Category Archives: Unseasonably Warm

Upper Level Ridge (And Heat) Builds This Weekend…

As our attention shifts to the medium range, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that this weekend will be dominated by an upper level ridge “ballooning” over the Ohio Valley.  Both the GFS and European forecast models (and their ensembles) show this.

The end result shouldn’t only be an increasingly hot pattern taking hold Friday through Monday, but one that features mainly dry conditions, as well.  With the upper ridge expanding over the immediate region, the majority of central Indiana neighborhoods should expect to remain mostly dry this weekend (only “isolated” coverage of storms expected at best).

Highs Friday through Monday should flirt with 90°- if not exceed the 90° mark at times (hottest days appear to arrive Saturday and Sunday).

Rain and storm coverage should increase early next week as a cold front approaches the region.  With the increasing moisture, temperatures should also cool- at least slightly, as well…

No Comments Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

New Week Kicks Off With More Storm Chances…

An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week.  The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-).  While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain.  A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.

Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.

A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week.  Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.

We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.

Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).

An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air.  We’ll keep you updated!

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Dew points, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Tropical Feel With Daily Storm Chances…

Slow moving thunderstorms are currently producing small hail and torrential rainfall north of Lafayette (as of 5:45p Thursday).  We have reports of 1″ to as much as 1.5″ of rain falling near Battle Ground in less than an hour.

Eventually these storms should pick up momentum and head off to the southeast later tonight.

This is only the beginning of daily rain and storm chances in a warm and humid air mass through the weekend and on into early next week.  The culprit?  An upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains and “spokes” of energy, or upper level disturbances, rotating around the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest.

An increasingly muggy air mass will take hold of the region as we close the work week, with dew points approaching 70° at times.  The term “air you can wear” comes to mind.  As impulses of energy interact with this tropical air mass, thunderstorms will blossom- particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.

We’ll have to nail down specifics with storm coverage and timing within our short-term forecast products and updates, but each day into early next week will feature coverage of storms across central Indiana.  Future forecast radar products show scattered to numerous storms around Friday evening and again Saturday.  Get used to this look.

Looking down the road, a “sticky” summer feel will remain intact through next week, but changes are brewing in the longer range.  These changes would support a cooler regime developing just past mid-June (in the 10 to 15 day time frame).  While the duration is up for debate, it’ll be nice for at least a few days of cooler air…

No Comments AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles