Updated 02.13.22 @ 2:25p
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Updated 02.13.22 @ 7:42a
Only a couple weeks “officially” remain in meteorological winter. Perhaps it’s appropriate that the pattern is hinting at a vastly different look in the 10-15 day period (much warmer), and for good reason:
Perfect alignment between the MJO and teleconnections.
The MJO is forecast into Phase 4 as we put a wrap on February. Analogs show the eastern ridge that typically takes up residence in Phase 4.
All of the primary teleconnections (including the NAO- remember it’s now time to start keying in on the NAO) are in phases that also argue for above average temperatures.
To no surprise, modeling sees a warm, wet (compared to normal, of course) stretch ahead to close February and open March.
European ensemble
GFS ensemble
Given the blue print laid out above, I’d personally lean more towards the GFS solution (more widespread above normal conditions) over the Euro.
Updated 02.11.22 @ 7:39a
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Updated 02.10.22 @ 7:27a
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Updated 02.08.22 @ 7:09a
After an unseasonably mild December the pattern flipped in January. Indianapolis finished the first month of 2022 down 3° from normal. Add in a hefty winter storm last week and the narrative this winter has changed significantly from how things opened up.
The coming couple of weeks will feature some ups and downs but will balance out colder than normal.
Where we go thereafter is an interesting question. Teleconnections shout it’s time to think spring. However, the MJO says we may want to “tap the brakes” on the spring chatter- at least until the last week of February.
After heading into the chilly Phase 3, we’ll round the turn into a milder Phase 4 late month.
The call here remains unchanged: cold dominates through the medium range (from an overall standpoint, thanks to the MJO) before a flip in the regime and a milder than average pattern to close out the month.