Category: Weather Rambles

Oct 03

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

I.) An unseasonably warm pattern will remain as we move into the middle of the week.  A more summer-like feel can be expected as opposed to the increasingly chilly early October air we should be dealing with.  Highs will reach the middle 80s this afternoon along with a gusty SW breeze.

II.) After a windy and warm Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday.  Not everyone will get wet, but a few locally heavy downpours can be expected.

III.) The ridge will “flex its muscle” into early and middle parts of next week and promote an extended (and unusual) stretch of 80s.  Don’t put those shorts away just yet…

IV.) A “game changer” of a cold front will approach late next week with better chances of organized rain and storms followed by a return of more seasonal times…

V.) Ingredients are in place for a significant shift in the pattern around the middle of October and colder times continue to look like they will return as we flip the page into Weeks 2-3.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/03/wednesday-morning-rambles-9/

Sep 14

Florence Brings Devastating Flooding To The Carolinas; Extended Dry & Warm Stretch Here…

Florence made landfall around 7:15 this morning near Wrightsville Beach, NC.  Within the past 30 minutes, a wind gust was reported to 105 MPH in Wilmington, NC.

Florence will crawl through the Carolinas this weekend and spread devastating flooding well inland- 20″ to 30″. Even the high ground of the North Carolina Blue Ridge will experience severe flooding Sunday into Monday- 6″ to 12″.  These are forecast radar totals shown now through 2p Sunday.  The Blue Ridge will see heavy rain continue into Monday evening.

Back here on the home front, expect an extended stretch of dry and warm weather.  Plentiful sunshine can be expected as we head into the weekend along with a warming trend- mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.  High pressure will remain in firm control.

The next item of excitement for our region will be from a cold front late next week.  This will help increase shower and thunderstorm chances along with delivering cooler air next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/14/florence-brings-devastating-flooding-to-the-carolinas-extended-dry-warm-stretch-here/

Sep 06

Long Stretch Of Wet Weather Ahead…

I. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will begin to dissipate this evening and tonight with the loss of daytime heating.  Some area rain gauges have already picked up between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain this afternoon and this will only serve to lay the ground work for further problems moving forward.

II. A growing shield of rain will engulf northern and central parts of the state Friday afternoon.  Initially, this will mostly be of the light to, at times, moderate variety.  Additionally, we’ll notice an increasingly stiff easterly flow as the afternoon and evening wear on.  Temperatures will fall from a high in the middle 70s into the 60s late Friday afternoon and evening.

III. A frontal boundary will remain draped across central parts of the state Saturday while the remnant circulation of what once was Tropical Storm Gordon pushes closer.  As such, rainfall intensity will increase as we move through the day Saturday- particularly by evening into the overnight, on into Sunday morning.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected during this time frame.  Rainfall rates will begin to diminish Sunday PM before moisture exits stage right Sunday evening.

By the time all is said and done, widespread 3″ to 5″ rainfall totals can be expected through the heart of the state, including Indianapolis, but there will be locally heavier totals upwards of 6″ to 7″ in spots.  Flooding, unfortunately, will result.  If you live near water ways please ensure to keep close tabs on water levels and expect rapid rises Saturday into Sunday.  Have a plan in place to escape to higher ground.

IV. After a week of excessive heat and humidity, the coming cooler regime will be welcome by most.  Temperatures most of Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 60s.  At times, “wind chills” (haven’t used that term in a while) will fall into the 50s.

Warmer times will return late next week as ridging re-establishes itself.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/06/long-stretch-of-wet-weather-ahead/

Sep 05

Wednesday Evening Rambles: Cool, Wet, & Blustery Weekend On Deck…

Gordon’s remnant moisture will claim headlines through the weekend.

I.  A cold front will approach Indiana Thursday and result in increased cloudiness AND a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms- especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  Though still warm and humid, temperatures will begin a “step down” process to eventually MUCH cooler readings this weekend.

II.  Unsettled weather will continue Friday into Saturday as the surface front settles south.  As an increasingly blustery easterly flow takes hold across central Indiana, cooler air will continue to “ooze” into the state.  Highs shouldn’t make it out of the 70s Friday with considerable cloudiness and showers around.

III.  Unseasonably cool air will be with us Saturday (most of the afternoon will be spent in the 60s for the majority of central IN, especially north of I-70). A stiff easterly flow and showers will continue.

IV.  The remnant moisture of Gordon will creep closer to the region Saturday PM before setting up shop Saturday night into Sunday evening.  This is the most concerning period for potentially excessive rainfall rates and localized flooding.  We still have time to watch things unfold, but the idea here is that widespread 2″ to 4″ totals are likely with locally heavier totals.  This is “beefed up” from this morning’s call of 2″ to 3″.  Stay tuned, especially if you live near water ways.

V.  Finally, the tropical moisture will surge northeast Sunday night and Monday and a cold front will sweep through the region.  This will set up a much drier and very pleasant period as we open up the new work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/05/wednesday-evening-rambles-cool-wet-blustery-weekend-on-deck/

Jul 31

Summer Feel Returns…

The past (10) days have been particularly pleasant across central Indiana, especially by late-July standards.  80% of the period has featured temperatures at, or below, normal, and the past couple of days have been impressively cool.  Hat tip to Sean Ash (@SeanWTHR) for the most recent stat: “Just the 12th time in 147 years of back-to-back July days in Indianapolis with a high of 72° or below.”  Rainfall has been plentiful across central Indiana, including widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ with some reports of 3″ to 5″ over the past 48 hours.

