Category: Weather Highlights

Burst Of Snow This Afternoon; Storms And “Rumors” Of Storms This Upcoming Week…

The day is starting off on a cold note with some fog and low clouds around, but at least we’re dry (for now). That will begin to change here in a few hours as a burst of snow moves into the city around lunchtime. A brief period of moderate to heavy snow may whiten the ground just north of the city before a transition to a cold rain for the better part of the afternoon.

Further north, cold air will hang on longer and a more significant period of snow is expected through the afternoon and early evening. In fact, periods of heavy snow can be expected, including snowfall rates up to 1″ per hour at times. If you have travel plans to places such as Ft. Wayne, South Bend, or Logansport, we’d recommend preparing for slick travel and snow covered roads can be expected. This will be a wet and heavy snow. Pavement impacts will require salting and plowing across the northern 1/3 of the state this afternoon into the evening.

Here’s our snowfall forecast today:

The attention will then shift to a period of moderate to heavy rain through the evening and into the overnight across the I-70 corridor. By the time all is said and done Monday morning, widespread 1″ to 1.5″ is expected with the passage of this storm system. Good news? Most of the rain should be south of our area by the morning rush Monday.

High pressure will then settle into the Ohio Valley as we move into Monday evening and Tuesday, allowing a briefly quieter period of weather to arrive on the scene.

By this time, however, all eyes will shift to the southwest and our next storm system that should be brewing. While models differ on the specifics with this storm, the overall upper pattern suggests we need to remain on our toes with respect for the potential of additional winter weather stretching from the mid-MS Valley Wednesday, Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday, and interior Northeast Thursday into Thursday night. A brief, but potent shot of arctic air would follow to close the work week- especially if we can get some snow down.

Should snow get laid down with this system across the OHV region, a cold arctic high would be capable of sending temperatures into the single digits to close the work week.

Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/09/burst-of-snow-this-afternoon-storms-and-rumors-of-storms-this-upcoming-week/

Whole Lot Of Weather Going On…

There’s sure no shortage of active weather, and unfortunately (or fortunately- depending on your perspective), there’s no letup in sight. As we look ahead, we see a fascinating battle of heavyweights set to duke it out for control of our mid and late February pattern. Before we get into some of the longer range model updates, let’s focus on the short and medium term challenges.

Heavy Rain

We continue to target (3) distinct windows where rainfall will be heaviest:

I. Late tonight-Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning

III. Thursday evening

In general, widespread 2″ to 2.5″ totals are expected in area rain gauges with heavier amounts across south-central Indiana (where flood risks are highest).

The other item to note? The potential of strong and gusty thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening. These would be located directly ahead of the cold front. While we’re not anticipating a widespread major event, temperatures and dew points will approach 60 deg. and the atmosphere will be favorable to support a few strong gusts that may mix down to the surface.

Sharply Colder

The cold front that will deliver the heavy rainfall for our midweek will sweep through central Indiana around 4p-5p. Behind the boundary, sharply colder air will blow in on strong and gusty northwest winds Thursday night. Daytime highs (actual highs will occur at midnight Friday) will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the 0s most of the day.

Winter Threat Late Weekend-Early Next Week?

The fresh batch of cold air in here to wrap up the work week will lay the ground work for potential wintry mischief late weekend into early next week. While the cold still isn’t set to truly establish itself (still think we’re a week-10 days away from that), just enough cold may be around to present the opportunity for an accumulating central and northern Ohio Valley winter threat in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

The hesitation that we still have from beginning to “ring the bells” a little louder in the aforementioned period is the position of the high in front of the storm and forecast strongly positive AO. Both of these argue against the idea of this being a widespread wintry event for the southern, and potentially as far north as central Ohio Valley. The early idea here as of now is that we’ll be looking at a wintry mix event to rain for central and southern areas with more of an opportunity for substantial snow across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Again, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things.

Longer term, today’s MJO update continues to take things into Phase 8 and you don’t need us to cover the end result again (think cold) at this point. Should we get the other teleconnections to line-up (AO, PNA, NAO) then a 2-3 week period of significant winter weather would ensue during the 2/20-3/10 timeframe…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/whole-lot-of-weather-going-on/

Weekend Rambles: Dry Conditions Remain; Sunday Morning Freeze…

I. A cold front blew through the state last night and we’ll deal with a gusty northerly breeze throughout the day. At times, periods of low clouds will be with us, especially into the early afternoon hours.  As skies clear and winds diminish tonight, a hard freeze is likely for most of central Indiana, including the potential of setting a new record low in Indianapolis (record low for Sunday is 31°).

II. High pressure will build in for the second half of the weekend and remain in control of our weather through the first half of the work week.  Dry conditions will remain along with a significant warming trend.

III. We’ll actually go above normal (for a change) through the early and middle parts of next week, including highs around 80° by Tuesday!

IV. Unsettled weather returns for the second half of the work week. Models differ on rainfall totals, but we’ll include mention of 7-day totals in the 0.75″ to 1.25″ range- most of which falls Thursday and Friday.

V. Cooler than normal temperatures will return for Week 2 so be sure to enjoy the warmth while we have it next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/28/weekend-rambles-dry-conditions-remain-sunday-morning-freeze/

Settling In From The Road: Quick Review Of Latest Thoughts…

I apologize for not having an update out sooner, but have been on the road all day and just getting settled in.  With that said, I’ve been keeping up-to-date with the latest model data and really have no significant changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast:

Latest highlights:

  • A cold rain will overspread the state during the overnight
  • Expect rain to change to wet snow during the pre-dawn hours for Indianapolis and surrounding areas
  • Heavy wet snow will continue through the morning and afternoon and where heaviest bands set up, snowfall rates of 1″+ per hour can be anticipated
  • Winds will gust to 30 MPH+ into the evening hours Saturday
  • Snow will diminish from northwest to southeast Saturday evening
  • As we always say, late March snow events always bring surprises and while bust potential is present (both on the high and low side on the going forecast), this is our best idea and it’ll be fun to watch things unfold.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/23/settling-in-from-the-road-quick-review-of-latest-thoughts/

Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…

I.  A cold front will move across the state this evening.  Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.  While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.

Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.

Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.

II.  After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.

III.  Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.

IV.  A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August.  In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night.  Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/17/thursday-morning-weather-notebook-changes-brewing-to-close-august/

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/18/upcoming-week-headliners/

Weekly Highlights: Tropical Weather Headlines…

Highlights928104There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well.  One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week.  While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes.  🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

1.) A cold front will move through the Mid West and Ohio Valley during the early to middle portion of the work week and be responsible for putting a temporary delay in #harvest15.  While rainfall won’t be particularly heavy, it’ll help to serve up a fresh chill to the air as we progress from mid to late week.  A significant temperature reversal can be expected from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal from early week to late week.

2.)  A tropical disturbance is plaguing the Gulf Coastal waters with rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rain to open the week.  As this disturbance moves northeast, heavy rains will encompass a large portion of the southeast, as well as southern and central Appalachians, on up the eastern seaboard.

3.)  Perhaps of more importance is the way things evolve over the coming couple days with TD 11 and the overall weather pattern off the eastern seaboard.  If you live along the East Coast, you’ll want to pay particularly close attention to the goings on.  At the very least, an impactful system is ahead from a heavy rain and erosion perspective, but there’s also the potential of something more severe from a purely tropical stand point.

4.)  An area of low pressure will drop south along the Front Range late in the period and offer up beneficial moisture to not only the Front Range, but the central Plains.

As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide.  Have a great day and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/28/weekly-highlights-tropical-weather-headlines/

IndyWx.com