Updated 07.06.22 @ 5:05p
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Category: Weather Rambles
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/06/video-looking-at-the-2nd-half-of-the-week-and-into-week-2/
Jul 04
Happy Independence Day; Opportunity For Multiple Strong Storm Clusters This Week…
Updated 07.04.22 @ 8a 1.) Happy Independence Day! We should squeeze in one more dry day. It’ll be hot with highs surging into the lower 90s. We’ll also notice an…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/04/happy-independence-day-opportunity-for-multiple-strong-storm-clusters-this-week/
Jun 05
Sunday Afternoon Rambles…
Updated 06.05.22 @ 4p 1.) Our pleasant weekend will give way to an unsettled open to the work week as the first in a series of storm systems blows into…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/06/05/sunday-afternoon-rambles-4/
May 18
Wednesday Morning Rambles…
Updated 05.18.22 @ 7:30a
I. Unsettled weather will continue much of the day before exiting off to the east around the evening rush hour. Some embedded stronger storms are possible across southern Indiana (where the SPC also includes in a Slight Risk of severe weather). Otherwise, we’re generally looking at rainfall amounts less than half an inch north of the city and between 0.5” and 1” south of the city.
II. Thursday and Friday (for most of the region) will be dry. Heat and humidity will be the big story as southwesterly winds tap into the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approaching weekend front. The exception to this may be across northwestern portions of the area where a few severe storms are possible late in the day on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include this area in a Slight Risk (damaging winds are the biggest concern).
III. Greatest coverage of showers and storms should arrive here Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While a few strong storms are possible, due to the timing in the day, most of these should remain below severe levels.
IV. Cool, refreshing air will settle overhead to close the weekend and by Monday morning we’ll be talking about widespread low-mid 40s. That sure will feel mighty nice after feels like temperatures climb into the 90s Friday.
V. While next week will open on a nice note, wet and active times will return by midweek and signal what very well looks like a wet close to the month of May.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/18/wednesday-morning-rambles-11/
May 17
Strong Front This Weekend Delivers Surge Of Heat, Storms, Then Blast Of Unseasonably Cool Air…
Updated 05.17.22 @ 7:26a
While we’ll have to deal with showers and storms Wednesday (could have a couple strong cells across southern Indiana), the big deal of the short-term forecast package centers on a strong cold front that will blow through the area this weekend. Ahead of the front, a brief surge of significant heat and humidity will push into town as we wrap up the work week. Friday looks particularly oppressive as heat and humidity combine to push “feels like” temperatures into the lower 90s for many.
While we’ll have to fine tune timing and deal with the all-important specifics (are we having to deal with cloud cover that could limit instability?) as we get closer, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight western and northwestern Indiana in a risk of severe weather Friday. (Most of the storms should impact our state Friday night- still think the majority of the day time will be free of any storms).
As low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and drags a cold front through our region, it wouldn’t surprise me if the SPC hoists an additional risk of severe weather Saturday. Saturday afternoon into predawn Sunday is expected to offer up the most widespread coverage of rain and storms, locally.
Once the front is off to our east, a MUCH different airmass will blow into town, courtesy of a gusty northwest breeze. We’re talking about highs only in the 60s early next week with lows into the 40s. Talk about a breath of fresh air after the heat and humidity to close the week!
Dry weather should prevail Monday before a new system offers up a soaking Tuesday PM into Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/17/strong-front-this-weekend-delivers-surge-of-heat-storms-then-blast-of-unseasonably-cool-air/
May 10
“Transitional” Is The Theme For Our Temperature Pattern Upcoming 10-14 Days; Precipitation Pattern? Not So Much…
Updated 05.10.22 @ 6:30a
There’s a reason we labeled the midweek pattern as a “taste” of summer. Thankfully, (speaking for most, I believe) we’re not ready to “lock and load” the summer like heat and humidity. In fact, we’ll get some relief from humidity by the latter stages of the work week. By early next week, highs will drop back into the lower 70s and overnight lows will fall into the 40s.
Despite the roller coaster ride the next couple of weeks will likely deliver from a temperature perspective (remember, we have the MJO to deal with again now, too), the pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal over the upcoming 10-14 days.
