Category: Unseasonably Warm

Jun 06

Afternoon Storms Ahead Of A Much Cooler Push Of Air…

Screen Shot 2016-06-06 at 9.28.56 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered PM storms
  • Turning much cooler
  • Heat builds this weekend

Turning Much Cooler…The sunny start to the work week will give way to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a boundary slips through the region.  While widespread severe weather isn’t expected, don’t be surprised if a couple storms require warnings later today.

A much cooler air mass will press into central IN tonight and set up a refreshing feel through the middle portions of the work week.  We’ll take lows around 50 and highs around 70 any day of the week this time of year!

As we progress into the weekend, the hottest air of the season so far will build in.  We expect lower 90s for highs and this hot surge could initially be accompanied by thunderstorms Friday.  It’ll be quite oppressive as dew points zoom to around 70.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/06/afternoon-storms-ahead-of-a-much-cooler-push-of-air/

Jun 05

Turning Less Humid Today; Much Cooler Mid Week…

Screen Shot 2016-06-05 at 10.10.56 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered PM shower/ storm threat through early week
  • Cool, sunny mid week
  • Heat cranks next weekend

Turning Cooler By Midweek…After a significant rain event (on average 0.75″-1.4″ fell across central IN) Saturday, we’re starting our Sunday morning off with partly-mostly cloudy skies.  A much less humid brand of air will build in today, but we can’t completely shake the rain chances.  A scattered afternoon shower is possible.

Reinforcing cooler air will move in Monday and the associated boundary will likely do a better job kicking off scattered shower and thunderstorm activity as it moves through the region.

We’ll turn much cooler and refreshing for mid week, along with lots of sunshine and dry conditions.  As you’d imagine, the refreshing air doesn’t last long this time of year and a SW flow will help temperatures and moisture levels surge to close the work week.  The hottest air of the year so far is slated for next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/05/turning-less-humid-today-much-cooler-mid-week/

May 28

Race/ Memorial Day Weekend Video Update…

A quick update on our thinking for this evening, continuing into Race Day!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/28/race-memorial-day-weekend-video-update/

May 28

Better Chance Of Afternoon/ Evening Storms Today; Big Cool Down Looming…

Screen Shot 2016-05-28 at 7.59.13 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered PM storms fire up
  • Warm, humid, but mostly dry race day and Memorial Day
  • Big cool down looming

Better Coverage Of PM Storms…A warm, humid, and increasingly unstable air mass will be present today.  Throw in a couple weak upper level disturbances lifting through the region and we should see a better coverage of afternoon/ evening thunderstorm activity when compared to the past couple days.  Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Thankfully, aerial coverage of showers and storms will diminish Sunday and Memorial Day, itself.  We’ll maintain mention of an isolated to widely scattered storm.  Conditions will remain warm and humid.

Our next best chance of rain and storms will push in Thursday.  This is in association with a cold front.  Behind this cold front, expect a big push of refreshing, unseasonably cool air to blow into town to close the work week.  Temperatures grow cooler next weekend (lows at night in the 40s are possible).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/28/better-chance-of-afternoon-evening-storms-today-big-cool-down-looming/

May 26

Warm And Humid; More Dry Time Than Stormy…

Screen Shot 2016-05-26 at 8.56.28 PMHighlights:

  • Scattered storms into the weekend
  • Isolated storm coverage Sunday-Monday, but drier overall
  • Scattered storms return mid week

Not A Bad Forecast…The overall theme with tonight’s forecast package is warm and humid.  While scattered thunderstorms will remain in our forecast Friday and Saturday, overall coverage of thunderstorm activity will diminish Sunday-Monday (isolated coverage both days).  From this distance, the Indy 500 weather looks nice- just an isolated storm threat and quite warm.  Widespread rain totals should remain below half an inch through the weekend, but we caution that locally heavier totals will certainly be possible (though it’s impossible to be precise where exactly those heavier showers and storms track).

