Highlights:
- Moderating temperatures
- Not impressed with rain amounts with our front
- Much cooler weekend
Lots Of Sunshine; Significantly Cooler Weekend…In the short-term, high pressure will supply central IN with a beautiful Tuesday, complete with pleasant conditions and lots of sunshine.
Moisture will begin to return Wednesday with an increasingly moist feel to the air mass as the day progresses. An isolated shower is possible, especially across western portions of the state, but most of the region should remain rain-free.
Our next opportunity of rain comes Friday as a cold front moves in to close the work week. As of now, we’re not impressed with rainfall amounts as the front crosses the state. Our wind will shift to the NW and turn gusty Saturday with much cooler air pouring into the region. A nice cool, crisp, autumn weekend awaits. The season’s coolest air thus far will greet us over the weekend.
In the tropics, Hurricane Matthew remains at the forefront. Those who live along the East Coast (from the FL peninsula all the way up the eastern seaboard) should keep a close eye on forecasts and data over the next few days.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.
A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.
The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition. Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals. As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.
Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler. Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September. Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.
The warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.
The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.
Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.
In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.
The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.
In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.
As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.
