Jan 13
1.) While we’re still expecting freezing rain across central Indiana tonight into the early morning hours Saturday, dry air will really limit totals. Instead of the 0.10″-0.20″ of glaze per…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/13/quick-friday-evening-notes/
Jan 12
Highlights:
Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.
The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.
We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.
Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/12/weekend-ice-and-heavy-rain-next-week/
Jan 10
Highlights:
Sunglasses NOT Required…We’re entering the beginning of an active stretch of weather, with an extended period of overcast skies and gloomy conditions. Let’s dive in and take the challenges one-by-one:
Showers develop this afternoon as a cold front moves into the state. Ahead of the front, strong southwest winds will gust upwards of 45 MPH+. A “big hair warning” is in effect. 🙂
A brief shot of colder air will arrive late tonight into Wednesday, but just as soon as it arrives, it’ll leave and temperatures will approach 60 Wednesday night as showers return.
Thursday will be a wet day with periods of rain and slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon/ evening.
Friday is much colder as the arctic front will be to our south, but most of the day looks dry. Moisture will lift north Friday afternoon and evening and with cold air in place, the precipitation should take the form of a mixture of freezing rain and sleet. Periods of freezing rain likely continue Saturday. It’s far too early to discuss amounts and we also want to reiterate the difference of 1-2 degrees will mean a world of difference between areas dealing with ice versus a cold rain. The “battle zone” looks to take place across central IN. If you have travel plans Friday night and Saturday, please keep abreast of later forecasts and updates.
Regardless of whether or not we’re dealing with icy conditions across central IN during the first half of the weekend, temperatures will warm during the second half of the weekend and change any frozen/ freezing precipitation over to plain ole cold rain Sunday into Monday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/10/prolonged-stretch-of-gloomy-weather/
Jan 09
Highlights:
Feeling Downright Balmy Out…Temperatures this morning (writing this at 7a) are running close to 20 degrees above where we were this exact time Sunday. 20 degrees has never felt so warm! 🙂 This moderating trend will continue into mid week, including temperatures that approach 60 Thursday. That said, we have a mini “speed bump” to go over tonight and that’s the opportunity for light freezing rain late tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Temperatures should go above freezing just before the morning rush Tuesday, but plan to leave additional time as slick spots may remain. Once we clear the “speed bump,” it’s off to the races in the temperature department through mid week: around 50 Tuesday afternoon and around 60 by Thursday (that’s a late night high Wednesday in the upper 50s). Periods of showers will come with the milder air, centered on Tuesday and late Wednesday into Thursday.
Unfortunately, the milder times don’t last long and we still forecast “trouble” late in the week. The set-up remains unchanged as a big, sprawling arctic high pushes into Wisconsin Friday. This will help “shove” the arctic front through Indiana before stalling along the Ohio River Friday into Saturday. As this is happening, ripples of energy will help ignite periods of precipitation Friday into the weekend. With cold air locked in at the surface, we expect the potential of a rather prolonged period of freezing rain developing late Friday and continuing into the weekend. We still have time for things to change, but from this distance, the predominant precipitation type, unfortunately, appears to be freezing rain. Stay tuned as this could be a high impact event.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/09/busy-weather-week-ice-storm-potential-friday-into-the-weekend/
Jan 08
Highlights:
Bitter Cold Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures…The first half of the forecast period is easy, but we caution big time headaches loom and details are far from etched in stone once to the second half of this forecast period.
First thing’s first and that’s today. Look for a continuation of bitterly cold air, but slow moderation will be noted this afternoon: Not AS bitter and lighter winds. We may even crack the 20 degree mark! I know, break out the swim suits, right?! This moderating trend is setting the tone for a more significant jump in the mercury later in the week. Before a “taste of spring” arrives, we’ll have to deal with a brief opportunity for freezing drizzle Monday evening. Temperatures will zoom to around 50 Tuesday and around 60 for mid week. Showers will be with us off and on- focused on Tuesday and Thursday for most widespread coverage.
