Category: Weather Rambles

Saturday Morning Rambles: Wind The Big Story Today; Warmth On Borrowed Time…

Updated 11.05.22 @ 9:22a

I. Showers will scoot east of the region by late morning but we’re not done with the rain just yet. A skinny line of storms will likely blow across the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.

3p forecast radar

The other big story today will, of course, be the wind, including wind gusts around of 50-60 MPH. Strongest winds will come between 12p and 5p before diminishing this evening. Needless to say, batten down the hatches!

II. High pressure will supply an extended period of quiet weather through the bulk of the week ahead but there are changes on the horizon.

Our next cold front will blow into town Thursday night or Friday morning. As of now, it looks like it’ll be moisture starved but unlike this current system, the air behind the frontal passage will be drastically colder. How do highs in the lower 40s and lows in the lower 20s sound next weekend?

III. Next week’s front will be a “game changer” in that it will likely be the first attempt at bringing a more sustained colder pattern east. Note the latest European ensemble guidance below for the 10-15 day period. Needless to say, warmth is, indeed, on borrowed time…


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/05/saturday-morning-rambles-wind-the-big-story-today-warmth-on-borrowed-time/

Saturday Morning Rambles…

Updated 10.22.22 @ 7:14a

  1. A windy warm up complete with partly cloudy skies can be expected through the weekend. Highs will zoom well into the 70s and winds will gust 30-40 MPH

2. A cold front and associated surface wave of low pressure will spell a period of needed rains around these parts by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Rainfall totals are creeping up on recent model runs (good news as our rainfall deficit continues to grow more than 2”). Perhaps some 1”+ amounts are possible, especially for western areas with the passage of this system.

3. While we will “cool” behind the passage of the front, the airmass isn’t anything to write home about (lows in the lower 40s and highs in the mid-upper 60s).

4. The early call on Halloween reflects a chance of light rain but any storm system of significance appears to remain away from our region as of now. We’ll certainly continue to keep a close eye on things.

If you haven’t had a chance to read our long range outlook from Thursday, we encourage you to do so here. This will shed light on where the pattern is heading as we get into November.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/22/saturday-morning-rambles-11/

Reason For “Pause” Around Late October…

Updated 10.10.22 @ 6:01p

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Something’s Got To Give…

Updated 10.03.22 @ 5:32p

The NEW European Weeklies are in and continue to paint an intriguing picture as we look ahead to November. Remember, we’re of the belief that the pattern may, indeed, get off to a fast start to the winter season (for a change) this year.

At any rate, note the evolution at 500mb continues to up the ante that this idea may be right as we rumble into mid-November.

However, at the surface, the European doesn’t display the type of cooling one would imagine given the upper air pattern look.

My hunch is that we’ll see the trough “tuck in” further west to include a good portion of the central and east as we move forward and zone in on that mid-November time frame. That will likely force the surface temperature anomalies above to cool (significantly so if this idea is correct) for that time period.

It’ll be interesting to see what the update European seasonal product says in a couple of days. We’ll include that in Thursday’s long range update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/03/somethings-got-to-give/

Dinnertime Rambles: “Times, They Are A Changin…”

Updated 09.20.22 @ 6:33p Despite the fact that we’re looking at near-record heat tomorrow, when you get to late September, you know time is ticking on what can be an…

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Checking In On Those Test Cases…

Updated 08.27.22 @ 7:53a

First and foremost, happy college football season! Sure, this weekend’s games aren’t terribly exciting, but LIVE college football is back and sets the stage for an incredible slate this upcoming weekend! I’m looking forward to being on the Plains of southern Alabama next weekend to celebrate the return of another special Auburn football season!

I will still be posting a Client Video later today, but wanted to dedicate this post to the two test cases in the week ahead:

I. Strength and magnitude of the cooler air to open September

II. Pre Labor Day tropical excitement in the Gulf of Mexico

Let’s start with the cooler potential. The European has trended closer to the GFS solution in recent runs, opening September on a cooler than normal note. The GFS is still more aggressive with the cool down to open up meteorological fall, but the European is trending more and more towards this solution. What’s at stake? A couple of days to open the month with lows into the lower 50s (mid to upper 50s inside the circle, itself) and highs in the upper 70s with that classic autumn sky. Side note: a significantly warmer (hotter) pattern looms thereafter.

