Category: Weather Rambles

Jul 30

Sunday Morning Rambles: Much Less Humid Start To The Week; Updated Thoughts On The August Pattern…

Updated 07.30.23 @ 11:25a

I. We can already feel a difference in the nature of the airmass this morning, but there’s a much bigger push of dry air inbound tonight. By Monday morning, dew points across central Indiana will fall into the 40s and 50s- a far cry from the oppressive “jungle-like” dew points from last week. Talk about a breath of fresh air. The good news in this pleasant airmass will hold through the middle of the week.

A refreshing air mass will filter into the state tonight.

II. While we can’t totally rule out a shower this afternoon, most of the period will remain rain-free between now and Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine through this period as well.

Rain and storm chances will return towards the latter part of the week. While we’re not expecting any sort of washout, it’ll be a good idea to have a Plan B in mind from Thursday through the weekend in the event a storm cluster threatens from time to time.

III. Over the next couple weeks, the primary pattern drivers continue to look like a combo of the EPO and PNA- both of which will, for the most part, be in favorable phases to deliver seasonal to slightly cooler than normal conditions across our neck of the woods. At times, it’s appeared like the MJO will start to amplify, but that hasn’t been the case and doesn’t appear to be a big player in our pattern through mid August, at least. Bottom line, our idea is that August features seasonal temperatures, as a whole, with slightly above normal rainfall throughout central Indiana. (For perspective, the average high at IND in August is 84.3° with an average low of 65°. On average, we pick up nearly 3.5″ of rain during any given August).

The most anomalous and long-lasting heat should continue to be featured across Plains and points west with coolest anomalies across the Northeast.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-much-less-humid-start-to-the-week-updated-thoughts-on-the-august-pattern/

Jul 25

Severe Threat Wednesday; What The Pattern Drivers Have To Say About Longevity Of Building Heat…

Updated 07.25.23 @ 5:13a

We’re running slightly cooler than normal, month-to-date, across central Indiana. (0.5° below normal at IND). Above normal temperatures have ruled the day along the coasts with the cooler anomalies in the Plains and into the western portions of the Ohio Valley.

A big flip in this regime will take place as we push through the upcoming work week. Note the expanding heat in areas where it’s been cool so far this month.

As the hot dome nudges east, central Indiana will make up for lost ground in the 90° department. In fact, the hottest and most humid air of the season will take up shop mid and late week. Low-mid 90s with overnight lows not falling below the oppressive 70° mark can be expected.

That said, we remain stubborn in believing this will be a transitional heat wave. The EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North America pattern) are both heading in directions that should force the ridge (hot dome) west in the Week 2 time period. This will open the door for cooler and more active weather to return, locally. We’ll likely have to deal with multiple strong-severe storm complexes tracking in northwest to southeast fashion into early August. Speaking of severe weather, all of the region is under fire for a couple rounds of storms Wednesday. Morning convection will likely remain below severe levels but a potent complex of storms is expected to redevelop Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the ingredients and severe weather parameters in play Wednesday, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential of a couple strong tornadoes. Needless to say, it’ll be a day to remain weather-aware.

In closing, when looking at the long range pattern, the wild card has to do with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). Should this become more amplified, then the shift in the regime will be more dramatic. As it is, we’re far from ready to make a call on this becoming more amplified (a bigger driver in the pattern transition). The thought this could be heading into Phase 6 is less of a likely situation now compared to a few days ago, but we’ll continue to closely monitor the progression all the same. The combination of the EPO/ PNA trends will serve as the baseline in building our longer range forecast for now.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/what-the-pattern-drivers-have-to-say-about-longevity-of-building-heat/

Jul 16

Sunday Morning Rambles: Another Round Of Strong Storms And Lack Of Significant Heat Grab Headlines…

Updated 07.16.23 @ 7:44a

I. More of that good ole Canadian wild fire smoke is making for a hazy start to our day but thankfully all else is quiet. Unfortunately that won’t remain the case as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours. We’ll watch for darkening skies towards the mid to late afternoon and some potent storms will likely fire up by evening. A couple of these could pulse to severe levels and include a damaging wind and hail threat.

II. A cold front will take aim on the region from the northwest as we kick off the new work week. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this boundary Monday afternoon and evening. Like this evening, a few of the storms will likely turn strong to severe (damaging wind and large hail the greatest concerns with the stronger cells).

III. The cold front will push south of our region Tuesday morning before stalling along the Ohio River. Rain and storm chances should shift downstate Tuesday as a drier brand of air takes hold for the northern half of the state. Dew points into the 50s are always nice in July, heh?!

IV. A secondary front will blow through the state as we wrap up the work week and help to reinforce the unseasonably refreshing airmass going into next weekend. Lows will likely even dip into the 50s at night.

That brings us to our closing point and that’s the lack of any sort of significant heat. In fact, it’s just the opposite over the next couple weeks. The general thinking is the cooler than normal regime will likely make up the bulk of August as well, especially if we can sneak into Phase 5-6 of the MJO.

Day 1-5 temperature anomalies
Days 5-10 temperature anomalies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-another-round-of-strong-storms-and-lack-of-significant-heat-grab-headlines/

Jun 20

VIDEO: Diving Into The Pattern Evolution Over The Course Of The Next Couple Weeks…

Updated 06.20.23 @ 8:45p

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-diving-into-the-pattern-evolution-over-the-course-of-the-next-couple-weeks/

Jun 20

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

Updated 06.20.23 @ 5:30a

I. It’s been a cool June so far compared to normal. Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 3° below normal month to date.

Locally, there’s still no sign of any sort of significant heat on the horizon in this kind of pattern.

Needless to say, the lack of heat this time of year given how dry it’s been is a true blessing (otherwise the feedback would absolutely be kicking into high gear by now). Thankfully, it continues to look like we’ll avoid any sort of sustained hot wx compared to normal while also seeing the pattern transition towards a more active state.

II. Heaviest rains Monday fell across southern and southeastern Indiana, including amounts in excess of 1”.

Additional showers will pinwheel into central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Indianapolis and more of immediate central Indiana stand a better shot of getting some beneficial rain today when compared to Monday. Fingers crossed.

III. Additional opportunities of scattered to numerous showers and storms will occur Friday and Sunday.

Fresh Client video will be posted later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-6/