Category: Unseasonably Warm

May 12

Cool And Dry Through Thursday; Weekend Changes…

The story through Thursday will be one summed up in two words: dry and cool!  High pressure will supply beautiful weather as we head into the latter portion of the work week.  (May be a good couple days to use some of that PTO :-))!

Temperatures both tomorrow morning and Thursday morning will fall into the 40s.  In fact, some neighborhoods away from the city, itself, may fall to between 38-39 just before sunrise Wednesday.  Unlike today, afternoon cloudiness won’t be an issue and winds will be much lighter.

Changes will ensue as we progress into the weekend thanks to our air flow shifting around to a more southerly and southwesterly direction.  This will pull increasingly humid air northward and we’ll introduce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into the central IN weather picture Friday afternoon, continuing through the weekend.

1It should be noted, however, that modeling today isn’t nearly as wet and stormy as previous runs.  Will this be proven to be an anomaly, or is the drier trend the correct solution?  We’ll give it a couple more runs before taking things at face value, but feel confident in saying that while scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the picture, many more dry hours can be expected as opposed to wet and stormy.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/12/cool-and-dry-through-thursday-weekend-changes/

May 11

A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 8.51.04 PMHighlights:

  • Much cooler and drier through Thursday
  • Moisture increases this weekend
  • Stormy early next week

A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this.  That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return.  High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend.  Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.

hrrr_t2m_indy_14A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning.  Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_9High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_16A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley.  Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.

cmc_total_precip_indy_33After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week.  Localized torrential downpours are likely.  Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/11/a-much-cooler-drier-trend/

May 10

Sunday Morning Thoughts…

First and foremost, here’s wishing a very happy Mother’s Day to all of the moms out there! May has gotten off to a much warmer and drier than normal start. …

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/10/sunday-morning-thoughts/

May 09

Lots Of Dry Time This Weekend, But Scattered Storms Will Be Around…

Screen Shot 2015-05-09 at 10.38.36 AMHighlights:

  • More dry time than not this weekend
  • Strong storm potential Monday
  • Cooler and much drier air moves in Monday night

The region remains in a very warm and moist air mass this weekend and this could help promote a scattered shower or thunderstorm really at any point over the next couple of days.  That said, best concentration of rain and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.  All-in-all, the weekend will feature many more dry hours than not.  A final push of showers and thunderstorms will blow through Monday and some of these could reach strong to severe levels.  We’ll keep a close eye out.  A much cooler and drier air mass arrives Monday night and that will carry us through Thursday.

hrrr_ref_indy_10Most of today will be dry, but forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) suggests showers and thunderstorms build into central IN this afternoon and evening.  Plan on taking rain gear with you if you have outdoor plans and have a means of getting inside should a storm be nearby.

day3otlk_0730The SPC has highlighted a large portion of the Ohio Valley for the threat of severe weather Monday.  Large hail and damaging winds appear to be of greatest concern at this time.  While this doesn’t look like a significant widespread severe weather outbreak for our immediate region, let’s remember it only takes one severe storm impacting a community to be significant in that particular neighborhood.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/09/lots-of-dry-time-this-weekend-but-scattered-storms-will-be-around/

May 08

Friday Morning Rambles…

  May has gotten off to a warm (dare I say hot?) start. The past couple days have felt more like July than May with mid to upper 80s commonplace.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/08/friday-morning-rambles/

May 06

Summer-like Turns Much Cooler Next Week; Storms In Between…

Screen Shot 2015-05-06 at 10.29.34 PMHighlights:

  • Feeling like summer
  • Storm chances ramp up going into the weekend
  • Best chances of widespread rain arrives Monday
  • Much cooler next week

As we get set to put a wrap on another busy work week, near record warmth is the big weather story.  Those unseasonably warm conditions we’ve dealt with over the past few days will continue into the weekend, but we’ll also add rain and storm chances.  Coverage of thunderstorms will be categorized as “isolated” Friday, “scattered” Saturday and Sunday, and “widespread” Monday.  As moisture continues to surge into the region, locally heavy downpours can be expected, and a downright muggy feel.  A severe storm is certainly possible, but the more widespread severe outbreak will remain to our west across the central Plains region.  Much cooler air will pour into the region behind a Monday night frontal passage.