Drier times will greet us as we return to work Tuesday, but we’ll be eyeing an approaching late week cold front by this time.  This front will present our next chance of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, along with a transition to a much cooler air mass just beyond the forecast period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/26/warm-and-humid-more-dry-time-than-stormy/

May 25

Indy 500 And Memorial Day Weekend Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/25/indy-500-and-memorial-day-weekend-video-update/

May 24

Turning Much More Humid…

Screen Shot 2016-05-24 at 9.16.34 PMHighlights:

  • Oppressive feel develops
  • Scattered storms to close the week
  • Less storm coverage for the 500 and Memorial Day

Ready To Sweat?  A much more humid and oppressive feel will develop Wednesday (dew points likely surge to 70 by afternoon).  Along with the muggy air mass, we expect scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop.  We’ll maintain mention of scattered storms into the weekend, but want to stress that these won’t be uniform in the least.  That said, with all of the moisture in the air, stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.

We continue to keep a close eye on the data for Sunday and Monday.  Thankfully, latest indications suggest we see an overall decrease in aerial coverage of showers and storms both days.  We’ll call it “isolated” for now.  It’ll be plenty hot and humid.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/24/turning-much-more-humid/

May 23

Not As Bad As It May Look…

Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 6.48.20 PMHighlights:

  • Dry feel turns much more humid
  • Splash and dash storms, but many dry hours
  • Warm, humid Memorial Day/ Race weekend

One More Dry Day…High pressure is scooting away from the region, but will remain close enough to supply central IN with dry conditions Tuesday.  Though warm, we’ll enjoy one more day with dry air in place.

A SW wind shift will deliver an increasingly moist air mass for mid week, continuing into the long holiday and race weekend ahead.  In fact, dew points will surge to readings around 70 (downright oppressive).  While there will be times of scattered showers and thunderstorms, there will also be many dry hours, as well.  We continue to keep an eye on Wednesday for the potential of a strong to severe storm.

As we continue to grow closer to the holiday and race weekend, questions continue to increase around the forecast specifics, and rightfully so.  While we need to be prepared for an afternoon/ evening storm, these will be scattered and there will be “haves and have nots” when it comes to storm/ rain activity over the balance of the upcoming forecast period.  Again, we want to emphasize there should be plenty of dry time.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/23/not-as-bad-as-it-may-look/

May 22

Feeling Like Summer…

Screen Shot 2016-05-22 at 8.27.39 AMHighlights:

  • Dry open to the week
  • Warming up and turning humid
  • Storm chances mid week on

Beautiful Open To The Week…High pressure and a dry air mass will result in lots of sunshine to open the week.  After a chilly first few weeks of May, we’ll see improvements in the mercury this week.  A dry air mass will still result in cool overnight lows through Tuesday morning, but we’ll shift to a much more humid regime for mid and late week.  Additionally, temperatures will continue to climb into the lower 80s for highs.  Prepare to sweat.

The increased moisture and an approaching frontal boundary will help ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  We also have a close eye on Wednesday for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms.  While it won’t rain the entire time, prepare for “splash and dash” showers and storms into the important Memorial Day/ Indy 500 weekend…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/22/feeling-like-summer-3/

May 21

Busy Week Ahead Turns Active In The Weather Department…

After a damp and chilly open to the weekend, drier air began to infiltrate the region this afternoon and led to a brighter/ warmer finish to the day.  We’ll add more sunshine and tack on a few degrees to the afternoon high on Sunday.  It’ll be a phenomenal weather day across central IN, thanks to high pressure.  Get out and enjoy it!

HighPDry and sunny weather will greet us to open the new work week, along with temperatures that will approach the 80 degree mark by Tuesday.  Have yard work to get caught up on?  Take advantage of the early week weather.

Things will begin to change towards an unsettled regime as early as Tuesday evening/ Wednesday as the region gets into an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow.

SWFlowAs such, we’ll increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms in our mid week forecast.  It’ll also be a much more humid feel of things (really for the first time this year) as surface dew points surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s.  (In other words, “oppressive”).

DPFactor in PWATs (precipitable water values) zooming to 1.5″-1.8″ and the threat is there for localized heavy downpours around mid week.

gfs_pwat_noram2_19Additionally, we also note the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western sections of our forecast area in a risk of severe weather Wednesday.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

day5probAs we progress into the late week period and on into the long holiday/ race weekend, a warm, humid, and unsettled time of things is expected to continue.  It’s tough to pinpoint specifics from this distance, but just keep note of the threat of thunderstorms into and through the upcoming busy weekend, along with warm (highs in the lower to middle 80s; lows in the upper 60s) and humid conditions.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/21/busy-week-ahead-turns-active-in-the-weather-department/

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