will be a couple periods of more concentrated storm activity, focused on late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and again late Saturday night-Sunday morning.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

LateFriNight

3.)  The pattern is one (as has been the case all summer) that’s transient and the situation that develops to wrap up July and open August is an all-too-familiar look around these parts: NW flow aloft that offers storm potential, along with seasonal to slightly warmer than average.  It’s a wet look, overall.

WetPattern

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

This is what the upper air pattern should look like as we close July- 10 days from now (hard to believe)!

July31st

4.)  Looking further ahead, the latest JMA Weeklies continue to suggest the most sustained hot pattern should remain across the west as we rumble deeper into August.  That’s not to say we won’t deal with periods of hot weather here at times, but sustained heat will be hard to come by with such a pattern…

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.29 AM

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.39 AM

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Jul 11

Monday Morning Video Update…

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Jul 08

Friday Morning Rambles…

1.) We’ve got another warm, humid day dialed up and as a cold front moves in this afternoon, scattered strong to severe storms are possible.  We think east-central Indiana stands the greatest threat at experiencing a severe storm later this evening.

2

12.) The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the state tonight and allow a much drier and cooler air mass to push in for the weekend.  We’ll enjoy a downright pleasant feel this weekend, including lots of sunshine.  Enjoy!

33.) Dry weather should continue into early next week, but wet and stormy weather will return as early as Tuesday, continuing into the latter portions of the week.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16This is the start of what should be a rather wet period for mid and late month.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_64.) This is also a continued “transient” pattern through the end of the month, meaning we really don’t see any sort of sustained dry, hot weather in the foreseeable future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-3/

Jul 05

Entering A Stormy Period…

We’re enjoying quiet times across Indiana this evening, but times are quickly changing to put us into a stormy position between Wednesday morning and wrapping up the work week.

While the overall pattern is an easy one to label from a broad scale perspective as “stormy,” the precise details are incredibly difficult to pin point much more than 12-24 hours in advance.  With that said, most of the state is very much in fair game for periods of storms (generally tracking in a NW to SE fashion) between now and the end of the work week.  Eventually, drier air will set us up for a very pleasant weekend, including lots of sunshine and cooler temperatures.  In fact, latest data still suggests we can expect to wake up to the 50s Sunday and/ or Monday morning(s).

Before we enjoy the pleasant weekend weather, the first of a series of storm complexes will approach Wednesday morning.  Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) can be a true pain for short-term modeling to handle, but the overall idea this evening is for the first of (2) complexes to impact parts of the region Wednesday morning.

This is an idea what the radar may look like around 9a.  This would be the same complex that will deal quite the blow to portions of the eastern Plains and upper Mid West tonight (localized damaging straight line winds will be an issue to our NW).  Thankfully, we expect weakening of this complex as it dives off to the SE, in our general direction.

hrrr_ref_indy_16We’ll go through a quiet period during the afternoon hours before a second surge of storms takes aim on the region tomorrow night into Thursday morning (again, understanding we’ll have to “sure up” timing as we go).

hires_ref_indy_40Additional storm complexes will follow Thursday into Friday before that drier air gets here.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

While rainfall amounts won’t be uniform, there’s the potential for some neighborhoods to get 2″-3″ of rain between now and week’s end (where storms train).

cmc_total_precip_indy_17Looking ahead, after a dry weekend and open to next week, indications point towards a return of wet and active times as we approach Day 10.  Long range ensemble data backs up the wet, stormy look nicely, and there’s really no end in sight…

MidJuly

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