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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/03/all-access-video-wet-ky-derby-may-pattern-check-up/
May 01
Time To Duke It Out…
We know the upcoming (10) day period is going to feature a continuation of above average rainfall, but what lies beyond that? Ensemble data is entirely in two different camps once we get to the Day 10-15 period.
GEFS:
EPS:
Talk about a night and day difference. This would result in widespread 70s and 80s should the GEFS prove accurate (and put our May outlook in jeopardy) versus 50s and 60s should the European turn out to be correct (more in line with our monthly outlook). Unfortunately, from a precipitation perspective, wetter than normal times are expected to continue for the balance of the month of May and the data is in more agreement from that perspective- despite the vast differences at 500mb.
When we look at the latest CFSv2, it’s more in line with the European camp, including rather widespread chilly, damp weather for the mid-to-late May time period.
The combination of a negative NAO and AO, though not nearly to the extent of chill found in late winter/ early spring, do continue to hint at cooler than normal times in May. Eventually I would expect the GEFS to trend cooler, as well.
Furthermore, the PNA (currently negative) is forecast to trend positive by mid-May and that supports the cooler anomalies returning to our immediate region.
We’ll also have to keep close tabs on the MJO and see if it wants to propagate through Phases 5-8, or go back in the “wheelhouse” and really not be a factor. (More to come there).
To sum things up, we don’t see an end in sight to the overall wetter than average pattern as we progress into the middle of May. We’re less confident on the overall temperature pattern, but lean towards the EPS and CFSv2 “winning” over the warm GEFS solution in the end.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/01/time-to-duke-it-out/
May 01
Wednesday Morning All-Access Video: Periods Of Storms; Wet Pattern Remains In Place For Week 2…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/01/wednesday-morning-all-access-video-periods-of-storms-wet-pattern-remains-in-place-for-week-2/
Apr 30
All-Access Video Update: Wet; Active Pattern Continues Into Next Week…
Good morning, friends! This morning’s video takes a deeper look at the overall pattern and drivers behind the active and wetter than normal weather pattern. Unfortunately, this overall wet regime…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/30/all-access-video-update-wet-active-pattern-continues-into-next-week/
Apr 29
Muggy Meter Goes Up Into Midweek; Timing Out Periods Of More Concentrated Showers And Storms…
A frontal boundary remains draped across central Indiana and will remain in place through Tuesday evening before lifting north as a warm front. A large temperature spread can be expected on either side of this frontal boundary tomorrow (40s and 50s north of the front to near 80 south of the boundary). More specific to Indianapolis, itself, it’s very possible temperatures may vary by as much as 10-15 degrees from northern and southern ‘burbs tomorrow afternoon.
Before the front lifts north as a warm front, a ripple of energy will move along the boundary Tuesday morning, helping to lead to more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity before sunrise.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain in our forecast Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, especially for western and northern parts of the region. As the warm front lifts north, we’ll notice a significantly warmer and increasingly moist air mass Tuesday night into the day Wednesday.
Guidance suggests additional rainfall amounts between now and Wednesday night will check in between 0.50″ and 1″ for the majority of central Indiana, with heavier amounts of 1″ to 3″ for northern Indiana.
A couple of additional disturbances will move northeast across the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend. As such, we expect additional periods of more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to occur Thursday (image 1 below) and Friday evening into the first part of Saturday (especially across the southern half of the state- image 2 below).
Guidance as of Monday evening suggests central Indiana could accumulate an additional 0.50″ to 1″ in the Thursday through Saturday period with locally heavier amounts.
Looking longer term, after what should be a dry close to the weekend, rain and storms quickly return to the picture during the early parts of next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/29/muggy-meter-goes-up-into-midweek-timing-out-periods-of-more-concentrated-showers-and-storms/
Apr 29
VIDEO: Unsettled Week Takes On An Increasingly Muggy Feel…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/29/video-unsettled-week-takes-on-an-increasingly-muggy-feel/
Apr 28
VIDEO: Unsettled Week Ahead; Reviewing Our May Outlook…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/28/video-unsettled-week-ahead-reviewing-our-may-outlook/
Apr 27
Finalized May Outlook: One Word? Volatile
Averages for May are as follows:
*High: 72.8
*Low: 52.6
*Rainfall: 5.05″
*Snowfall: Trace
When all is said and done, this is how we see the last month of meteorological spring shaping up:
Medium and longer range guidance has been anything but consistent over the past few weeks for May, which doesn’t help in producing a monthly outlook. A large part of this may have to do with the renewed hyperactive MJO.
This can lead to volatile swings in the overall pattern as we get into the mid to late part of the month. Early on, confidence is higher in a “battle” setting up between late season anomalous cold across the north and budding summer-like warmth across the south.
This will help add fuel to the fire in what should be an overall wet month across a large portion of the country.
With that said, we think ridging is likely to keep the extreme southeastern region drier than normal for the bulk of the month.
As we look towards mid-May, that battle between southeastern ridging and troughiness across the northern region continues to argue for active times remaining.
Speaking more specific to central IN and the greater OHV region overall, we think a cooler and wetter than normal month awaits. Unfortunately, delays are likely to continue from an agriculture/ Plant ’19 perspective…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/27/finalized-may-outlook-one-word-volatile/
Apr 25
Special Evening Video Update On Next Week’s Flood Threat…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/25/special-evening-video-update-on-next-weeks-flood-threat/
Apr 24
VIDEO: Scattered Shower Chances Increase This Evening; Wet Pattern Develops Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/24/video-scattered-shower-chances-increase-this-evening-wet-pattern-develops-next-week/