Category: Weather Rambles

Feb 04

Mild Week Ahead; More Prolonged Cold Pattern On The Table?

Updated 02.04.24 @ 8:55a

An unseasonably mild and quiet week is on tap. We aren’t forecasting rain to return into the picture until late week and the upcoming Super Bowl weekend. Highs will likely flirt with, if not exceed, the 60° mark Friday ahead of a frontal passage.

An unseasonably mild week is on tap.
Highs will flirt with, if not surpass, the 60° mark Friday.

After Friday’s FROPA, we’ll watch the trailing, more significant piece of energy impact the Ohio Valley next weekend. Obviously, it’s far too early to determine if we’re talking about more rain and/ or snow, but the initial hunch here is that this should be primarily a liquid event, despite the snowy solution on the overnight European model. We’ll watch carefully in the coming days.

The more active pattern late week and over the weekend is a signal that the pattern is changing. Once again, we believe that we’re heading into more of a prolonged version of what we dealt with in January, thought the jury is still out on the extreme solutions on the table with respect to just how cold (should we get into Phase 8 of the MJO then look out). As it is, the teleconnection suite aligning in a manner that they are is reason enough to be fired up on an all-out return of winter for mid-February. The forecasted strongly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) provides us with a greater than normal confidence level that this cold pattern will have staying power not only through the remainder of the month, but into the 1st half of March (at least).

Latest long range modeling highlights the prolonged nature of the cold pattern:

Temperature anomalies Feb. 17 – Mar. 20

Make it a great Sunday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-week-ahead-more-prolonged-cold-pattern-on-the-table/

Feb 02

Friday Morning Notes On The Pattern Ahead…

Updated 02.02.24 @ 7:37a

We don’t see any reason to deviate from the longstanding ideas on the overall pattern evolution ahead. February will continue to provide an unseasonably mild and quiet stretch through the first 1/3 of the month ahead of a pattern transition back to colder around or just after 2/10.

2/2 – 2/8

2/9 – 2/16

Note the ridge begins to break down across the East during the Week 2 period above. This is the transition to colder times, locally, as heights begin to build across western Canada and the northeastern Pacific. By mid-month, we’re talking about an entirely different pattern as a trough continues to deepen across the East along with unseasonably cold air become more entrenched.

In the shorter term period, not only are we talking about unseasonably warm temperatures (it’ll push 60°+ here late next week) but also incredibly quiet weather. In fact, we aren’t looking at another opportunity for measurable precipitation until next Thursday.

A warm front and trailing cold front will return a round of unsettled weather (rain and even thunderstorm potential) here as we get set to close the work week next week. More on expected rain coverage and amounts as we get into the weekend and next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-notes-on-the-pattern-ahead/

Jan 28

A Quieter Pattern To Close January; Open February…

Updated 01.28.24 @ 7:07a

The narrow but more organized band of locally moderate-heavy precipitation failed to materialize overnight. The result is a busted snowfall forecast. Sure some are dealing with wet snow this morning, but the type of precipitation rates weren’t achieved to cool the entire column of air enough to allow the accumulating snow axis of 1”-2” to materialize.

Regardless of what type of precipitation you’re seeing this morning, this will all pull out of the state around lunchtime. Western portions of Indiana will dry out much sooner.

We’ll be left with blustery conditions today, including north, northwest winds that will reach speeds north of 30 MPH at times.

Expected wind gusts of 30+ MPH through the afternoon

With all of this said, the great news is that the balance of the upcoming week (into next weekend) will be significantly quieter around these parts when compared to this past week. We’ll watch a clipper system that will likely deliver a cold rain and/ or a wintry mix Tuesday morning into the afternoon but this shouldn’t be a big deal across central Indiana.

That’s all she wrote on the precipitation front heading into next weekend. Heights will build over Hudson Bay (Hudson Bay block) this week and force a more active pattern to our south late week. While we’ll have to continue monitoring the potential of interesting times to our south (lower Ohio Valley, TN Valley and Deep South) going into Friday and the weekend, this upper air pattern should keep our immediate weather much quieter, aside from a “back door” cold front that will pass through here dry. We will certainly notice a much colder time of things developing during this period, along with gusty winds at times.


Looking Ahead: The overall pattern should feature a milder than normal regime (as a whole), along with drier than average conditions to close January and open February.

Week 1

Jan 28-Feb 3

Week 2

Feb 4-10

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-quieter-pattern-to-close-january-open-february/

Jan 23

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

Updated 01.23.24 @ 7:11a

Overall, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing ideas from last night’s video. If you didn’t have an opportunity to catch that, we encourage you to do so as it highlights our medium and long range thoughts in more detail.

The focus will change from one of ice to periods of rain (and dense fog) through the remainder of the week. We note multiple waves of more widespread rain that will ride into central Indiana over the next few days. While it won’t rain the entire time, an extended period of gloomy conditions will unfortunately be with us as we navigate the next few days and kick off the weekend.

Periods of rain can be expected through the remainder of the week.

Speaking of the weekend, we continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure that appears to take a classic track for a heavy snow dump around these parts. The problem? Cold air is fleeting and it’ll take the perfect combination of track, timing, and precipitation rates to generate anything meaningful from a wintry standpoint, locally. As of now, we favor this “sweet spot” to lay just north of our immediate area, but we’ll continue to closely monitor.

That brings us to our final point this morning and that’s wanting to ensure we drive home the idea here of an overall milder to significantly milder than normal pattern over the upcoming 10-14 days as a whole. While we’re incredibly bullish on winter’s return, we’re equally as impressed by this overall milder signal in the short to medium term.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-7/

Jan 17

Evening Update: Snow/ Wind Trends, Icy Setup Early Next Week, And More On The Pattern Flip Ahead…

Updated 01.17.24 @ 5:22p

While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.

The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.

We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.

Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.

After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.

A freezing rain event is becoming increasingly likely Mon evening into Tuesday.

Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-update-snow-wind-trends-icy-setup-early-next-week-and-more-on-the-pattern-flip-ahead/