Then comes the “fun.” A strong, sprawling arctic high will push south into the northern Plains Friday. At the same time, “resistance” from the southeast ridge (that can be thanked for the spring-like feel here Wednesday and Thursday) will result in the arctic front only slowly being able to push south. Ripples of energy, or waves of low pressure, will move along the arctic boundary and result in periods of widespread precipitation Friday into the weekend. As the cold, dense arctic air oozes south, we have concern for icing- freezing rain and sleet Friday into Saturday. Depending on how things evolve, this may continue into Sunday, as well. If you have travel plans this weekend, please keep a close eye on the developments in the forecast from Friday on. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Snowfall: 1.00″
Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/08/changeable-weather-late-week-ice-threat/
Jan 07
1.) Coast-to-coast cold: The Lower 48 is waking up in an ice box this morning as widespread arctic air and below normal temperatures engulf the country (minus the FL peninsula this morning). The arctic express will remain with us through the weekend, including temperatures once again tonight that threaten to dip into the sub-zero range across central Indiana. Highs today will only reach the middle 10s and upper 10s to lower 20s Sunday. Bundle up and stay warm.
2.) Expanding Snowpack: 65.4% of the country is covered in snow this morning. The cold, arctic high suppressed the winter storm threat south as we alluded to in previous posts. Places across the Deep South that aren’t used to wintry precipitation are waking up to snowy and icy conditions this morning, including MS, AL, GA, SC, and into the Mid Atlantic. Heavier snowfall accumulated across east TN, including 5″-8″ in the high country. Heavy snow also fell through western and central NC and Blizzard Warnings are up in rare areas including VA Beach this morning.
3.) Moderating Temperatures: Our air flow will back around to the southwest and this will help temperatures begin to moderate early next week (around freezing Monday and all the way to around 50 Tuesday). As the moderating trend gets underway, we may have to deal with a brief period of freezing drizzle/ freezing rain Monday evening.
4.) Rainy Midweek: A more significant surge of moisture will arrive midweek and result in periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday PM into Thursday. Potential is present for 1″+ during this timeframe.
5.) Weekend Wintry “Fun And Games?” A tremendous battle will take place next weekend between a strong and sprawling arctic high pressure system and the southeast ridge. In between it’ll be fascinating to watch things unfold, and as you’d imagine, that includes Indiana. Despite the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle, the concern here is that the shallow dense arctic air will “ooze” south and present an icy set-up for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid West for the weekend. We still have some time to watch this, but the potential of significant icing is very much present for some and this will require a close eye through the week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/07/saturday-morning-rambles-9/
Jan 06
Highlights:
Heavy Winter Gear Required…We’ll watch a significant winter storm impact the southern states this weekend with heavy snow and ice accumulations. Here on the home-front, expect bitterly cold conditions with dry skies. Clouds tonight should keep most areas around zero. That’s frigid in and of itself, but should skies clear, temperatures will easily fall below zero. Very cold conditions remain Sunday.
We’ll back our air flow around to the southwest early next week and this will help give temperatures a big boost by the mid week period. Gusty southwest winds and showers will be with us, as well.
A complex weather pattern will set up to close out the week. The clash of air masses between a sprawling strong arctic high and an equally impressive southeast ridge will be fun to watch, but not to forecast. It’s very possible unseasonably warm conditions of Thursday give way to much colder weather going into next weekend as the arctic high helps “ooze” dense, shallow, cold air south. At the same time, waves of low pressure will move along the pressing arctic front and periods of heavy precipitation will result. Conditions should grow cold enough by Friday into Saturday for the precipitation to fall as an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain across portions of central Indiana. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/06/bitter-weekend-changeable-weather-next-week/
Jan 05
Highlights:
Snowy Thursday…Light snow developed during the predawn hours and made for a slick morning commute across central Indiana. We note a steadier band of snow currently falling south of the city for places like Bedford, Columbus, and Seymour as of this update (9:30a). As additional energy pushes across the state late morning into the afternoon, look for snow to expand in coverage and intensity for a time across more of central Indiana around lunchtime into the early afternoon before sliding off to the east. Our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:
Conditions will remain bitterly cold (most of today is spent in the 10s), and with even the slightest bit of snow cover, conditions will turn even more frigid to end the week. Area-wide single digits can be expected to begin the day Friday (Saturday and Sunday, as well) with wind chills below zero. Dry conditions return this weekend. We’ll watch as our friends to the south enjoy a winter storm from Alabama, northern GA, into the Carolinas.
Moderating temperatures return early next week and as the warm advection begins Monday, it could help produce a wintry mix by evening before precipitation transitions to rain Tuesday, along with a breezy SW wind.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/05/snow-intensifies-again-early-afternoon-turning-much-colder/
Jan 03
Highlights:
The Ice Box Returns…An arctic cold front will sweep through the state tonight and help usher in a drastically colder feel as we progress through the middle and latter parts of the week. Left over rain showers this evening may end as a couple of snow flurries before precipitation comes to an end. Winds will really increase tonight behind the cold front, gusting between 30 and 40 MPH. This will lead to single digit wind chill values out the door Wednesday morning.
