Category: Unseasonably Warm

Dec 12

Tuesday Evening Rambles: Wintry Weather And More Christmas Week Chatter…

I.) The pattern we’re currently dealing with is one that presents multiple challenges in the near term.  East-central and northeastern portions of the state have gotten in on the snow act today, but, so far, most of central Indiana has missed out on the snowy goods. With such a fast-paced northwest flow, we have to remain on guard for potential “surprises” in this pattern.  Perhaps the HRRR is beginning to pick up on this.  Latest runs want to deliver a “pop” of snow Wednesday morning, associated with “warm” air advection (WAA).  We’ll monitor tonight.

9a forecast radar Wednesday

II.  The northwest flow will continue to provide disturbances plenty capable of producing periods of snow again Wednesday evening through the end of the week.  Are these monster storms?  Hardly, but they can “suddenly” become sufficient enough to create travel problems given the pattern.  For those who live across the northern half of the state, plan to keep close tabs to local forecasts if you have travel plans through the end of the week.

III.  A period of brief moderation will come in this pattern early Christmas week, but all eyes continue to focus on the period between December 22nd through December 26th for the potential of impactful weather across our region.  For model “worshipers” out there, we suggest paying more attention to overall trends, and a blend of ensemble data, as opposed to specifics associated with operational runs.  It’s a “jailbreak” pattern of sorts as true arctic air will be pouring down the Plains while the southeastern ridge tries to fight for a time.  The resistance from the southeastern ridge and associated tight thermal gradient should promote a very stormy regime for the interior (Ohio Valley into the interior northeast) as we head into the true holiday/ Christmas stretch.  As of now, we favor the idea of multiple waves along the pressing arctic boundary, as opposed to one big storm.  Looking back through the records shows some of the heaviest snows at IND have come from similar set-ups.  Understanding each set-up is unique, the overall pattern does have to raise an eye brow for potential of wintry weather in, or around, our region as Christmas approaches…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-rambles-wintry-weather-and-more-christmas-week-chatter/

Dec 11

Another Cold Week; Snow Showers Develop Overnight…

Highlights:

  • Snow showers develop overnight
  • Another arctic shot
  • Milder for the weekend

Snow Showers Develop Overnight…Another fast moving upper air disturbance is on the move southeast this morning and will result in a mostly cloudy and blustery open to the work week. As cold air advection (CAA) kicks in overnight and Tuesday, snow showers will develop across the region.  We’ll also note the potential of a more intense and persistent lake effect band setting up across east-central Indiana (where a couple inches will accumulate Tuesday).  If your travels take you into eastern and northeastern portions of the state Tuesday, prepare for sudden drops in visibility and slick travel.

Additional upper level energy will scoot through here during the middle part of the work week and while this will help to reinforce the cold, it’ll also provide scattered snow showers.

We’ll switch gears and get into a briefly milder southwesterly air flow over the upcoming weekend.  Strong and gusty southwest winds will aid in giving a boost to the mercury, but showers will make for a damp end to the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting (for most) to 2″ across east-central Indiana
  • Rainfall: 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-cold-week-snow-showers-develop-overnight/

Dec 04

Here Comes Winter…

Highlights:

  • Falling temperatures Tuesday
  • Much colder
  • Active northwest flow

Winter Engaged…Showers and embedded thunderstorms will rumble across the state during the overnight as a cold front draws closer.  This is a “game changer” of a cold front, separating anomalous warmth over the past few days to a locked and loaded winter pattern.  Temperatures will fall through the day Tuesday and just enough wrap around moisture will be present to support mention of evening flurries.

Morning scattered snow showers will continue early Wednesday before a reinforcing blast of arctic air blows into town at night.  This will set up a frigid close to the work week and feature a fast paced northwest flow pattern into the upcoming weekend.  We’ll have to remain very focused on upper level energy over the weekend.  Models have been struggling (as expected given the pattern) on the specifics and we know this type regime can overachieve in the snow department.  As things stand now, a period of snow showers with light accumulation still seems like a good bet Friday into Saturday.

Another (potentially more significant) snow event looms early next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/here-comes-winter/

Dec 04

VIDEO: Party’s Over After Today…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-partys-over-after-today/

Dec 03

Winter Sets In…

Highlights:

  • Showers and t-storms Monday night
  • Turning much colder
  • Snowy close to the work week

Changes Loom…We couldn’t have asked for a more delightful weekend to open December.  Plentiful sunshine helped warm afternoon highs into the 55-60 degree range both Saturday and Sunday across central Indiana.  We sure hope you found a way to get out and enjoy it as major changes loom.

A cold front responsible for ushering in these changes will blow through the state Tuesday morning.  Ahead of the cold front, look for a line of showers and thunderstorms Monday night.  For the most part, rain should be southeast of our region before the morning rush Tuesday.  Winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much colder air mass through the day.  This will set the tone for what the rest of the week will hold (and for that matter, most of the rest of the month).

Cold, dry conditions will be with us for midweek before a vigorous upper level disturbance races southeast across the Ohio Valley to close the work week.  Snow showers and unseasonably cold conditions are a given Thursday night through Saturday morning and we’ll have to continue to monitor things closely for the prospects of the season’s first accumulating snow Friday.  These type events have been known to “overachieve.”

The cold pattern is just setting in and shows no signs of departing in the longer range.  Additional wintry “mischief” looms next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-sets-in/