Now let’s talk about the tropics. Not much has changed here with the vast differences in handling the lead feature (threat in the Gulf of Mexico as Labor Day weekend nears). This morning, the GFS continues to beat the drum on this potential while the European isn’t excited in the least. We note the European ensemble product isn’t even hinting at the threat of a depression to develop during this period. It’ll be mighty interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. We should gain more clarity early in the work week. I will say, should something form, it appears to be an eventual southern of western Gulf threat from this distance.

GFS remains bullish on a tropical threat in the Gulf Labor Day weekend.
Meanwhile, the European is having none of it…

Video discussion looking over 12z data and jumping ahead to the next big surge of warmth will be online later today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/checking-in-on-those-test-cases/

Surge Of Warmth To Close Out Meteorological Summer, But What Comes After?

Updated 08.21.22 @ 4:48p

We’ve enjoyed quite the pleasant stretch of temperatures and humidity levels as of late, but there are increasing signs of a return of heat and humidity to close out August. In particular, we target the latter part of the week into early Week 2 for a stretch of 90° (plus?) to make a return visit as an upper ridge builds over the Great Lakes and Northeast.

For the most part, the pattern will also embrace a drier theme. As moisture levels return, isolated to widely scattered coverage of storms will likely return by the weekend, but we don’t envision any organized rain and storms through the upcoming week- after today.

This aligns with the pattern drivers (developing positive EPO and a hyper MJO into Phases 2 and 3). That said, there are growing indications the MJO will remain in an amplified state as we roll into September. If this is indeed the case, it appears as if we’ll move into Phase 4 early September. Certainly not set in stone but this is noteworthy as the correlation delivers an unseasonably cool stretch of temperatures for our area, including into the central Plains.

At times, the GFS can be too “quick” in displaying pattern changes, but should we get into Phase 4, we’ll have to pay attention for the threat of a shot of true early fall temperatures (at least for a couple of days) come early September. We’ll keep a close eye on things…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/21/surge-of-warmth-to-close-out-meteorological-summer-but-what-comes-after/

Saturday Afternoon Rambles…

Updated 08.20.22 @ 2:05p I. Unsettled weather will continue at times through early next week. The primary culprit has to do with an upper level area of low pressure slowly…

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Sunday Morning Rambles: Tropics About To Wake Up? New Model Data In For Fall – Winter…

Updated 08.07.22 @ 8:44a

1.) In the short-term, a much cooler and less humid airmass awaits on deck this week. 2 frontal systems will pass through the state between Tuesday night and Thursday. We’ll notice an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon/ evening and repeating itself once again Monday afternoon/ and evening as the 1st front slowly sags south. Some gusty winds are possible with these lines of storms, as well as heavy rain. In fact, most areas in/ around Indianapolis and points north should cash in on 1″ to 2″ of rain (locally heavier totals) by Tuesday morning.

2.) The secondary cold front won’t have as much moisture to work with so coverage of showers and storms isn’t expected to be as widespread Thursday (“widely scattered” at best from this distance).

Thereafter, an even drier and cooler air mass is scheduled to arrive just in time for the weekend. Look for lower humidity levels, sunshine, and refreshing temperatures (even should dip into the 50s for overnight lows).

3.) After a quiet time in the tropics, there are signs we’re on the cusp of heading into busier days (should the MJO swing into Phase 2, then things could get very busy and in rather quick fashion). We note the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave that’s just now emerging off the African coast. There’s the potential the environment will become more conducive for gradual development of this feature over the next few days.

Also of interest is the precipitation pattern in the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple weeks. Additional trouble lurking here? It’s getting to be that time of year…

4.) Finally, new seasonal modeling is in for the upcoming fall and winter. The European seasonal model suggests that potentially our idea of a fast start to the upcoming winter (after a warmer than average fall overall) is on the right track.

Meteorological fall (Sept through Nov):

Note how the ridge builds in western Canada come December (reflection of a trough over the East). Candidly, for a model that struggles to ever really see cold, this is a bullish look. We’ll have to keep an eye on things as we get closer as I suspect cold to begin to show with more authority given the 500mb setup. Cold, wintry Christmas season in the works this year?

December:

The pattern is shown to remain favorable for additional colder than normal weather, locally, into the new year:

January:

Very interesting as this fits our early research (triple dip Nina). Also of interest is how things break down and are modeled to end on a warmer than normal note (would agree with this idea as well) as we finish off meteorological winter.

February:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/07/sunday-morning-rambles-tropics-about-to-wake-up-new-model-data-in-for-fall-winter/

VIDEO: Tracking Midweek Storms; Additional Chatter As Meteorological Fall Nears…

Updated 08.02.22 @ 7:30a

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