Category: Unseasonably Warm

Weekend Inversion…

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Highlights:

  • Weekend Inversion
  • Early Week Storm System
  • Keeping Close Eyes On Next Weekend

Gloomy Weekend…Forecast models continue to suggest we deal with an inversion though the weekend and this will keep low clouds hanging tough along with areas of fog (be careful tonight into Saturday morning for areas of freezing fog).  The warmer air is moving in aloft, but at the surface cold air remains hard to budge this weekend.  Just think…if we could shake the low clouds and fog, temperatures would have no problem climbing well into the middle and upper 50s.  Instead we forecast lower and middle 40s Saturday and upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday.  Again, low clouds and areas of fog will hang tough, along with patchy drizzle.

Early Week Storm System…An area of low pressure will “bowl” across the middle of the country and result in developing showers late Monday, continuing into Tuesday.  Temperatures will be too mild to support anything other than rain with our Monday-Tuesday system.

Colder; Eyeing Next Weekend…We’ll see a return of below normal cold for the second half of next week.  Forecast models differ on Thursday’s solution and vary from a cold, dry day to one that features mixed rain and snow.  For now, we’ll side with the dry theme for now, but suggest staying tune.  A more “interesting” system awaits next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/12/weekend-inversion/

“Dirty” High In Control…

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Dirty High…High pressure is in control of our weather, but this is what we call a “dirty high” as low clouds will remain today along with a couple light flurries, particularly across western parts of the state.  Temperatures will remain colder than average.

Sunshine will finally begin to increase as we go into the latter portion of the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures closer to seasonal levels.

Tricky Weekend…The upper air pattern this weekend will feature a building ridge across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and signal milder days ahead.  Taken at face value one would anticipate temperatures well into the 50s and flirting with 60, but there will likely be an “inversion” that develops over the weekend which will lead to lots of clouds, drizzle, and cooler temperatures that what we’d expect without this inversion.  As such, we’re forecasting increasing clouds Saturday and considerable cloudiness with areas of drizzle Sunday.  Temperatures, though milder than normal, won’t reach levels they could in this type pattern without the inversion.

Early Week Storm System…Our next storm system will arrive late Monday into Tuesday with light rain and colder air returning for the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/10/dirty-high-in-control/

A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

December so far has been a battle between the cold northern tier and warmth south. The so-called “battle zone” has been located over our neck of the woods and lead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/09/a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going-4/

Colder Air Moving In…

Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon.               33/ 39 29/ 35 28/ 38 28/ 42 32/ 49 34/ 52 40/ 54  Mixed Rain/…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/08/colder-air-moving-in/

Short-term Cold; Mid-range Warm…

There’s been a ton of conversation as of late about where this overall weather pattern is heading.  Perhaps it’s the Christmas season that brings out the conversation as everyone is hoping for that cold pattern to provide a White Christmas.

While in the short-term cold will continue to dominate, we’re becoming increasingly confident of an unseasonably mild stretch of air in the mid-range period.  That’ll take us up to the week before Christmas…

In the short-term, the positive PNA will continue to be the primary driver in our pattern.  This will ensure a colder east through the majority of week 1 (through next Friday).

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A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.

A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.

Modeling sees the cool east in week 1 and warm west- typical of a positive PNA pattern:

gefs_t2anom_by5_conus_29

There are changes in the mid-range period that’ll have lovers of winter and cold frowning.  Many of our long-term readers know how we use the “typhoon rule” as a good indication of what we can expect across our region 6-10 days down the road.  As stated multiple times in the past (want to give credit where credit is due), we learned this from the great Joe Bastardi.  For those that are new here, I’ll describe this very briefly (you can read through the archives, if you’d like, for a longer/ more detailed description).  Typically when you have a recurving typhoon in the WPAC, that suggests a trough (colder pattern) across the central and eastern Lower 48.  On the flip side, when you have a westward moving typhoon, that’s a good indication of eastern ridging (warmer pattern).

Courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Super Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to move on a general westward trajectory.

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This is a very good sign of a much milder than normal period in the mid-range (days 8-12).  Modeling, in return, is going towards a warm pattern (associated ridge) week 2:

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The GFS ensembles and NAEFS agree on the warmth and given what we’ve discussed above, so do we:

2014120412_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186

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In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us to see high temperatures in the 55-60 degree range during a day or two week 2.