2As we type this (around 10p Wednesday evening), temperatures are still in the middle 70s and a whopping 15-20 degrees above average this hour across the area.

1Think it’s humid now?  Just wait until the weekend.  A strong southwest flow will pull moisture-rich air northward, courtesy of a Gulf of Mexico connection.  Dew points will approach 70 degrees across many southern and central IN communities and help fuel locally heavy rainfall with any storm that develops Friday night through Monday.

3A MUCH cooler air mass will filter into the region behind the cold frontal passage Monday night/ early Tuesday.  After a week of summer-like heat, upper 50s for highs will feel downright chilly.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/06/summer-like-turns-much-cooler-next-week-storms-in-between/

May 04

Monday Evening Catch Up…

It’s been a very busy day and I apologize for the late post. Storms this evening reached severe limits north of the city. In particular, Boone County was hard hit,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/04/monday-evening-catch-up/

May 03

Warm Temperatures & Increasing Humidity…

Screen Shot 2015-05-03 at 8.41.38 PMHighlights:

  • Widely scattered storms Monday
  • Very warm with increasing humidity this week
  • Weekend storms

1Forecast radar (above), courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows showers and thunderstorms pressing into the state early Monday morning.  This is all part of a frontal boundary that will slip into northern IN Monday before stalling through the mid week stretch.  Most widespread coverage of showers and storms will be confined to northern portions of the state, but we’ll also include a mention of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for central IN Monday.  Traveling north this week?  Plan on better rain chances as compared to that we’ll see.

The majority of the upcoming work week will feature dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures.  A prolonged southerly and southwesterly air flow will provide an increasingly muggy feel to the air this week.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will roll in over the weekend thanks to an approaching storm system.

3The majority of our mid to long range forecast data suggests the warm pattern we’ve enjoyed to kick off May will continue deep into the month.  Ensemble guidance (above) shows a snap shot of temperature anomalies through the 19th of May.  As you can see, temperatures will be significantly above normal through the first ten days, or so, of the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/03/warm-temperatures-increasing-humidity/

Apr 29

Cool And Showery Thursday; Full-Blown Spring Warmth Ahead!

Screen Shot 2015-04-29 at 10.22.29 PMHighlights:

  • Scattered showers; unseasonably cool today
  • Brighter; warmer days ahead
  • Questions next week in regards to rain/ storm potential

A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday.  This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day.  Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place.  This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.

We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy.  As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

1Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley.  Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system.  Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.

2Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region.  Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above.  That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times.  Stay tuned.

3Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks.  Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.

4

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/29/cool-and-showery-thursday-full-blown-spring-warmth-ahead/

Apr 28

Thursday “Bump In The Road” En-route To A Warmer Regime…

Screen Shot 2015-04-28 at 9.50.15 PMHighlights:

  • Increasing late day clouds and Thursday showers
  • Warmer days going into the weekend and early next week
  • Stormy at times early next week

Wednesday will get off to a chilly start, but we’ll be several degrees warmer than recent mornings.  We should see enough sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower to middle 60s before clouds increase and thicken by evening.  This is in association with an upper level low that will track over the region Thursday.  This UL will serve up scattered showers Thursday (0.10″ – 0.25″ rain potential in spots) and it’ll be another unseasonably cool day.

Brighter days are ahead as we progress into the weekend with increasing sunshine Friday and continuing Saturday.

Moisture will increase Sunday into Monday as our wind flow backs around to the southwest. This will pull increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley and we’ll watch for a couple of disturbances to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The big story next week will be a much warmer pattern.

1After a dry Wednesday, forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows showers building into central IN Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  It won’t rain the entire day Thursday, but scattered showers will dot the landscape at times.  As mentioned above, rainfall totals will be light.  It’ll be a cool day (mid to upper 50s for highs as shown below) with showers, clouds, and a gusty north wind in play.

2Our air flow will back to the southwest and help transport a more humid brand of air into the region early next week.  This warmer, moist air mass will likely be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

3

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/28/thursday-bump-in-the-road-en-route-to-a-warmer-regime/

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