Category: Weather Rambles

Sep 17

A Quiet Week With A Warming Trend; More Active Week 2?

Updated 09.17.23 @ 9:14a

Just enough energy will be around today to keep scattered, mainly light, showers in the mix into the evening hours. Most area rain gauges won’t collect significant rain but a few thunderstorms could drop a quick downpour in isolated fashion later this afternoon into the early evening.

A secondary disturbance will approach from the northwest Tuesday and provide another opportunity for a few showers, primarily northwest of the city. Most of these should dissipate before moving into central Indiana. All in all, we’re looking at a very quiet week with a significant warming trend.

A calm, mostly dry week is in store for the region.
Temperatures will return to well above normal levels this week.

Highs will run into the middle to upper 80s by the mid and latter part of the week with dry conditions.

Uneventful weather will carry the day through the weekend. While we’re watching a more significant storm system approaching early in Week 2, modeling differs on the specific handling. The European drives most of the energy well south of our neck of the woods and paints a continuation of our dry stretch. The GFS (shown below) is more excited about delivering rain early next week. We’ll watch how trends continue to evolve through the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-quiet-week-with-a-warming-trend-more-active-week-2/

Sep 16

Saturday Morning Rambles: Warm Close To September And An October Look Ahead…

Updated 09.16.23 8:16a

The pattern transition from the current cooler than normal regime to a warm September finish, compared to the norm, will get started the middle of next week. We still have several days to go with highs of 82°+ to close out the month. The pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal. The exception to that general rule will come Sunday with scattered showers (the system that generates Sunday showers here will serve to ignite an early season ‘Nor Easter early week for the Mid Atlantic and New England. – A sign of the changing seasons) and we’re still tracking the threat of a more organized storm system in the early Week 2 period. The trend, however, has been for this being less of a player in our weather compared to a few days ago but we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

The pattern will transition warmer than normal for the 2nd half of the month.

As we flip the page into October, the pattern drivers from this distance appear to be lining up to drive a period of cooler air as we rumble through the first 1/3 of the month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to push into Phase 6. This typically favors the warmer anomalies across the west and Plains with at least a reflection of a trough across the East Coast.

The Pacific North America pattern (PNA) and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) are working in tandem to also favor a cooler regime across our portion of the country. It’s fair to say that we believe the longer range warm “look” will be forced to cool over the course of the next couple weeks for early October.

The dry, relatively boring regime should begin to turn more active as we close out the month and move into October. The thinking here is that we should see a resurgent wet regime the deeper into fall we go before rolling into the drier than normal predominant winter pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-warm-close-to-september-and-an-october-look-ahead/

Aug 25

Friday Morning Rambles: Taste Of Fall Next Week…

Updated 08.25.23 @ 5:02a

I. It’s about as oppressive as it gets around these parts out the door early this morning. Temperatures will only fall a couple more degrees between now and sunrise before another dangerously hot day ahead. Check out these temperature and heat indices at 4:45a:

II. We’re tracking (2) frontal boundaries that will put an end to this heat and humidity in the coming days. The first front slips through here Saturday and will break the heat wave with a secondary, more robust, push of dry, cool air early next week. While a shower or storm is possible with both FROPAs, widespread rain isn’t expected with either.

III. A taste of fall is on deck as we move through the middle of next week and get set to kick off the Labor Day weekend. How does overnight lows into the 40s sound with highs in the upper 70s? This breath of fresh air will hold into the early part of the Labor Day weekend along with anticipated dry conditions.

IV. We’re not expecting the cool, refreshing air to last as “endless summer” returns shortly after the open to September. In fact, we continue to believe a warmer than normal and drier than average September awaits as we push through the initial month of meteorological fall. The latest European Weeklies, updated last night, for September say the same:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-taste-of-fall-next-week/

Aug 14

Monday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Open To The Work Week Gives Way To Pleasant Midweek Airmass…

Updated 08.14.23 @ 5a

I. We’re tracking (2) cold fronts this week. The first will cross Indiana later this evening. Showers this morning will be most numerous across the southern half of the state and through east-central Indiana.

A new round of scattered storms, some of which will produce vivid lightning and gusty winds, along with locally heavy rain, will fire up ahead of the boundary, itself, later this afternoon and evening.

A few light showers will linger Tuesday before a much drier airmass takes hold. Cooler air will filter into the state Tuesday along with a gusty breeze at times.

II. Speaking of drier air, how’s dew points into the 40s sound by Wednesday morning?! Are you kidding me? Not bad at all by mid August standards…

A few folks outside of the city, especially across north-central IN might even fall into the 40s to start the day Wednesday. A hint of fall, indeed…

III. The next in our series of cold fronts has it’s eyes set on our region Thursday evening. After a nice start to the day, we’ll need to watch for the potential of strong to severe storms firing up by Thursday evening ahead of the boundary. We’ll closely monitor this threat over the next couple of days and provide future updates.

As of now, it looks like dry weather will return to close the work week, including right into early parts of next week. Unseasonably cool and refreshing temperatures will give way to a warming trend Week 2…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-rambles-unsettled-open-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-pleasant-midweek-airmass/

Aug 03

Active Times Return…

Updated 08.03.23 @ 7:07a

Heavy rain and localized flooding impacted far southwestern Indiana overnight and this morning. With that said, all will remain quiet on the home front today.

The quiet times will begin to change as we flip the page into the weekend. Scattered storms will fire up Friday afternoon and evening and this will set the tone for a more unsettled regime as we move through the upcoming 6-10 days as a whole (noted by image 2 below).

After dealing with scattered storms Friday afternoon, we anticipate a more widespread rain and storm complex to roll into central Indiana Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

This will likely be followed up with another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms Sunday evening into Monday morning.

The active times won’t stop there as additional heavy rain and storms will rumble across the Ohio Valley and central Indiana into the middle and latter part of next week.

This unsettled and wet theme is all part of the overall pattern expected to carry us through the bulk of the last month of meteorological summer. Certainly a far cry from the dry, hot Augusts of years past.

More later tonight or Friday morning around the long range pattern, including updated thoughts on meteorological fall.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-times-return/