Category: Weather Rambles

Aug 30

Widely Scattered Light Showers Through Labor Day Weekend; Tracking A Strong Cold Front Late Next Week…

A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.

Dew points will fall into the 50s tonight into Saturday morning across the northern half of the state.

Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.

We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.

Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.

The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.

Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).

The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.

Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…

Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.

Enjoy your Friday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/widely-scattered-light-showers-through-labor-day-weekend-tracking-a-strong-cold-front-late-next-week/

Aug 25

Sunday Morning Rambles…

I. The dry air we’ve enjoyed the past couple of days will be replaced with an increasingly moist air mass to open the work week.

II. With that will come an increase in cloud cover later today and the possibility of a couple of showers. Better coverage of showers and embedded thunder will return Monday into Tuesday.

Rainfall amounts of 0.25” to 0.75” can be expected during this time period with some neighborhoods accumulating close to an inch.

III. A cold front will sweep across the Ohio Valley for midweek leading to a return of dry and unseasonably cool conditions. This will be followed by a second frontal passage Labor Day weekend that will serve to reinforce the cooler than normal air.

Will have a more detailed post, including longer range thoughts later this evening, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/25/sunday-morning-rambles-5/

Aug 07

Severe Potential East Thursday; Great Weekend On Deck, And Looking Ahead To Next Week…

Needed moisture missed much of immediate central Indiana Tuesday. Areas south of the city picked up some locally heavy downpours, but the early morning diminishing convection to our northwest helped stabilize things just enough to prevent storms from redeveloping locally.

There will be another opportunity for getting some needed rain Thursday, but we caution coverage, yet again, will likely be of the “hit and miss” variety. Given some of the ingredients, a couple of severe cells will be possible ahead of the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon. Best chances of being impacted by a storm Thursday will be across east-central Indiana as a line of storms across Ohio “tails back” into Indiana. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does include this part of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.

Primary concerns for any stronger thunderstorm that develops will be large hail and straight line winds.

As we look ahead to the weekend, sprawling high pressure is still expected to move overhead and produce plentiful sunshine, low humidity (you’ll notice a big drop in moisture levels Thursday afternoon to Friday morning), and very pleasant temperatures.

Our next chance of rain and storms will arrive Monday into Tuesday.

More a bit later with the issuance of our Wednesday evening video update! Enjoy your Wednesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/07/severe-potential-east-thursday-great-weekend-on-deck-and-looking-ahead-to-next-week/

Aug 01

VIDEO: Quiet Open To August Turns More Active Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/01/video-quiet-open-to-august-turns-more-active-next-week/

Jul 30

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Tropics Turn More Active And More On The Cool 1st Half Of August…

I. Indianapolis officially register 0.68″ in the rain gauge Monday, however, there were many neighborhoods that reported over 1″ of rain. A snapshot of radar estimates below show between 1″ and 1.5″ of rain from places such as Crawfordsville up through Frankfort and towards Fort Wayne, along with areas in and around Connersville and Richmond. After a dry stretch, this rain sure was welcome!

II. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast today- especially across southeast portions of the state. From Indianapolis and points north, we’ll begin to really notice the drier air that will take hold later this evening.

Dew points will fall into the 50s and lower 60s across the northern half of the state by evening.

III. An extended stretch of dry, pleasant late summer weather is expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend, thanks to high pressure.

IV. The tropics will begin to turn more active over the upcoming 10 days. I think it’s the “follower” that we’ll need to pay close attention to as we get to the weekend and on into next week. Given the steering current, should this system develop, we’d likely be talking about a tropical storm sitting off the eastern FL or southeast coast early to middle next week.

V. Our August Outlook was posted last night and features an overall cooler than average month, locally. After a quiet week this week, a series of cold fronts will begin to impact our neck of the woods next week. Each front will deliver showers and embedded thunder along with unseasonably cool, pleasant air by early-August standards. More on the specifics here once we get closer!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/30/tuesday-morning-rambles-tropics-turn-more-active-and-more-on-the-cool-1st-half-of-august/

Jul 09

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Potential Tropical Impacts Down The Road And Renewed Heatwave Claim Headlines…

I. Another quiet, pleasant mid-summer day is on tap thanks to high pressure. Though very warm, humidity will remain low today. We should add another 90 degree day to the books later this afternoon.

II. A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and we expect a couple of lines of thunderstorms to move across central Indiana during the day. The first line will likely be in a weakening state as it approaches central Indiana around lunchtime tomorrow, however, we expect a second line of showers and t-storms to move through the heart of the state tomorrow evening.