After a warm open to the month, July has taken on a significantly cooler side as of late: Graphic courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center

As we rumble into August, you knew that summer feel had to return, right?! 🙂

Forecast models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will expand across the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period.  This will deliver a return of warm-to-hot and muggy conditions to central Indiana- beginning this weekend into next week.

GEFS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

EPS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

While the next couple of days will continue the cooler than normal theme, temperatures will return to a “summery” feel over the weekend, continuing into next week.  Along with the warmer air will also come increasing humidity.  In short, we recommend incorporating a pool visit (or two) into your weekend schedule.  Highs will return into the upper 80s to around 90° and overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70°.  While warmer and certainly more humid than we’ve been, we still believe the hottest of the season is behind us (highs of 94° on July 4th and 14th).

Highs will top out a couple degrees either side of 90 this weekend. Graphic courtesy of weathermodels.com

While a more summer-like feel will replace the unseasonably cool close to the month and open to August, it sure looks like the hotter regime will be transitional.  The general consensus from data points towards a return of seasonable to below average temperatures along with a continuation of active times as mid-month approaches…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/31/summer-feel-returns/

Jul 26

Thursday Evening Video Update: “Hint” Of Fall On The Doorstep; Widespread Soaker Early Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/26/thursday-evening-video-update-hint-of-fall-on-the-doorstep-widespread-soaker-early-next-week/

Jul 24

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17

Days 18-25

Days 25-32

Days 32-39

Days 38-45

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/24/tuesday-morning-rambles-drier-air-before-our-next-front/

Jul 21

Saturday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Weekend And Looking Ahead…

It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday.  Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state.  Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain.  When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana.  Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!

As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure.  As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain.  Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday.  With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.

Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.

As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region.  We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.

Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week.  The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend.  Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat.  A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.

On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.

Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/21/saturday-morning-rambles-unsettled-weekend-and-looking-ahead/

Jul 14

Looking At The Week Ahead: Changes Begin…

Our Saturday morning is dawning with pleasant conditions- filtered sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 60s for most.  We’ll notice a couple of items today: 1.) increasing humidity as the day progresses and 2.) increasing storm chances later this evening.  While most of the daytime hours should remain dry across central Indiana, that begins to change tonight.  A cold front lies off to our northwest this morning and this front will slowly push southeast between now and Monday, passing the region Monday evening.  Until the front passes, a more unsettled pattern can be expected.  While it won’t storm the entire time over the next (3) days, a couple of rounds of hefty shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected.  With a tropical air mass in place (PWATs flirting with 2″), locally heavy rain will accompany the storms.

The big story through the daytime today will be the heat.  Most central Indiana neighborhoods will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices approaching 105° at times.  Take the heat seriously this afternoon and evening and ensure you have means to take frequent breaks if planning any time outdoors.

We’ll notice thunderstorms becoming more numerous for our friends in Illinois through the afternoon and evening, but central Indiana should remain mostly dry until tonight.  Forecast radar products want to bring these storms into the state after the 7p to 8p time frame.  We’ll keep close tabs on radar trends this afternoon.

(Again, with high moisture content, any thunderstorm that passes through your neighborhood will be capable of producing torrential rainfall).  For that matter, the same story can be said with storms that develop Sunday and Monday, as precipitable water values will remain around 2″ until the front sweeps through the state.

A “juicy” air mass will help fuel locally heavy rain through early week.

Finally, the aforementioned cold front will sweep the state Monday evening.  This will put an end to rain chances through midweek and allow for a refreshing air mass to blow into the region.  How do highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s sound with low humidity?  Overnight lows will be allowed to fall into the 50s during this time frame.

Overall, dry conditions should prevail until late next weekend when a secondary, even stronger, front will make a run at the region.  We’ll ramp storm chances back up ahead of this expected front and the air mass behind the boundary in the Week 2 time period will be even cooler than we we’ll enjoy the middle part of the upcoming week.

Speaking of cool, the pattern continues to look vastly different as we put a wrap on the month than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past couple of weeks.  Note the dominant trough the models show setting up shop over the Mid West…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/14/looking-at-the-week-ahead-changes-begin/

Jul 11

Wednesday Evening Rambles…

I. High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we wrap up the work week providing dry conditions. Expect another day of low humidity Thursday before a tropical air mass returns.

II. Heat and humidity will return to oppressive levels this weekend. Highs will top out in the lower 90s Friday and will be the start of a few days of highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower 70s through the weekend. Heat indices will go north of 100° at times this weekend.

III. A more unsettled regime will develop as we rumble into Sunday and Monday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. As cooler air begins to fight into the heat and humidity, a few heavy storms and locally heavy rain will result early next week before the front passes Tuesday. Widespread 0.50″ to 1″ rainfall should be expected during this time with localized heavier totals.

IV. A secondary cold front will approach the following weekend with another push of more significant cool air, along with widespread rain and storm chances.

As a whole, the last 10 days, or so, of the month look to run cooler than average and the transition to cool will come with beneficial rainfall…

V. Looking even longer term, we continue to believe that after this weekend the worst of the summer heat will be behind us. That’s not to say additional hot days won’t resurface at times in August (it is August, after all), but the pattern, as a whole, doesn’t seem to support the duration of significant heat that the first half of July has offered.

Attention here is squarely on what the upcoming fall and winter will deal central Indiana…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/11/wednesday-evening-rambles-3/

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