Category: Weather Rambles

Dec 12

Latest Thoughts On Early Next Week; Long Range Update Into Early Jan…

Through the 11th, December is running 1.6° above normal in Indianapolis. This milder than normal theme is rather widespread so far this month through the Lower 48.

As we look ahead, there are continued reasons to believe the pattern will begin to go through more of a transition towards an ultimately more sustained cold pattern as January evolves. We think that transition really started early this week and will feature plenty of “back and forth” over the the next 2-3 weeks before settling into the more sustained cold regime. There will be storms and “rumors of storms” that we’ll have to track through the transitional period, including smack-dab in the heart of the holiday season this year.

The latest JMA Weeklies (update each Thursday morning) shows this “fight” over the next 1-3 weeks.

JMA Weeklies Day 3-9 shows the cold returning to our portion of the country.
The pattern warms significantly across the Plains in the 10-16 day time frame and some of this milder air will try and eject east into the Ohio Valley.

Without blocking in place, the way the JMA Weeklies handle the pattern is likely, but the Weeks 2-3 time period does have a chance to offer up a headache or two as the models may begin to adjust to an increasingly “blocky” time of things.

There are at least “hints” that some of the teleconnections that would promote more of a blocky pattern are beginning to align. We caution though that this does take time for these feature to mature and begin to ultimately have a greater impact on our pattern.

The latest GEFS insists on a developing negative EPO in the medium to longer range. We know this favors eastern cold. Eventually, this should, indeed, take place, especially due to the northeast Pacific SST configuration and help drive more long-lasting cold, locally.
Interestingly, the GEFS also depicts a developing negative NAO mid and late December. This can help result in more sustained cold across our portion of the country into the northeast.

As we revisit the latest SST configuration, there’s continued reason to be very excited about this winter if you’re a fan of colder and snowier than normal conditions. We always knew December would be the tough month before the pattern settles into the mean winter pattern late December into March. Now, time to just sit back and watch things unfold. 🙂

Now, back to the short-term. Despite forecast models very much still in (2) separate worlds, we’ve dug into analogs and looked through countless similar patterns from the past. As model consensus develops (hopefully sooner rather than later), let’s see if they (speaking specifically to the GFS and European) converge on this similar solution for best chances of accumulating snow:

We still have many details to sort through and we caution that this system is far from being etched in stone. You’ll want to keep close tabs on latest developments over the next couple of days. With that said, we’re looking for potential wintry impacts here across central Indiana beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday.

This evening’s video update will focus solely on the Sunday-Monday system, including the latest model developments from 12z. Have a great Thursday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/12/latest-thoughts-on-early-next-week-long-range-update-into-early-jan/

Nov 23

VIDEO: Thanksgiving Week Keeps Us Busy…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/23/video-thanksgiving-week-keeps-us-busy/

Nov 19

Evening Update On Thursday Rain; Weekend Mischief…

Quick update this evening just to touch base on the afternoon/ evening model data.

We’re still anticipating a dry Wednesday, but caution that conditions will be ripe overnight to result in areas of dense fog Wednesday morning. It’ll be wise to allow extra time to work and school in the morning just to be safe.

As we look ahead, rain will return to the region Thursday as an area of low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes region. This will drag a cold front through our region Thursday night into Friday morning. Looking at the most updated high resolution data suggests the steadiest rain will arrive around or just after lunchtime Thursday.

With that said, rainfall amounts aren’t anticipated to be significant. Most will be between 0.10” and 0.25” with a few heavier totals.

After a quiet Friday, moisture will overspread the region once again this weekend. This is the “follower” system modeling has struggled with over the past week. We were confident this would be a local player due to the overall upper level pattern, despite the inconsistent modeling. Sure enough, the consensus of modeling this evening brings in another system in the Saturday-Sunday time frame. With marginally cold air, this isn’t expected to be a widespread winter weather maker, but we continue to closely monitor the potential of localized “more meaningful” wintry precipitation across portions of the central and northern Ohio Valley. Note the wide range of possibilities individual GFS ensemble members print off:

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on things the next couple days and have a fresh update posted early tomorrow morning reviewing the latest overnight data. Specifics should become much more clear with regard to the weekend system once we get to Thursday…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/19/evening-update-on-thursday-rain-weekend-mischief/

Nov 12

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Record Cold Indeed…

I. Number-Busting Cold: The western half of central Indiana is experiencing downright frigid conditions this morning. Skies that cleared out and combined with the fresh snow pack, along with strong cold air advection overnight now find themselves in the middle single digits! Officially at IND, the low temperature of 9° (as of the 7a hour) sets a record not only for the day, but is the earliest in the fall season that the temperature has fallen into the single digits.

II. Cold Remains: For some perspective on the current cold, average temperatures this time of year include lows in the upper 30s and highs in the middle 50s. Safe to say we won’t be anywhere near those numbers over the next 6-7 days. Even after we pull out of the arctic intrusion over the next couple of days, temperatures will remain well below average through the weekend.

III. Fast Moving Clipper: We’ll keep close tabs on a fast moving clipper system Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but as of now, only expect scattered light snow showers across north-central Indiana Thursday morning with this system (no accumulation anticipated). After this system, we’re talking about a rather dry forecast into early next week. The next chance of precipitation (light rain) would come Monday, but the key word here is “light.”

