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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-video-update-4/
Jun 15
Video Update: Stormy For Some This Afternoon…
Do we rid the morning convection and cloudiness to allow strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening? This morning’s video has more.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-update-stormy-for-some-this-afternoon/
Jun 14
Strong Storm Threat Wednesday…
Highlights:
- Scattered strong-severe storm threat Wednesday
- Drier close to the week
- Next front arrives Monday PM
Keeping An Eye On Wednesday’s Storm Threat…Today’s rain numbers weren’t uniform in the least, but several neighborhoods picked up beneficial rains of over 1.5″. Wednesday will also feature the threat of showers and thunderstorms (again, some with locally heavy downpours). Some of these storms could also reach strong to severe levels during the afternoon/ evening, particularly if morning rain doesn’t “get in the way.” We’ll watch data overnight and update accordingly come morning.
We’ll turn drier and slightly cooler to close the work week and head on into the weekend. The heat will begin to crank again early next week, with highs around 90 Sunday and Monday. Our next weather maker looks to arrive Monday evening as a cold front pushes in from the north. We’ll feature shower and thunderstorm chances in our Monday PM forecast.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00 (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-storm-threat-wednesday/
Jun 13
Some Thoughts Into Late June…
The first (12) days of June are in the books and we’re running drier and warmer than average, month-to-date. Officially, IND reports a temperature departure of 3 degrees above normal and a rainfall deficit approaching 1″.
As we look ahead, the pattern is one that seems to favor the most sustained hot dome (mean ridge) position across the 4 Corners region and Southwest states. This morning’s European ensemble data shows this well:
The teleconnections aren’t much help in trying to generate longer term thoughts. They would favor more of a “normal” period temperature-wise, locally. (BTW, thanks to the fine folks at MAD US Weather and ESRL for the data below).
On another note, there are different times through the year when the respected positive and negative phases of the teleconnections below have more of an impact on our weather, particularly during the fall through spring months.
Looking at some of the model data, the general consensus is for a warm look to go through the back half of the month, but we caution that we can’t simply “broad brush” the forecast through the EOM as warm and relatively quiet (a note on that in a moment).
As mentioned above, despite an overall warm look on the models there will likely be periods of cooler “jabs” and it sure looks like a rather transient pattern to us across the Mid West and Ohio Valley, featuring more of the sustained heat across the Southwest region. Transient patterns usually also yield for potential wetness and we note the GFS Ensembles trending in that direction to wrap up the month.
In the shorter term, there will also be localized heavy downpours, but it’s a continued case of “haves and have nots.” There won’t be any particular rhyme or reason to the specific placement of heavy, gully-washer type showers and storms mid week.
Finally, to close, perhaps the MJO shows the pattern best over the next couple weeks. Best word to describe the MJO’s idea? Transient. 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/some-thoughts-into-late-june/
Jun 12
Turning Less Humid…
Highlights:
- Storm threat over the southern half of the state
- Turning less humid
- Scattered mid week storms
- Cooler to close the week
Another Hot One…A weak frontal boundary will slip through central IN this afternoon and evening and serve as a “trigger” for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms for central and southern parts of the state. We’ll also turn less humid this evening into Monday.
Warmth and humidity surge again Tuesday and there will be times of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Uniform rains aren’t expected, but there will be some localized heavy downpours. Remember the saying of “haves and have nots.”
A cooler northeasterly air flow will arrive to “freshen things up” a bit as we close the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/turning-less-humid/