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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-soaking-rains-tropics-and-a-much-cooler-feel-next-week/
Oct 03
Bonus Summertime…
Highlights:
- Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
- Warm pattern continues
- Changes loom later next week
Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days. It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend. At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend. The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell. It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday. Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.
As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast. Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico. While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland. It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Back to the FROPA discussion: The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week. The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period. In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bonus-summertime/
Oct 02
VIDEO: More Active Times Loom…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-more-active-times-loom/
Oct 01
Warm Week With Increasing Rain Chances…
Highlights:
- Dry open to the work week
- Warming trend develops
- Turning more unsettled
Week Opens Dry; Ends Unsettled…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week. This will supply continued dry conditions along with a warming trend as our refreshing easterly flow transitions to the south.
This southerly air flow will help transport moisture northward as we progress into midweek and a “sluggish” front will begin to impact the area Wednesday evening into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and as the front meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend. Forecast models differ on the evolution of things over the weekend and result in the sensible weather conditions ranging from more widespread showers and embedded thunder to more of a “splash and dash” variety of rain coverage. We’ll fine tune things as we progress through the week.
Much cooler air is forecast to return just past the current 7-day forecast period.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″- 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-week-with-increasing-rain-chances/
Sep 29
A Note And Some Perspective On Next Week’s New Warm Surge…
After a cool, fall-like, weekend, we still expect a new surge of summer-like air to return next week as a strong (and expansive) ridge of high pressure “balloons” over the eastern half of the nation.
This will be enough to send temperatures into the 85° to 90° range by the early to middle of next week. To shed some perspective on that, our averages for early October include low temperatures in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s. For at least a couple of days next week, overnight lows will be much closer to where our afternoon highs should be this time of year.
There are differences on how modeling handles the evolution of things once past midweek. The European model has been jumping on a potential wet weather maker and much cooler trend in the medium term (late next week), but the GFS is having none of that- keeping us dry and hot. We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days and have a fresh 7-day soon!
Finally, we’re receiving many questions that are centered on whether or not the current overall warm pattern is an indication of what we can expect this winter. The simple and short answer to that question is an emphatic “no.” Transitional seasons are fickle, regardless of ENSO state. Throw in an emerging Nina and all sorts of additional “fun and games” ensue. With that said, there’s no direct correlation specifically between warm (or cold) patterns this time of year and the winter ahead. In fact, there’s been many instances where unseasonably warm Octobers give way to cold winters, and vice-versa.
More later! Make it a great Friday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-note-and-some-perspective-on-next-weeks-new-warm-surge/