Category: Unseasonably Warm

Dec 17

Mild And Relatively Quiet Week Before Cold Changes For Christmas…

Highlights:

  • Light showers later today
  • Mostly quiet weather week awaits
  • Much colder as Christmas nears

Sunday Showers…A weak weather system is approaching the state as we type this forecast update.  That system will deliver light showers through the afternoon hours, but this won’t be a major weather event by any stretch of the imagination- more of a nuisance than anything.

Our next “event” will come Tuesday night in the form of a dry frontal passage.  This will trend us cooler Wednesday, but still above seasonal norms.  Quiet times will persist with sunshine through midweek, allowing last minute shoppers (no finger pointing here :-)) to at least not have any weather worries as they finish checking off the list!

A more significant cold front will approach as we close the work week.  This will provide showers and gusty winds, followed by a colder feel late in the day.

Looking ahead towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, confidence continues to remain high on a much colder pattern taking hold.  However, it’s purely speculative at this point whether we’ll be enjoying “white” for the big day.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-and-relatively-quiet-week-before-cold-changes-for-christmas/

Dec 15

Unseasonably Pleasant Open To The Weekend…

Highlights:

  • “Can’t beat it” weather for mid-December
  • Raw second half of the weekend
  • Changes loom

Great Open To The Weekend…High pressure and a relatively mild southwest flow will help boost temperatures to near 50° Saturday afternoon, complete with plentiful sunshine.  We will note an increasingly gusty southwest breeze late in the day.

The second half of the weekend will feature an increasingly wet period, along with a “raw” feel.  Rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive, but rain gear will be required on the way out to church Sunday morning.

High pressure will quickly build back in thereafter and remain in control of our work week weather.  A nice stretch of pleasant conditions (by mid-December standards) will prevail, including plentiful sunshine.  Enjoy it as big changes loom.

The all-important Christmas-New Years period is growing ever closer and data continues to suggest we should gear up for busy times in the forecast office.  An active pattern looms, including one that will trend progressively colder.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-pleasant-open-to-the-weekend/

Dec 14

VIDEO: Latest Thoughts Around The Pattern As Christmas Nears…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-latest-thoughts-around-the-pattern-as-christmas-nears/

Dec 13

Weekend Moderation…

Highlights:

  • Northern IN snow
  • Weekend moderation
  • Showers early next week

Majority Of Snow To Our North, Northeast…A fast moving northwest flow will continue to zip upper air disturbances across the Plains into the Great Lakes and northeast.  As has been the case for the past week, central IN will remain too far south to benefit in the snow department from these systems.  A light shower is possible this afternoon with gusty winds followed by a couple of light snow showers this evening as the cold returns.  If your travels take you to north-central IN or into Ohio, you’ll be more likely to encounter slick roads.

A skinny lake effect snow band may set up shop overnight into early Thursday.  Unlike the past event, this would favor west-central parts of the state.

We’ll wrap up the work week on a mostly dry note and that theme will continue as we open the weekend.  A milder southwest push of air will send temperatures to slightly above average levels this weekend and we’ll introduce showers into our forecast early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-moderation/

Dec 12

Tuesday Evening Rambles: Wintry Weather And More Christmas Week Chatter…

I.) The pattern we’re currently dealing with is one that presents multiple challenges in the near term.  East-central and northeastern portions of the state have gotten in on the snow act today, but, so far, most of central Indiana has missed out on the snowy goods. With such a fast-paced northwest flow, we have to remain on guard for potential “surprises” in this pattern.  Perhaps the HRRR is beginning to pick up on this.  Latest runs want to deliver a “pop” of snow Wednesday morning, associated with “warm” air advection (WAA).  We’ll monitor tonight.

9a forecast radar Wednesday

II.  The northwest flow will continue to provide disturbances plenty capable of producing periods of snow again Wednesday evening through the end of the week.  Are these monster storms?  Hardly, but they can “suddenly” become sufficient enough to create travel problems given the pattern.  For those who live across the northern half of the state, plan to keep close tabs to local forecasts if you have travel plans through the end of the week.

III.  A period of brief moderation will come in this pattern early Christmas week, but all eyes continue to focus on the period between December 22nd through December 26th for the potential of impactful weather across our region.  For model “worshipers” out there, we suggest paying more attention to overall trends, and a blend of ensemble data, as opposed to specifics associated with operational runs.  It’s a “jailbreak” pattern of sorts as true arctic air will be pouring down the Plains while the southeastern ridge tries to fight for a time.  The resistance from the southeastern ridge and associated tight thermal gradient should promote a very stormy regime for the interior (Ohio Valley into the interior northeast) as we head into the true holiday/ Christmas stretch.  As of now, we favor the idea of multiple waves along the pressing arctic boundary, as opposed to one big storm.  Looking back through the records shows some of the heaviest snows at IND have come from similar set-ups.  Understanding each set-up is unique, the overall pattern does have to raise an eye brow for potential of wintry weather in, or around, our region as Christmas approaches…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-rambles-wintry-weather-and-more-christmas-week-chatter/