Highlights:
- Moderating temperatures
- Not impressed with rain amounts with our front
- Much cooler weekend
Lots Of Sunshine; Significantly Cooler Weekend…In the short-term, high pressure will supply central IN with a beautiful Tuesday, complete with pleasant conditions and lots of sunshine.
Moisture will begin to return Wednesday with an increasingly moist feel to the air mass as the day progresses. An isolated shower is possible, especially across western portions of the state, but most of the region should remain rain-free.
Our next opportunity of rain comes Friday as a cold front moves in to close the work week. As of now, we’re not impressed with rainfall amounts as the front crosses the state. Our wind will shift to the NW and turn gusty Saturday with much cooler air pouring into the region. A nice cool, crisp, autumn weekend awaits. The season’s coolest air thus far will greet us over the weekend.
In the tropics, Hurricane Matthew remains at the forefront. Those who live along the East Coast (from the FL peninsula all the way up the eastern seaboard) should keep a close eye on forecasts and data over the next few days.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.
Slow moving showers and embedded thunder will be most numerous this afternoon before slowly diminishing tonight. While we’ll have to maintain mention of a shower Sunday, most folks will remain dry.
