Nov 29
Updated 11.29.22 @ 5:48p There’s no change to the timing of embedded storm/ local damaging wind threat this evening as the cold front roars across the state. Some local 50…
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Nov 21
Updated 11.21.22 @ 6:37p
It only took a week to 10 days, but model guidance is FINALLY starting to align on our Thanksgiving storm, and it’s for a more drawn out period of wet, unsettled weather through the Thanksgiving weekend. We still believe clouds will increase through the day on Thanksgiving with light rain moving into central Indiana Thursday evening/ night. The initial surge of moisture should move out of the area early on Black Friday. Early thoughts are for this lead wave to deposit between 0.10″ and 0.25″ for most.
Most, if not all, of our Black Friday and through the daytime Saturday currently looks on the dry side. While we’ll still have considerable cloudiness, the next round of moisture (this of a much heavier variety) is dialed up Saturday evening into Sunday as a surface low moves from the Ark-la-tex region, northeast into the central and eastern Ohio Valley. A 1″ to 2″ soaker appears in order from a standpoint of total rain with this system.
Once the system departs to the northeast, unlike the past couple of events, milder air will take hold to close November and open December. In fact, multiple days with highs into the 60s are a good bet 12/1 through 12/5.
In the face of the warm open to the month, there’s no flinching in our long standing idea of an overall colder/ snowier than normal December, locally. We note the EPO is forecast negative down the road and combine this with what continues to look like a favorable (at least if you’re a winter fan) MJO, the thought here remains squarely on the return of colder, more wintry times after the first few days of the month…
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Nov 17
Updated 11.17.22 @ 8p
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Nov 05
Updated 11.05.22 @ 9:22a
I. Showers will scoot east of the region by late morning but we’re not done with the rain just yet. A skinny line of storms will likely blow across the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.
The other big story today will, of course, be the wind, including wind gusts around of 50-60 MPH. Strongest winds will come between 12p and 5p before diminishing this evening. Needless to say, batten down the hatches!
II. High pressure will supply an extended period of quiet weather through the bulk of the week ahead but there are changes on the horizon.
Our next cold front will blow into town Thursday night or Friday morning. As of now, it looks like it’ll be moisture starved but unlike this current system, the air behind the frontal passage will be drastically colder. How do highs in the lower 40s and lows in the lower 20s sound next weekend?
III. Next week’s front will be a “game changer” in that it will likely be the first attempt at bringing a more sustained colder pattern east. Note the latest European ensemble guidance below for the 10-15 day period. Needless to say, warmth is, indeed, on borrowed time…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-wind-the-big-story-today-warmth-on-borrowed-time/
Oct 22
Updated 10.22.22 @ 7:14a
2. A cold front and associated surface wave of low pressure will spell a period of needed rains around these parts by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Rainfall totals are creeping up on recent model runs (good news as our rainfall deficit continues to grow more than 2”). Perhaps some 1”+ amounts are possible, especially for western areas with the passage of this system.
3. While we will “cool” behind the passage of the front, the airmass isn’t anything to write home about (lows in the lower 40s and highs in the mid-upper 60s).
4. The early call on Halloween reflects a chance of light rain but any storm system of significance appears to remain away from our region as of now. We’ll certainly continue to keep a close eye on things.
If you haven’t had a chance to read our long range outlook from Thursday, we encourage you to do so here. This will shed light on where the pattern is heading as we get into November.
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