The Storm Prediction Center includes northwest IN in a ‘Slight’ risk of severe weather Wednesday.

III. While dry conditions (and cooler temperatures) will return here for late week and into the first half of the weekend, all eyes by this time will be centered on soon-to-be Barry. Conditions still seem favorable (sea surface temperatures and upper level wind environment) for a disturbance currently over SW GA to strengthen into a named tropical system over the northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours.

While confidence remains low concerning potential inland impacts from the eventual remnants of Barry (always the case with tropical systems), there seems to be an opportunity for two paths as of now.

“Path A” would essentially be a scenario where Barry gets trapped under an upper level ridge to the north, resulting in raining himself out over Texas next week. “Path B” would curl Barry north and northeast into the OHV, spreading a swath of heavy tropical rains well inland. Stay tuned.

IV. The other headliner will be a return of significant heat next week. While Barry may (or may not) have a say in cooling us down late next week, there will be a renewed stretch of 90 degree warmth that develops Sunday into at least the middle of next week. Longer range data continues to trend hotter and we’ll have a look at the updated European Weeklies later today or Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/09/tuesday-morning-rambles-potential-tropical-impacts-down-the-road-and-renewed-heatwave-claim-headlines/

May 21

VIDEO: Tuesday Evening Rambles…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/21/video-tuesday-evening-rambles/

May 13

“Transition” Is The Name Of The Game…

As we look ahead to late-May and early June, “transition” is the word that comes to mind when describing the overall weather pattern.

We’re going to begin pulling out of this unseasonably chilly pattern late-week and we’ll replace it with a true summer-like regime. Note the differences at 500mb between now and this weekend:

Not only will the 80s return, but oppressive dew points can be expected as well by Friday (65-70 degrees). The sweat factor will be back in full effect!

With that said, there’s reason for concern that the flip to summer may not last.

Not only do we continue to see high-latitude blocking in place, but the MJO is showing signs of rotating into Phase 1 as we inch closer to early-June. That Phase 1 this time of year is a cool one for the eastern portion of the country. Note the tendency for eastern troughiness illustrated in Image 2 below.

Perhaps ensemble data is seeing this cooler transition in the pattern on today’s 12z run:

Bottom line, confidence is high on a summer-like flip as we welcome in the weekend, continuing into early parts of Week 2, but we don’t think it’s a “stick and hold” variety of warmth. There’s growing reason to believe a flip back to cooler conditions looms before we close out the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/13/transition-is-the-name-of-the-game/

May 07

Tuesday Afternoon Rambles: Weekend Model Differences; What’s Beyond The Cooler Mid-May Shift?

I. A couple widely scattered light showers have flared up this afternoon, but most central Indiana neighborhoods have enjoyed dry conditions with sunshine and temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Look for more of the same Wednesday, including filtered sunshine through a good chunk of the day. Warm Air Advection (WAA) will help boost temperatures into the lower 80s for most of the immediate area.

II. Better aerial coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday night into Thursday night. We believe 3 rounds of showers and storms are possible during this time frame (at least impacting portions of the central Indiana viewing area):

  • Late Wednesday night into the predawn Thursday
  • Thursday afternoon
  • Thursday evening as the cold front sweeps through the state

III. High pressure will build into the region as we close the week. This will lead to improving weather conditions, including increasing sunshine. A very nice close to the work week/ open to the weekend is dialed up! Make those patio plans now!

IV. Modeling differs on the handling of our weekend weather feature(s). The GFS (image 1) maintains the idea of a dry Saturday, followed by showers Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Moisture would be limited with such a solution. The European (image 2), however, is more bullish on a more widespread rain event arriving Saturday PM into Sunday AM. Stay tuned as we work to reach some sort of agreement between the data.

V. After a cooler than normal period of weather through the middle of the month, we’re thinking the coolest anomalies will pull back into the intermountain west and 4-Corners region. Do we foresee any major late-May heat? No, but we should moderate against the norms during the last week to 10 days of the month.

After a drier stretch of weather through the mid-May period, precipitation should return to at least average levels through the late month stretch. Early indications would then suggest wetter than normal times return as we get set to open June…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/07/tuesday-afternoon-rambles-weekend-model-differences-whats-beyond-the-cooler-mid-may-shift/

Apr 04

Pattern Returns To An Active Time Of Things…

One word to describe the mid-April weather pattern? ACTIVE. Tonight’s medium and long range video update dives in further…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/04/pattern-returns-to-an-active-time-of-things/

IndyWx.com