Our next weather disturbance arrives Thursday morning and will help spread light snow across the southern half of the state. Snow will continue into the early afternoon before departing off to the east. Light accumulations (around 1″) will be possible, especially from Indianapolis and points south. We’ll keep an eye on fresh data coming into the forecast office tonight and update if need be.
Otherwise, the big story going into the weekend will be the return of bitterly cold air. In fact, overnight lows will drop into the single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings. Dress warmly if you have plans to be outside for any length of time.
Our air flow will back around to the southwest early next week and temperatures will begin to moderate. Moisture may make it to the surface to create a little spotty freezing drizzle Monday evening before temperatures sky-rocket to around 50 Tuesday as showers return.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/03/bitterly-cold-air-returns/
Jan 02
Through (5) weeks of meteorological winter, it’s been a frustrating time for snow and cold weather enthusiasts across the beautiful state of Indiana. We’ve seen a few storms cut into the central Lakes, taking their respected snow swaths northwest of central Indiana. Despite an “overachieving” arctic wave on the 13th and an icy glaze event the following Friday night, it’s been a rather uneventful winter so far. In ironic fashion, a significant winter event is poised to impact portions of the Lower 48 this weekend, but the general consensus in modeling is for this event not to cut northwest, but, instead, remain suppressed and impact portions of the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians with heavy snow. Now, sure, there’s still time for this to “correct” north, but as of this writing, there’s just as much argument in the suppressed idea.
Admittedly, we, personally, believed we would be much farther along in the snowfall department than we are through the first 1/3 of meteorological winter. Looking ahead, there really isn’t much to “like” about the longer term data as far as getting snow prospects. Sure, an arctic shot is still inbound come mid week with very cold air. We note AK ridging and blocking “trying” to develop over Greenland.
This will take us through mid week and into the weekend with lows in the single digits and lower teens and highs generally in the lower and middle 20s. We still need to watch Thursday evening-night for a wave of low pressure that may attempt to deliver light snow, but this doesn’t look like a significant event from this distance.
Additionally, we’ll keep a close eye on the weekend for the prospects of snow, but confidence remains very low in regards to this system. The GFS ensemble members show the wide range of possibilities Saturday. Taken verbatim, the respected (or not ;-)) solutions, range from “no snow for you” scenarios to a big hit.
To further complicate matters, the European and Canadian solutions are much less robust and result in a more suppressed scenario. Forecasters (including yours truly) can only wish for the days to return of worrying about respected snow/ mix/ rain lines amongst the various data, versus the present time of models showing a storm only to take it away from run-to-run and other modeling not even showing the storm.
But once to mid-month, the overall pattern is forecast to break down yet again and results in a much warmer look for the east.
That brings us to our next point and that’s the modeling performance, itself. For really the better part of a year now, modeling has been poor, at best- even in the short-term solutions. More recently speaking to the last few months, I can’t recall model data ever performing worse (13 years of forecasting experience). It leads to a very low confidence forecast in basically anything beyond (7) days right now. Additionally, conflicting signals are present (as posted this morning, the AO, EPO, WPO favor cold versus the MJO strongly favoring warmth in the longer range). The signals are competing with themselves to try and take over the overall weather pattern for mid and late winter, but I’m not sure we’re really ever going to get to a point where we “lock-in” to any one particular warm or cold pattern for any sustained length of time this winter. As far as snow goes, there’s no way in early January you’ll ever see us greatly alter the long-standing ideas posted originally in the winter outlook. When a given city averages 26″ of snow on the winter, it only takes one storm to come along and put you in a “good spot” (relative to average). That said, we hear your frustrations (and know they will only grow louder this weekend if our friends down south cash in on the snowy goods). Once to late January, we’ll revisit this idea.
The one thing we try to do here is eliminate the “noise” in the short, mid, and long range data by analyzing it all and building a forecast using a blend of the said data, along with teleconnections, etc. You’ll never see us update our forecast based on a model run every time in comes in. We don’t buy into the idea of “knee jerk” forecasting. Let’s sit back and watch the next few days unfold. Unfortunately, in this weather pattern, we just don’t see confidence increasing in forecasts much past the 3-7 day window at this juncture.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/02/winter-having-a-tough-time-finding-staying-power/