Updated 10.10.22 @ 6:01p
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Category: Weather Rambles
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/reason-for-pause-around-late-october/
Oct 03
Something’s Got To Give…
Updated 10.03.22 @ 5:32p
The NEW European Weeklies are in and continue to paint an intriguing picture as we look ahead to November. Remember, we’re of the belief that the pattern may, indeed, get off to a fast start to the winter season (for a change) this year.
At any rate, note the evolution at 500mb continues to up the ante that this idea may be right as we rumble into mid-November.
However, at the surface, the European doesn’t display the type of cooling one would imagine given the upper air pattern look.
My hunch is that we’ll see the trough “tuck in” further west to include a good portion of the central and east as we move forward and zone in on that mid-November time frame. That will likely force the surface temperature anomalies above to cool (significantly so if this idea is correct) for that time period.
It’ll be interesting to see what the update European seasonal product says in a couple of days. We’ll include that in Thursday’s long range update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/somethings-got-to-give/
Sep 20
Dinnertime Rambles: “Times, They Are A Changin…”
Updated 09.20.22 @ 6:33p Despite the fact that we’re looking at near-record heat tomorrow, when you get to late September, you know time is ticking on what can be an…
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Aug 27
Checking In On Those Test Cases…
Updated 08.27.22 @ 7:53a
First and foremost, happy college football season! Sure, this weekend’s games aren’t terribly exciting, but LIVE college football is back and sets the stage for an incredible slate this upcoming weekend! I’m looking forward to being on the Plains of southern Alabama next weekend to celebrate the return of another special Auburn football season!
I will still be posting a Client Video later today, but wanted to dedicate this post to the two test cases in the week ahead:
I. Strength and magnitude of the cooler air to open September
II. Pre Labor Day tropical excitement in the Gulf of Mexico
Let’s start with the cooler potential. The European has trended closer to the GFS solution in recent runs, opening September on a cooler than normal note. The GFS is still more aggressive with the cool down to open up meteorological fall, but the European is trending more and more towards this solution. What’s at stake? A couple of days to open the month with lows into the lower 50s (mid to upper 50s inside the circle, itself) and highs in the upper 70s with that classic autumn sky. Side note: a significantly warmer (hotter) pattern looms thereafter.
Now let’s talk about the tropics. Not much has changed here with the vast differences in handling the lead feature (threat in the Gulf of Mexico as Labor Day weekend nears). This morning, the GFS continues to beat the drum on this potential while the European isn’t excited in the least. We note the European ensemble product isn’t even hinting at the threat of a depression to develop during this period. It’ll be mighty interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. We should gain more clarity early in the work week. I will say, should something form, it appears to be an eventual southern of western Gulf threat from this distance.
Video discussion looking over 12z data and jumping ahead to the next big surge of warmth will be online later today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/checking-in-on-those-test-cases/
Aug 21
Surge Of Warmth To Close Out Meteorological Summer, But What Comes After?
Updated 08.21.22 @ 4:48p
We’ve enjoyed quite the pleasant stretch of temperatures and humidity levels as of late, but there are increasing signs of a return of heat and humidity to close out August. In particular, we target the latter part of the week into early Week 2 for a stretch of 90° (plus?) to make a return visit as an upper ridge builds over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
For the most part, the pattern will also embrace a drier theme. As moisture levels return, isolated to widely scattered coverage of storms will likely return by the weekend, but we don’t envision any organized rain and storms through the upcoming week- after today.
This aligns with the pattern drivers (developing positive EPO and a hyper MJO into Phases 2 and 3). That said, there are growing indications the MJO will remain in an amplified state as we roll into September. If this is indeed the case, it appears as if we’ll move into Phase 4 early September. Certainly not set in stone but this is noteworthy as the correlation delivers an unseasonably cool stretch of temperatures for our area, including into the central Plains.
At times, the GFS can be too “quick” in displaying pattern changes, but should we get into Phase 4, we’ll have to pay attention for the threat of a shot of true early fall temperatures (at least for a couple of days) come early September. We’ll keep a close eye on things…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/surge-of-warmth-to-close-out-meteorological-summer-but-what-comes-after/