Category: Unseasonably Warm

Jan 24

So Long Boring Weather…

Screen Shot 2015-01-24 at 8.49.04 AMBusy Times In The Forecast Office…Let’s get to the easy part of this forecast package and that’s today.  Look for lots of sunshine along with seasonably mild temperatures after a cold and frosty start.

Things get fun tomorrow as a clipper low dives southeast and tracks in a favorable position for accumulating snow- especially from the city and points north (snowfall forecast below).  A mixture of rain and snow will overspread central Indiana Sunday morning and transition to all snow through the late morning into the early afternoon.  This will be a heavy, wet snow (perfect for snowball fights or making a snowman).  The other aspect to this storm system will be an increasing east and northeast wind Sunday evening into Monday morning.  Snow will diminish Sunday night, but the “damage” will likely be done by that point, leaving a mark on your Monday morning commute.

Another (weaker) weather maker may deliver scattered snow showers Tuesday.

Briefly milder air will move in here Thursday with a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet (depending on where you’re viewing us through the state), but the bigger story will be MUCH colder air set to pour into the region to close January and open February.  Some forecast models suggest a winter storm will precede the bitterly cold air around Super Bowl Sunday…. Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 5″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

12515SnowfallMap

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/so-long-boring-weather/

Jan 21

Colder, But Nothing Drastic…

Screen Shot 2015-01-21 at 6.28.17 PM

Colder, But Nothing Too Out Of The Ordinary…A colder theme will be with us as we put a wrap on the work week.  That said, temperatures will actually be much closer to where they should be for this time of the year.  A quiet weather pattern will continue until we watch a clipper system for the second half of the weekend.  As of now, the accumulating snow looks to stay north of our immediate region, but we’ll keep a close eye on it.  Officially, we’ll call for increasingly cloudy skies Saturday night into Sunday morning with scattered rain showers Sunday afternoon changing to snow showers Sunday night before ending. If traveling north, prepare for several inches of snow across northern portions of the state into the Great Lakes region.  Stay tuned as this system is still a few days off and changes can take place moving forward.  Colder air follows for early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/colder-but-nothing-drastic/

Jan 21

Facts Are Facts…

I’m hearing rumblings out there that you can’t get sustained cold across Indiana without a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and/ or negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  I would ask those with that belief to please explain the following:

January temperature anomalies month-to-date show widespread cold (even accounting for the January thaw the past week).

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

 

The first two weeks of the month were downright frigid and this was in the face of an AO that was not just positive, but strongly positive.

AO

To take this a step farther, the recent relative warmth has come with a negative AO.

Bottom line is that a ton of drivers are trying to take the wheel this winter.  Admittedly, that makes things incredibly difficult for forecasting- short-term or longer range.  That said, coming out with a “blanket statement” that you can’t have sustained cold without a negative AO or NAO is a flat-out lie and we wanted to address it.  Teleconnections can help many times with coming weather patterns, but not always.  This winter is a prime example of that.

Quick note on the clipper system- all forecast models today have taken the primary impacts (at least from a snow standpoint) north of the immediate region (central Indiana). Heaviest snows are favored across the Great Lakes, extending down into northern IN. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/facts-are-facts/

Jan 20

Tuesday Evening Update

Quick video update this evening discussing our next weather system and looking ahead to the next opportunity for accumulating snow…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-update-2/

Jan 19

Fast-Moving Weak Weather Systems…

Screen Shot 2015-01-19 at 8.27.43 AM

Challenging Northwest Flow…A series of fairly weak weather systems will scoot through the region through the first half of the week.  Each disturbance will be capable of depositing a quick round of light precipitation.  Timing will be the biggest issue at hand with the first couple weak disturbances.  We’ll forecast light rain (perhaps a wet snow flake or two) tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

A drier stretch of weather will arrive for the second half of the work week and early portions of the weekend.  We target Sunday evening as the next opportunity for accumulating snow followed by a push of colder air.  As of now, week 2 is looking unseasonably cold after seasonable to above average temperatures this week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.30″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/fast-moving-weak-weather-systems/