Jul 24
After a pleasant Friday (sky conditions, temperatures, and humidity levels), we’ll begin to flip the script to a stormy one late Friday night and off and on over the weekend.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/24/stormy-weekend-on-deck/
Jun 25
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We’ll notice a less humid feel to the air today and Thursday, but we can’t completely eliminate rain chances either day. This afternoon and evening will feature better coverage of widely scattered thunderstorms when compared to Thursday. Most will remain rain-free Thursday, but an isolated storm can’t be ruled out. Heat and humidity returns over the weekend into the first half of the short work week ahead. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return, as well. Just beyond the forecast period above, a potential stormy set up looms leading up to Independence Day with thunderstorms followed by a cool down. More on this in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/25/overall-drier-but-rain-chances-remain/
Jun 24
The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week. That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.
In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods. This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.
In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far. Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.
There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.
The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.
The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead. Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3. Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.
To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +. The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling. We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/17/focusing-on-wednesday-evening-severe-potential/
Jun 17
We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning. Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy? Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm. Note the snow depth on the fence line. Amazing stuff!
Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.
Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period. The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.
This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.
The PSD shows the changes, as well. Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.
The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet. Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days. Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/17/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/
Jun 17
Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. 70/ 90 71/ 89 71/ 89 70/ 86 70/ 86 70/ 84 67/ 80 – –…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/17/hot-and-humid/
Jun 16
Quick video update tonight discusses some of our thoughts as we progress through the week ahead!
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/16/monday-evening-video-update-feeling-very-much-like-summer/
Jun 16
Walking out the door this morning feels dramatically different than what we’ve enjoyed over the weekend! Not only are humidity levels much higher, but temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer than what they were this time 24 hours ago across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
With the increased warmth and humidity, it’s not going to take much to kick scattered showers and thunderstorms off. That’s exactly what we’re seeing across central Indiana this morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible under any of the stronger storms.
Look at the Northeast region radar snapped at 8am, courtesy of the Penn State e-wall site:
As for precipitation amounts, it still appears as if we’re in a wetter than normal regime over the next couple weeks. As of this morning, we’re officially running 1.56″ above normal at IND year-to-date. A look over a blend of GFS, Euro, and Canadian would imply widespread 2-3″ amounts over the upcoming two weeks, with locally heavier totals where local downpours occur. This is NOT what one wanting a hot pattern to lock in wants to hear.
While warmth and humidity will be the story this week, we still think we turn cooler to wrap up June. We’ve been talking about a cooler than normal pattern developing for late month and latest guidance continues to suggest that thinking has merit. Much more later! BTW- your 7-day forecast can be found here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/16/monday-morning-weather-rambles-2/
Jun 15
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. 68/ 85 70/ 89 71/ 90 70/ 89 71/ 85 68/ 86 67/ 84 Light –…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/15/very-humid-splash-and-dash-storms/
Jun 14
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Normal lows and highs for mid June are in the lower 60s and lower 80s, respectfully. Once again today, temperatures will remain well below average. Many communities outside of the circle dipped into the 40s this morning- officially 46 this morning here at IndyWx.com HQ. Highs today will only reach the middle 70s under a mostly sunny sky with a light north breeze. Get outside and enjoy every minute of it! (BTW- does this weather have anyone else craving college football season)? In looking ahead, it’s a good thing we’re able to get the AC a break for a few days, because we still anticipate the heat and humidity to really crank next week. While Father’s Day will get off to another refreshing start, humidity will build during the afternoon and evening, and really set the tone for the week ahead- hot and humid! We’ll monitor the chances of a couple complexes of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night through Tuesday and again Thursday through Friday, but it won’t rain the entire period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/14/beautiful-weekend-underway/
