Category Archives: Unseasonably Warm

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 06.06.21 @ 8:28a

The upper pattern this week will feature a dominant upper ridge across the northern tier, centered over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a stubborn upper low will move slowly northeast out of the southern Plains early and mid week.
The immediate western seaboard will run below to well below normal this week, while the upper Plains into the Great Lakes run well above average.
Well above normal rainfall can be expected through the period across the Ohio Valley, TN Valley, and Mid Atlantic regions.
We forecast between 1.5″ and 2″ on a widespread basis across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier amounts with this setup.

Forecast Period: 06.06.21 through 06.13.21

Our weather pattern will be dominated by a stubborn upper low moving slowly northeast out of the southern Plains. Eventually, this upper low will get entangled in the westerlies and begin to lose influence on our weather towards the tail end of the week. Before that, we’ll notice a rather marked difference in the type of airmass this week compared to what we’ve seen of late. A deep tropical flow, straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, will bring moisture-rich air into the Ohio Valley, including dew points that will approach the oppressive level (65° to 70°). While daytime highs will be kept cooler with the clouds and rain around, overnight lows will be elevated with such a humid airmass in place. A daily dose of showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this pattern- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the humidity, locally heavy rain is a good bet at times. While coverage of showers and storms should slowly begin to diminish towards Friday and Saturday, we’ll still keep mention of scattered storms in our forecast into next weekend.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Warm

June 2021 Outlook…

Updated 05.31.21 @ 9a

With the exception of the far Southwest and Northeast, May 2021 has been a relatively cool month, overall:

More closely to home, May featured “haves and have nots” in the precipitation department. Officially, (as of 5/30), Indianapolis is running more than 2.6° below normal on the month and 1.03″ below normal in the precipitation department.

As we look to June, the first week, overall, should open with slightly below normal temperatures, but there are changes in the offing that will promote significant warming in the Week 2 time frame (June 7-14). Note how the trough providing the cooler air in the immediate term is replaced with the expanding ridge over the Great Lakes.

This should provide us a shot to touch the 90° mark during the aforementioned period at least on a couple of days. Regardless, we can expect rising humidity levels and a more summer-like feel. (I suppose that’s appropriate here on the first day of the unofficial start of summer).

Longer term, we need to keep close tabs on the MJO. Longer range data suggests the amplitude we’ve seen as of late will collapse.

A big drop negative in the PNA will promote the Week 2 heat that we mentioned above. Thereafter, it appears as if the PNA will want to rebound closer to neutral (heat shouldn’t hold).

As a whole, we believe the drought-stricken West will be the breeding ground for big time heat while things are much more transitional across the East (leading to near seasonal temperatures. As for precipitation, we’re expecting a wetter pattern to emerge for the Deep South, TN Valley, and into the eastern Ohio Valley in the month ahead. Meanwhile, the already dry ground across the West is likely to only worsen, unfortunately.

For perspective, averages for the month of June here in central Indiana include highs in the lower 80s (82.0° at IND), lows in the lower 60s (62.9° at IND), and nearly 5″ (4.95″ at IND) of rain.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Monthly Outlook, PNA, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm