Highlights:
- Turning colder
- Freezing rain develops Friday night
- Wet times continue
Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.
The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.
We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.
Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″
2.) Expanding Snowpack: 65.4% of the country is covered in snow this morning. The cold, arctic high suppressed the winter storm threat south as we alluded to in previous posts. Places across the Deep South that aren’t used to wintry precipitation are waking up to snowy and icy conditions this morning, including MS, AL, GA, SC, and into the Mid Atlantic. Heavier snowfall accumulated across east TN, including 5″-8″ in the high country. Heavy snow also fell through western and central NC and Blizzard Warnings are up in rare areas including VA Beach this morning.
3.) Moderating Temperatures: Our air flow will back around to the southwest and this will help temperatures begin to moderate early next week (around freezing Monday and all the way to around 50 Tuesday). As the moderating trend gets underway, we may have to deal with a brief period of freezing drizzle/ freezing rain Monday evening.
4.) Rainy Midweek: A more significant surge of moisture will arrive midweek and result in periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday PM into Thursday. Potential is present for 1″+ during this timeframe.
5.) Weekend Wintry “Fun And Games?” A tremendous battle will take place next weekend between a strong and sprawling arctic high pressure system and the southeast ridge. In between it’ll be fascinating to watch things unfold, and as you’d imagine, that includes Indiana. Despite the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle, the concern here is that the shallow dense arctic air will “ooze” south and present an icy set-up for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid West for the weekend. We still have some time to watch this, but the potential of significant icing is very much present for some and this will require a close eye through the week.