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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/29/dangerous-cold-now-accumulating-snow-by-thursday-evening/
Jan 28
Severe Arctic Blast; Looking Ahead…
The first of two cold fronts is sweeping through the state this evening. Temperatures are turning cold enough to combine with leftover moisture and light snow showers to result in…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/28/severe-arctic-blast-looking-ahead/
Jan 27
Period Of Severe Cold Arrives Early-Mid Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/27/period-of-severe-cold-arrives-early-mid-week/
Jan 22
Briefly Milder Ahead Of Next Cold Stretch; Late Week Snow Makers…
After a cold stretch (8 of the past 12 days have been below average here across central Indiana), we’ll be on the milder side of a storm for a change tonight into Wednesday.
This will not only lead to a briefly milder period (and by brief, we mean BRIEF) late tonight into early Wednesday, but will also deliver a round of rain. While we’ll rise into the 30s later this evening, temperatures will continue to rise during the overnight- potentially into the lower 40s ahead of the cold front. Drizzle (perhaps freezing drizzle at the onset) will move in later this evening, but the heavier rain will hold off until after midnight. Periods of moderate rain can be expected between 2a and 8a Wednesday.
Widespread 0.50″ to 0.75″ can be expected across central Indiana.
The cold front will sweep through the state during the day Wednesday and temperatures will begin to fall once again Wednesday afternoon. A brief period of light snow is possible as the precipitation shield departs Wednesday afternoon, but this isn’t expected to be a big deal. We should be back below freezing around 5p to 6p Wednesday.
From there, the pattern will remain active and quite wintry. We’re tracking (3) individual pieces of upper level energy that will likely be enough to generate at least light snow into the weekend. The initial disturbance is associated with an arctic front that will blow through town Thursday evening. These are notorious for igniting snow showers and heavier “bursts.” You’ll certainly notice an increasingly bitter feel Thursday PM.
A couple additional disturbances are likely ahead of a reinforcing plunge of arctic air early next week. The system Saturday evening into early Sunday looks strongest at this time and will be capable of depositing a more widespread light accumulating snow across the region.
Yet another arctic intrusion is set to invade before we put a wrap on January. This will likely also be accompanied by additional opportunities of accumulating snow early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/22/briefly-milder-ahead-of-next-cold-stretch-late-week-snow-makers/
Jan 08
First Widespread Snow Event of the Season…
The first widespread Ohio Valley snow event of the season is on deck this weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/08/first-widespread-snow-event-of-the-season/
Jan 07
Rain By Lunchtime And More Active Times In The Days Ahead…
Rain will overspread the state early afternoon and most area rain gauges can expect to accumulate between one tenth and one quarter inch by this evening. Tuesday is a day…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/07/rain-by-lunchtime-and-more-active-times-in-the-days-ahead/
Jan 06
Week Ahead Outlook: Relatively Quiet Times Remain…
I. Today won’t feature nearly as much sunshine as we enjoyed Saturday, but considering it’s early-January, we can’t complain about mid-upper 40s and dry conditions. Morning fog in spots will burn off to increasing mid and high level cloudiness today ahead of our approaching Monday storm system.
II. A cold front will push rain back into the state as we open the work week. Rain will reach greatest coverage around the lunchtime hour into the early afternoon. Overall, central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate somewhere between 0.10″ and 0.25″ Monday.
Note this storm system won’t have a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) connection. Thus, the reason behind the lighter rainfall numbers compared to recent events.
III. Colder air will pour in behind the storm system. Highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday. Dry times return.
IV. A weak system may deliver rain or snow next weekend, but modeling differs on how they handle this energy. We’ll keep an eye on things and update accordingly.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/06/week-ahead-outlook-relatively-quiet-times-remain/
Jan 04
Trying to Answer Questions When Winter Will Show Up…
Daily, we’re receiving questions around if and when winter will show up. While admittedly later than originally thought here, we’ve never been in the camp of “throwing the towel” in on winter. Our winter outlook that includes below normal cold and near average snowfall remains unchanged.
Before we get into some of our reasons why we think winter will show up (and likely make up for lost time), the upcoming week will remain much warmer than average.
We’re tracking (3) storm systems that will deal the region rain over the upcoming week:
- Southern IN this afternoon and evening
- All of the state Monday
- All of the state next Friday into Saturday
As a whole, rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive for most, with 7-day totals between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for central portions of the state. Heavier amounts can be expected across southern areas.
Now, let’s look ahead to some potentially colder times. Before moving forward, it’s important that we recognize models have attempted once already to drive in a wholesale pattern change to colder (originally thought to be underway now). Perhaps it’s a case of “delayed, but not denied.” There’s a lot going on behind the scenes:
- Sudden stratospheric warming event and potential polar vortex displacement, etc.
- SOI flipping from a Niña-like state to one we’d expect to see associated with an El Niño
- Active MJO remains
There are significant changes brewing in the arctic/ higher latitudes that have to raise an eyebrow at the very least.
Today
Mid-January
Note the higher pressures building over the upcoming 10-14 days in the arctic regions.
Not surprisingly, the models begin to tank the AO.
The PNA rises…
Something that also lends credence to a potential pattern shift is the recent SOI drop.
This would tend to suggest that an active storm track may be in place as the more bonafide cold shift is underway.
The moral of the story? Despite the milder period being extended a couple weeks longer than originally thought, there’s still a lot on the table this winter. It’s far too early to think winter’s over before it’s really even begun for most. We expect to see increasingly wintry conditions show up around the middle of January…
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/04/trying-to-answer-questions-when-winter-will-show-up/
Jan 03
VIDEO: Looking at the Upcoming 7-Days…
We’re tracking a couple of storm systems and a continued overall warmer than normal pattern through the upcoming 7-days…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/03/video-looking-at-the-upcoming-7-days/
Jan 03
NEW JMA Weeklies Highlight Overall Mild Pattern…
Winter has been on hold over the past few weeks, and there’s really nothing that looks to shake that up anytime soon (at least through the upcoming 10-14 days).
The new JMA Weeklies are in this morning and they continue to highlight the mild times:
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
This is a rather dramatic reversal from what this particular model was saying only last week- when it was bringing winter back with authority by Week 2 on. One could easily argue that even out to the Weeks 3-4 time frame that this certainly isn’t an ideal look for “stick and hold” cold to eventually push into the East.
There is a lot going on “behind the scenes” right now and this isn’t us saying winter’s over before it really even began, but it continues to look more and more likely that any sort of sustained cold and potentially snowy times will have to remain on hold until potentially late month. The roaring PAC jet will likely continue to have it’s say until then…
(More later tonight on some of the items that argue for winter to get going as we progress into late January and beyond).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/03/new-jma-weeklies-highlight-overall-mild-pattern/