Really quick and before we end- lovers of winter weather, there’s absolutely NO reason to throw in the towel.  In fact, indications in the long range suggest the trough collapses into the east during the week leading up to Christmas and that could provide for all sorts of wintry “mischief” when almost all of folks are wanting snow…

Much more on that in the days ahead.  Have a great night!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/04/short-term-cold-mid-range-warm/

Another Bout Of Rush Hour Wintry Mix; Longer Range Talk…

We think we’re dealing with another round of light freezing drizzle and a wintry mix for the Thursday morning commute.  Plan to allow extra travel time.

Forecast radar Thursday morning suggests freezing drizzle and a light wintry mix is in play across central Indiana.

Forecast radar Thursday morning suggests freezing drizzle and a light wintry mix is in play across central Indiana.

There’s some longer term data that’s in stark contrast from what a positive PNA should produce (yet alone a strong positive PNA).  Typical positive PNA pattern should promote an eastern trough and associated colder than normal pattern as drawn below:

PositivePNA

Needless to say, we disagree strongly with the NAEFS and GFS ensembles:

2014120312_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186

Regardless, the future will tell!  

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/03/another-bout-of-rush-hour-wintry-mix-longer-range-talk/

Warm And Windy For Colts Vs. Redskins…

Colts v. Redskins Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

11.30.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  A strong southwesterly air flow is creating windy conditions for tailgating this morning, but the upside is that temperatures are in the lower 60s!  A cold front has it’s eyes set on the region and will arrive this afternoon and evening.  This will lead to better afternoon rain chances and a MUCH colder feel as we progress through the evening.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long!  Go Colts!

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Mostly Cloudy Scattered Showers Showers
Temp: 61-64 Temp: 61 Temp:  60
Wind:  SW 20-30 MPH Wind: SW 20-30 MPH Wind:  SE 20-30 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.05”  Precip:  0.05”
Scattered showers will arrive around kickoff, but heavier showers should hold off until the cold front moves in later this evening, per this forecast radar image.

Scattered showers will arrive around kickoff, but heavier showers should hold off until the cold front moves in later this evening, per this forecast radar image.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/30/warm-and-windy-for-colts-vs-redskins/

Iron Bowl Saturday Weather Update…

Happy Iron Bowl Day and War Eagle!  This afternoon’s video discusses the rest of the weekend and looks ahead to next week’s busy weather pattern.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/29/iron-bowl-saturday-weather-update/

Briefly Milder This Weekend, But Rain Chances Included…

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Milder Air, But Rain Chances Increase…Many will welcome a milder southwesterly air flow this weekend.  While this will serve to help give temperatures a significant boost from what we’ve dealt with practically the whole month of November, it’ll also provide increasingly cloudy skies and the chance of sprinkles/ light rain showers by afternoon and evening.

Sunday will be even milder as highs reach towards the 60 degree mark.  A cold front will approach the area Sunday afternoon and evening and provide a better chance of showers and colder air to open the new work week.

Have The Dramamine Handy…We’re in the beginning stages of a pattern change that’ll promote at least “attempts” of milder air in the coming 7-10 days.  That said, cold highs will remain across the northern tier and present challenges in both the temperature forecast, but also precipitation timing in the back half of this forecast period.  In the longer term we want to be very clear that signals suggest mid and late December feature a cold and wintry pattern returning.

As we move into the mid and late week stretch plan for possible changes.  There are challenges that abound, but for now our best meteorological take will feature increasing clouds Wednesday with light showers arriving by evening.  This would be followed by steadier rains Thursday before drier and colder air returns to wrap up the work week.  Stay tuned; it’s a tough pattern, as is usually the case during the transitional seasons.

News And Notes: Bill will be on WIBC with Ray Steele this morning around 7:30.  Be sure and tune in to hear a little weather chit-chat and a lot of talk about tonight’s Iron Bowl… War Eagle!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/28/briefly-milder-this-weekend-but-rain-chances-included/

Catching Up And Looking Ahead…

From the IndyWx.com family to yours, we wish you a very happy Thanksgiving! Thank you for taking the time to read our content daily and for all of your support…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/27/catching-up-and-looking-ahead/

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