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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/07/video-tracking-delta-pattern-turns-chilly-again-down-the-road/
Oct 05
Soon-To-Be “Delta” Makes For A Busy Week Along The Gulf Coast; 3-Week Outlook For Central IN…
Before we talk tropics, frost is widespread this morning across the state. We note some are even at the freezing mark as we start the new work week.
This is right around average, or just a few days early, for our first 32° freeze of the year across central Indiana.
Expect bright sunshine and another classic fall sky this afternoon which will help warm us to around 60°.
The week ahead will feature quiet conditions across the region. We’ll watch a couple of cold fronts scoot by to our northeast and, of course, soon-to-be Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. Delta will likely strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the north-central Gulf Coast late week. There are ingredients in place that may result in rapid intensification later this week and the potential of Delta strengthening into a major hurricane is on the table, IMHO. Thankfully, the combination of increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures right along the coast (thanks to the early fall fronts that have made it unusually far south) should help lead to weakening prior to landfall. The problem with that, however, is if the system is coming in as a major, storm surge will still be quite significant.
If you have plans to travel to the northern Gulf Coast, please pay particularly close attention to the develops over the coming hours and days. As of this morning, it appears as if we’ll be looking at a Friday landfall.
Back here on the home front, quiet conditions are expected this week- and for the most part over the next few weeks. Perhaps the next item of excitement will be a cold front pegged to move through the region in the 8-10 day period. We’ll need to keep close eyes on the EPO/ PNA trends in the Week 2 period for the possibility of a sharp jab of colder air behind that cold front. This would come after a nice surge of warmth (Indian Summer) compared to normal. Additionally, looking even further ahead, longer range guidance is beginning to get excited around the potential of unseasonably cold (wintry like) air to open November.
Week 1
Week 2
As expected, the pattern should continue to run quite dry through the better part of the period:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/05/soon-to-be-delta-makes-for-a-busy-week-along-the-gulf-coast-3-week-outlook-for-central-in/
Oct 04
VIDEO: Frosty Start Monday Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures This Week; Keeping Close Eyes On The Gulf…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/04/video-frosty-start-monday-gives-way-to-moderating-temperatures-this-week-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-gulf/
Oct 03
VIDEO: Looking Ahead Over The Next Couple Weeks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/03/video-looking-ahead-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Sep 26
VIDEO: Summer Like Weekend Gives Way To The Chill Of Autumn…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/26/video-summer-like-weekend-gives-way-to-the-chill-of-autumn/
Sep 25
VIDEO: Summer-like Weekend Before Major Changes Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/25/video-summer-like-weekend-before-major-changes-next-week/
Sep 17
Long Range Update: Extended Dry Pattern Rolls Along; New Winter Seasonal Data Is In…
Unfortunately there likely won’t be any significant changes to our precipitation pattern until late autumn and winter. Until then, we’ll have to take any drop of rain we can find. Once the pattern flips though, it may do so in quick and rather dramatic fashion (still expecting a wet winter).
The consensus of long range data shows the dry pattern continuing over the upcoming few weeks, including the JMA Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and ensemble products.
Analogs and other teleconnections support this dry theme. At least in the immediate range (through mid October) the only way to bust up this dry pattern is to get tropical moisture involved.
The new JMA Weeklies maintain the ‘mean’ ridge position across the West for the majority of the upcoming few weeks, but there will likely be attempts to expand the ridge across the northern tier Week 2 and 3 that would lead to at least transitional periods of much warmer air, after the cool period in the short term.
The model sees the ridge expanding Weeks 3-4 and the associated warmth that spreads east after the chilly regime.
The new JAMSTEC seasonal data is also in and maintains a warm look this winter. A lot of this has to do with an expected persistent southeastern ridge. We agree with this but, as is the case each winter, there will be challenges that have to be dealt with.
We also agree with the active storm track through the Ohio Valley and associated well above normal precipitation in the December through February period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/17/long-range-update-extended-dry-pattern-rolls-along-new-winter-seasonal-data-is-in/
Sep 11
Long Range Update: Walking Through The Back Half Of September…
We believe the pattern during the 2nd half of the month will be driven by the MJO and PNA. The MJO is forecast into Phase 6 and 7 by the 18th-24th time frame.
Phase 6 is quite warm, but notice how the chilly air begins to push during Phase 7.
Neither phase is overly wet, but there’s hope compared to how dry it’s been over the past 2-3 weeks.
Interestingly enough, after a “neutral” phase with the PNA, both the GFS and European ensemble products predict a strong positive shift just after the 20th. This suggests to me that the week starting around that point should feature more widespread and stronger chill, compared to normal.
Let’s look at the latest model guidance, starting with the European ensemble:
Week 1 is still warmer than normal across our region, but notice the strong cooling by Week 2 (Sept. 18th-25th time frame).
The GFS ensemble is similar during the Week 1 and Week 2 time frame.
Given that strong PNA by late month, it wouldn’t surprise me to see these anomalies grow cooler as time gets closer during that Week 2 period.
Overall, the pattern continues to look dry, although there should be a better shot of rain/ storms as the cold front moves into the region that will ultimately deliver the much cooler air late month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/11/long-range-update-walking-through-the-back-half-of-september/
Sep 10
VIDEO: Dry Conditions Remain, Overall, Through The Short-Term; Eyeing A Stronger Cold Front Days 8-10…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/10/video-dry-conditions-remain-overall-through-the-short-term-eyeing-a-stronger-cold-front-days-8-10/
Sep 08
2 Sides To Every Storm…
An early taste of winter is descending on the Rockies today (the town of Breckenridge camera will be fun to check in on from time to time over the next 24 hours). Places, such as Denver, that were in the 90s yesterday will fall into the 20s and 30s today with snow.
Note the big spread in temperatures across the country this morning and corresponding 24 hour temperature change:
We’ll remain on the mostly dry and warm side of this event until the weekend.
Once the storm system lifts northeast and gets close enough to impact our region, it’ll be in a much weaker state. Scattered showers and thunder are possible over the weekend, but widespread significant rainfall isn’t expected.
After heavy rains fell across north-central Indiana Monday, a much drier theme can be expected throughout the next several days. A widely scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible before Saturday, but most should remain rain-free. Even as the storm system draws closer, weekend rainfall should average only between 0.25″ and 0.50″ for most.
Cooler air (nothing to the extent or magnitude of what our friends out west are seeing) will filter in here late weekend and early next week. Lows into the 50s can be expected with a couple of days of highs in the 70s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/08/2-sides-to-every-storm/