While the pattern is likely one to continue featuring wild swings in temperatures to wrap up the month, most of the frontal systems seem like they won’t deliver excessive rainfall amounts from this distance. It should be noted the European data above has plenty of support from its American and Canadian counterparts.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/10/transitional-is-the-theme-for-our-temperature-pattern-upcoming-10-14-days-precipitation-pattern-not-so-much/
Apr 26
Blocky Pattern Leads To Drier, Cooler Stretch; Looking Ahead To A Return Of Active Times…
Updated 04.26.22 @ 5:30a
Now that our cold front is to our east, it’s time to look ahead to the next weather maker. Headlines over the next 48 hours will come from patchy frost potential (or “widespread” if north of the city, itself).
Weak systems will try and push into the Ohio Valley over the next 72 hours but most, if not all, of these systems should run into a drier, more stable airmass, locally and a rather significant weakening of any sort of organized areas of rain.
There will be times of mostly cloudy conditions and light shower chances midweek but most, if not all, of any sort of “organized” rain chances will hold off until the weekend. What at times will look like appreciable rain heading in our direction will diminish in significant fashion as it pushes east into the region. The blocking pattern will breakdown and allow more organized rain and storm chances to enter the picture from the west this weekend.
Rain and storm chances should increase in earnest Saturday night into Sunday morning, including the potential of locally heavy downpours.
Another storm system awaits on deck for a Sunday evening and Monday morning arrival…
More on this and more in this evening’s client video update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/26/blocky-pattern-leads-to-drier-cooler-stretch-looking-ahead-to-a-return-of-active-times/
Apr 06
More On The Upcoming Couple Of Weeks…
Updated 04.06.22 @ 6a
When we look at the “big driver” teleconnections over the next 10-14 days, it’s easy to understand why the active weather pattern is expected to continue. The NAO is expected to run predominantly negative over the next couple weeks (which favors eastern chill), but the EPO is expected to fluctuate between positive and negative phases and the MJO is showing signs of pushing into Phases 7 and 8 (favors eastern warmth this time of year).
The temperature regime over the next couple of weeks will fluctuate between periods of above normal warmth and well below normal chill. Despite a significant bump in the temperature regime next week, the unseasonably chilly conditions will return with authority late next week, including the threat of frost.
As you’d imagine in this kind of setup, the precipitation pattern will also go through a period of fluctuation. The heaviest precipitation anomalies will center in on the middle of next week through the latter part of the week and may also be met with the potential of severe weather during this time frame (targeting next Thursday for this threat, though this is subject to change as we draw closer and may have to be fine tuned).
Much more in tomorrow’s long range video discussion which will be posted Thursday night due to morning travel.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/06/more-on-the-upcoming-couple-of-weeks/
Mar 30
Much Warmer Day; Timing Out The Arrival Of Storms…
Updated 03.30.22 @ 6:38a
Our region will undergo a weather whiplash of sorts over the next 24-36 hours. We’ll briefly spike into the low-mid 70s with a strong southerly wind this afternoon- only to crash Thursday, including the opportunity for snow showers by evening.
The “transition” will be met with rain and storms tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes southern Indiana in a “slight” risk of severe weather and this is for storms that will arrive this evening. The primary concern from a severe perspective is damaging straight line winds. The idea here is that the approaching line of storms may include a couple “bowing” segments across southern Indiana (along and south of a line from Terre Haute to Bloomington) roughly between 7p and 10p west to east.
Temperatures will then fall through the day Thursday and wrap around moisture will begin to mix with and transition to wet snow showers Thursday evening into Friday morning… (Remember, we’re only the messenger).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/30/much-warmer-day-timing-out-the-arrival-of-storms/
Mar 16
Chill Isn’t Finished Yet…
Updated 03.16.22 @ 6:42a
While relative warmth will dominate headlines in the short-term, there’s plenty of reason not to buy into the idea that we’re finished with the chilly late winter temperatures just yet.
First, let’s start with the MJO. We’re in Phase 2 now, but what is most intriguing is the duration spent in Phase 3 (favors a pressing trough east and south similar to what image 2 shows below).
Should the MJO continue to move forward with similar amplitude then milder conditions would prevail as we get set to wrap up the month.
By that point, however, we’ll have to pay particularly close attention to the EPO and NAO phases. There are growing signals that both teleconnections will favor a return of colder than normal conditions prior to closing out the month. Couple that with the MJO movement and confidence continues to increase that we aren’t quite finished with the chill just yet. The question then becomes what takes place in April? We’ll lean into that with more detail during tomorrow’s update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/16/chill-isnt-finished-yet/