IV. Looking Ahead: We’ll have a more extensive long range update later this evening. One of the items of interest is the way modeling handles the MJO propagation. While the European isn’t nearly as amplified, the American modeling wants to take the MJO into Phase 2 towards Thanksgiving. Phase 2 this time of year would argue for widespread colder than normal conditions. Again, much more on the long range pattern a bit later.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/12/tuesday-morning-rambles-record-cold-indeed/

Oct 29

Tuesday Morning Rambles: A Lot To Talk About…

I. A cold front will slip through central Indiana this evening. After a high near 60 today, temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the day tomorrow. To add insult to injury, rain will overspread the state from the southwest late tonight into Wednesday morning.

There will be brief lull in the rain Wednesday evening before rain becomes widespread yet again early Halloween morning. All total, many central Indiana rain gauges can anticipate around 1″ of rainfall with this storm system.

II. Speaking of Halloween, it’ll be important to dress warmly when out and about trick-or-treating Thursday evening. Falling temperatures, increasingly gusty winds, and snow flurries/ scattered snow showers can be expected. How cold? Temperatures will be falling into the lower 30s Thursday evening with a gusty wind (around 30 MPH) resulting in wind chills in the upper 10s to middle 20s.

Precipitation will transition to light snow showers/ flurries Thursday PM.
Wind chills will fall into the upper 10s to middle 20s Thursday PM.

III. The first lake effect snow event of the fall will take place this weekend. Accumulating snow is expected in the snow belt regions- especially Saturday night. Otherwise, the first official freeze of the season can be expected for many across the Ohio Valley this weekend.

IV. Longer term, I’d get used to the cold, more wintry weather. The pattern continues to look much colder than average and active as we rumble through the early part of the month. (In case you didn’t see it last night, our November Outlook can be found here).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/29/tuesday-morning-rambles-a-lot-to-talk-about/

Oct 23

VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/

Oct 18

Friday Morning Rambles…

I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.

South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.

II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.

The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.

The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.

The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.

Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…

III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/18/friday-morning-rambles-5/

Oct 05

Saturday Morning Rambles…

I. Our Saturday will get off to a stunning start. Despite some patchy fog here and there, look for plentiful sunshine and chilly temperatures in the low-mid 40s rising into the low-mid 70s for afternoon highs with increasing clouds.

II. Those increasing clouds will deliver showers by tonight across central Indiana and then more concentrated heavier rain downstate Sunday evening into the predawn Monday. Southern Indiana is needing a good soaking in a bad way and this system will at least help things slowly begin to improve…

Forecast radar 11p Saturday.
Forecast radar 9a Sunday.

Rainfall totals with this system across central Indiana should accumulate to the tune of 0.20 to 0.40 for most with heavier amounts approaching 1” across the IN-KY border.

Note this is where things are driest across the state per Thursday’s drought update.

III. Our next storm system will swing through here late in the work week. We’re timing Thursday PM into early Friday for a round of showers and potentially gusty thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through.

Behind this boundary, the coldest air of the fall so far will blow into town. We’re continuing to think many of the area can expect the first frost of the season next weekend.

IV. As we look ahead, it’s time to start putting more stock into other tools in the box. Case in point, the MJO is showing signs of less amplitude over the upcoming couple weeks followed by a strongly positive PNA. This supports colder signals in the period. We’ll dig in further in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/05/saturday-morning-rambles-10/

Sep 12

Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…

A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.

A couple of storms may fire up ahead of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but widespread rain isn’t expected.
We’ll notice a wind shift from the southwest to west behind the frontal boundary Friday evening.

While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.

As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.

Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…

That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.

As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/12/thursday-morning-rambles-warmth-continues-to-dominate-over-the-next-10-days/

Sep 03

Pulling The Curtain Back On The Medium Range Pattern…

A cold front will sink south across the state this evening. As the front moves through the area, we expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity across northern Indiana over the next few hours. These storms should push off to the south during the overnight, weakening as they do so. We still aren’t expecting much in the way of widespread severe weather across immediate central Indiana.

Once the front passes, northwest winds will take over during the predawn hours and help push a drier and cooler brand of air south into the region.

The cold front will move through central Indiana during the overnight hours.

Thereafter, get used to unseasonably cool air, to the tune of what we’d normally expect by late September, for the 2nd half of the week- including this weekend. Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through the period.

As we look ahead to next week, moderating temperatures are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday, including lower to middle 80s. That said, we do have questions if the warmth will have staying power.

We note the MJO “toying around” with the warmer Phase 6 for a time before returning to Phase 5 (a cooler phase this time of year).

Add in the fact that the EPS and GEFS are in disagreement in handling the EPO in the medium term and this results in lower confidence in the overall staying power of the warmth come mid month.

Unfortunately, this time of year, the tools we can really “lean on” for indications of where the longer range pattern will head are limited (compared to late fall through early spring). That’s when we can really focus on the other drivers such as the AO, NAO, PNA, recurving WPAC tropical activity, etc.

As such, while we continue to believe the pattern trends warmer after the cool spell into the weekend, patience is required with respect to the staying power of said warmth…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/03/pulling-the-curtain-back-on-the-medium-range-pattern/

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